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25 October 2023
Albanese and Biden want to build an alliance for the future, does Congress?
By Victoria Cooper, Research Editor
All the expected pomp and ceremony of Anthony Albanese’s official visit to the United States will reach a high point over the coming two days as the prime minister is officially hosted at the White House by the Bidens for a state dinner and meetings in the Oval Office.
With so much vying for the attention of President Biden, and complex world challenges causing some interruption to the visit – even to the scheduled performance of The B52s – there’s much to distract Albanese from his task of “building an alliance for the future," through closer Australia-US cooperation on climate, national security and defence and the emergence of new technologies.
Yet, the announcement of Microsoft’s A$5 billion investment in Australia’s skilled tech workforce and cybersecurity on day one of Albanese’s trip, and the announcement of the Australian Government spending a further $2 billion for Australia’s mining and processing of critical minerals to accelerate, imply the prime minister is all guns blazing towards closer cooperation. President Biden’s commitment to hosting the Australian prime minister at such a difficult time also shows the administration’s investment in its Indo-Pacific allies, despite other competing and urgent priorities.
But threading the needle on other alliance aspirations like accelerating progress on AUKUS is more likely to hit resistance by a dysfunctional US Congress. The unresolved fight for the House speaker’s gavel has made doubtful an Albanese address to a joint session of Congress – a ceremonious opportunity afforded to India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol during their state visits earlier this year – and is a lost chance for the Prime Minister to push for the export control reforms needed to implement the AUKUS submarine deal.
While this opportunity passes, polling from the USSC in 2022 should inspire some hope for the “alliance of the future.” USSC polling last year showed the plurality of Americans who knew of the AUKUS pact agreed that it is a good idea for Australia to have nuclear-powered submarines. In fact, those Americans who agreed led those that disagreed by a margin of 2:1.
Where do Americans stand one year on? Subscribe to USSC publication alerts to get all the insights from the our latest polling report to be released on 1 November.
NEWS WRAP
Biden's Oval Office push for investment in America's future
- Oval Office oration | President Biden made a rare national address from the Oval Office last week, arguing strongly for US global leadership and engagement in addressing conflicts around the world. Biden linked the wars in Ukraine and Gaza to rally public support for a joint aid package, and spoke out against “all forms of hate,
whether against Muslims, Jews or anyone.” READ MORE HERE
- May it pleas the court | Former Trump lawyer Jenna Ellis pleaded guilty to assisting former president Trump in his efforts to overturn the result of the 2020 election in Georgia, becoming the fourth defendant in the case to reach a plea deal in exchange for assisting the prosecution. Nineteen people, including Trump and Rudy Giuliani, were initially indicted in Fulton County on racketeering charges. READ MORE HERE
- Speakership uproar silences Congress | Republican Representative Mike Johnson has been nominated for the House speakership following the withdrawal of Tom Emmer’s bid just hours after previously winning his party’s nomination. Emmer’s bid was strongly denounced by former president Trump on social media, and Johnson is now the fourth House Republican to attempt to win the speaker’s gavel. The deadlock has paralysed Congress amid deep Republican division over the direction of their party. READ MORE HERE
- Pratt story creates delicate Albanese optics | Scandal has engulfed Australian billionaire Anthony Pratt’s relationship with former president Trump after reports emerged that Trump told Pratt classified information, including on US nuclear submarines. The news reports have made the timing of Prime Minister Albanese’s state visit to the United States delicate, with former president Trump attacking media coverage of the unfolding story. READ MORE HERE
The alliance between Australia and the United States is central to Australia’s foreign policy... an alliance for the future.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese before departing for Washington DC | 22 October 2023
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
Did you USSC?
PODCAST | USSC Briefing Room | Republican state of play: House speaker race, Trump trials and conflict in Israel
As the deadlock over the House speakership continues, hear from Associate Professor David Smith for a breakdown of an incredibly tumultuous month in US politics. LISTEN TO THE EPISODE
COMMENTARY | Will the US leader hosting Albanese be the next president? There are wildcards on the menu
A year out from the US presidential election, Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe assesses the likelihood of President Biden’s re-election, and the chances that in 2025 Prime Minister Albanese will continue to work with a US president who shares his core beliefs and priorities. READ FULL ARTICLE
COMMENTARY | What’s on the economic security agenda for Albanese and Biden’s bilateral meeting?
With Prime Minister Albanese meeting with President Biden today to discuss the Australia-US alliance, Research Associate Georgia Edmonstone looks at how Australia can achieve key outcomes on industrial policy, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, and investment in the Pacific Islands. READ FULL ARTICLE
LATEST UPDATES | Where the ‘other’ 2024 Republican candidates stand on Australia and the world
With the confluence of crises facing the United States on the international stage, knowing where a future president stands on the US role in the world has never been more important. This week, Tim Scott spoke at length on his positions on international trade, while Nikki Haley emphasised the importance of the Indo-Pacific. Read the research from Research Associates Samuel Garrett and Ava Kalinauskas to find out where the non-Trump GOP candidates stand on the big foreign policy issues. READ THE LATEST
EVENT
Sydney International Strategy Forum
The inaugural Sydney International Strategy Forum brings together prominent thought leaders, policymakers and industry experts to tackle the big issues confronting Australia, the United States and the Indo-Pacific. From bolstering supply chain resilience to turning AUKUS into reality, the forum will discuss the enormous opportunities and risks posed by such cross-cutting challenges and what they mean for the future of our region. Read more here.
Tickets are still available, but strictly limited. Register now to secure your spot.
TYPE
Conference
WHERE
Four Seasons Hotel Sydney, 199 George Street, The Rocks NSW
WHEN
SYDNEY | 1 November 2023. 8.30am–4.30pm
COST
Ticket prices Student: $180 Full price: $560
BY THE NUMBERS
In uncertain world, the alliance enhances feelings of security
By Victoria Cooper, Research Editor
Concerns about the humanitarian crisis and potential for an expanding regional conflict in the Middle East, the fate of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and dysfunction in the US House threaten to overshadow opportunities for the Australia-US alliance to grow in scope and ambition during Albanese’s visit this week.
With so many delicate issues reaching fever pitch at once, it may appear a misjudgement for Albanese and Biden to devote so much attention and ceremony to their bilateral relationship. But, as the White House contended this week, demonstrating the resolve and strength of US alliances in these times of crisis is not only important, but essential.
With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dominating US foreign policy efforts in 2022, USSC polling from September that year showed a record-high 63 per cent of Americans thought their country’s transatlantic alliance with NATO made them more secure. This effect wasn’t just isolated to European allies, with the security benefits of the other US alliances with Australia (58 per cent), and Japan (49 per cent) also soaring to record highs in American public opinion.
Americans were not alone in this trend last year. Sixty-three per cent of Australians in 2022 said their alliance with the United States makes their country more secure, and when faced with a hypothetical question about the security benefits of an alliance with Japan, a strong majority (59 per cent) of Australians said an alliance would make them more secure.
Where do Americans and Australians stand on their alliances this year? On 1 November, the USSC will release its findings from its report One year from the 2024 presidential election: The stakes for Australia and the alliance, featuring unique findings from the Centre’s polling of Australian, Japanese and American publics.
To be first in line to hear the authors’ analysis of the findings, register to attend the USSC’s inaugural Sydney International Strategy Forum below, and for media enquiries email: ussc.media@sydney.edu.au
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United States Studies Centre
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University of Sydney NSW 2006
