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OCTOBER 2024
America votes as the world holds its breath
A message from the CEO
On November 5 Americans will vote amidst the most uncertain geopolitical setting in generations. American leadership matters...to Taiwan…to Ukraine…and to markets that continue to look to the United States as the source for a third of all capital in the global economy. In a perfect world the American public would vote with the international order first and foremost in their minds, but this election, like most elections around the world, is primarily about who people think will improve their personal economic and social situation the most.
And yet USSC polls do show that when asked the American people understand the dangerous era that we are in and the importance of alliances to preserving the peace. This strong consensus, plus the checks and balances in the American system (whereby the Constitution gives the House of Representatives authority over the budget and the Senate over confirmation of hundreds of administration positions), means that there will be more continuity than change no matter who wins, despite the possibility of dramatic and even unpredictable change in certain areas of politics and policy. As we explained in our Red book | Blue book assessment of scenarios for a Republican or Democratic administration, there is a lot of 'purple.'
Still, the candidates have said relatively little about what they would do in the Indo-Pacific, which is why we are hosting our Sydney International Strategy Forum two weeks after the election on November 20 to make sense of what comes next in the region and in Washington. We have a stellar lineup of people who have served in both Republican and Democratic administrations who can advise on the strategic approaches that will best align with the new administration. US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell will join us for a virtual address and we will also hear from former US National Security Council Director for Asia Matthew Turpin and former US Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy, Plans and Capabilities Mara Karlin. They’ll be joined by current and former elected officials and diplomats including Stephanie Murphy, Air Chief Marshall Sir Angus Houston AK, AFC (Ret’d), Akihisa Nagashima, Dennis Richardson AC, Kristen Silverberg and many more.
There are some seats still remaining, so I encourage you to make sure to reserve your space now so you do not miss out on what will be an unforgettable event.
We look forward to continuing to provide our analysis of America, insights for Australia and solutions for the Alliance through this critical period.
Sincerely,
Dr Michael Green
CEO, United States Studies Centre
Election watch 2024
Countdown to the US presidential election
Perhaps the biggest October surprise was that there's been no major October surprise. As the polls have once again tightened, USSC experts provided their analysis on the latest developments in the lead up to the US presidential election.
Latest polling and election trends
- WATCH | State of the race with Bruce Wolpe, Ava Kalinauskas and Mari Koeck
- INTERVIEW | The seven battleground states that could decide the US election with Associate Prof. David Smith
- OP-ED | Has Kamala Harris reached the ceiling of her ability to make gains against Trump? by Jared Mondschein
- INTERVIEW | Donald Trump has advantage on the US economy over Kamala Harris with Dr John Kunkel
- INTERVIEW | Election comes down to the wire with Bruce Wolpe
- OP-ED | How podcasters became the vanguard of the US election by Ava Kalinauskas
- INTERVIEW | Hasan Piker is part of a new group of influencers shaping the US election in unlikely places with Dr Rodney Taveira
- OP-ED | Trump is the Titanic, but is Harris the iceberg? by Bruce Wolpe
- OP-ED | Why my small town in Pennsylvania will decide the US election by Sarah Smiles Persinger
VP debate
- OP-ED | Vance wasn’t weird in the VP debate – and that will infuriate Trump by Bruce Wolpe
- INTERVIEW | Tim Walz and JD Vance's 2024 VP debate. Who won? with Samuel Garrett
- INTERVIEW | The low-octane veep debate with Jared Mondschein
- OP-ED | Why the Vance-Walz debate is more important for 2028 by Samuel Garrett
Looking for a US election expert? Contact us on ussc.media@sydney.edu.au.
NEWS
Second annual WITA Dinner
On Monday this week, USSC hosted its second annual Women in the Alliance Dinner. The second cohort of the Women in the Alliance Network was announced at the dinner. This accomplished group of talented female professionals will meet quarterly for roundtables with pre-eminent experts, career development sessions and other exclusive opportunities inviting their perspective and fostering solutions for the alliance.
The dinner featured distinguished keynote speakers, including Ms Rachel Noble PSM, former Director-General of the Australian Signals Directorate and was attended by senior leaders working across fields with relevance to the Australia-US relationship.
Learn more about USSC’s Women in the Alliance initiative here.
US Presidential Study Tour returns
The first cohort of study abroad students travelling to Washington DC departed from Sydney last week. Led by Senior Lecturer in American Studies Dr Kathryn Schumaker and Student Mobility Manager Paulo Olivares students will spend two weeks in the United States, culminating in being part of the action for the US presidential election in Washington DC. They will attend exclusive events including a networking reception at the Australian Embassy with diplomats, government officials, fellow participants and alumni.
USSC teams up with SMH
This month, USSC partnered with The Sydney Morning Herald (SMH) for an exclusive event in the lead up to the US presidential election.
SMH’s Editor Bevan Shields, Political and International Editor Peter Hartcher and Columnist and Senior Writer Jacqueline Maley joined USSC’s CEO Dr Michael Green and Director of Research Jared Mondschein to unpack key issues of the upcoming election.
More than 150 attendees joined us at the University of Sydney Holme Building for this energised discussion.
Student trivia night
One week before the election, the American Studies team hosted another one of their popular trivia nights. Students gathered in the upstairs room at The Marlborough for a fact and fun-filled evening, hosted by Senior Lecturer Dr Rodney Taveira with trivia questions provided by Quizmaster extraordinaire Associate Professor David Smith. There was a strong turnout at one of the final events in the lead up to election day.
Competition in cyberspace with Admiral (ret) Mike Rogers and John Barron
USSC hosted senior US expert on cybersecurity and geopolitics, Admiral (ret) Mike Rogers this month for a public event looking at cyber issues – from global banking and financial transactions, to managing critical infrastructure and supply chains, to social media. He was joined by co-host of ABC’s Planet America John Barron to consider how to tackle some of the most pressing cyber and national security challenges of our time.
New Debate Paper tackles climate change
In the latest instalment of its Debate Paper series, the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney invited two climate policy experts to consider: Should the United States, Australia and like-minded allies cooperate or compete with China when it comes to fighting climate change?
Author Xuyang Dong, China energy policy analyst at Climate Energy Finance, makes the case for collaboration by arguing that because climate change is the defining challenge and common enemy of our age, nations should emphasise cooperation and more willingly deploy China’s cleantech exports.
Author Noah Gordon, acting co-director of the Sustainability, Climate and Geopolitics program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, argues for the benefits of competition, looking at how competing with China galvanised unprecedented US action on climate change.
NATO IP4 delegation visits
A NATO delegation with representatives from eight NATO countries and ambassadors from Croatia, Latvia and the Netherlands joined USSC for a robust roundtable discussion this month. As NATO has stepped up efforts with the Indo-Pacific Four (IP4) countries (Australia, Japan, the Republic of Korea and New Zealand), USSC has been on the forefront of fostering conversations around areas of mutual interest.
Catch all USSC-NATO event replays here.
Special event tonight
Join us tonight for a special event featuring USSC’s 2024 Maitri Fellow Riya Sinha to discuss themes from her upcoming report: Building bridges across the Indian Ocean: Australia-India cooperation for connectivity and growth. She will explore key themes around offering a resilient and strategic alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative in conversation with USSC Director of Economic Security Hayley Channer.
Understanding the election webinar
This week, the American Studies program hosted an exclusive webinar for secondary teachers providing an overview of key trends in the US election and what they need to know for their classroom. Watch the webinar replay here.
New brief examines Australia-South Korea relationship
USSC Director of Foreign Policy and Defence Prof. Peter Dean published a brief this month looking at the history and future of the Australia-South Korea partnership. The brief analyses the three pillars of the partnership and opportunities to deepen existing ties through Track 1, 1.5 and 2 efforts as well as potential expansions such as allowing South Korea to dock into AUKUS.
USSC partners with Film versus Film podcast
This month, USSC partnered with the Film versus Film podcast for a series of special episodes in the lead up to the US presidential election. This six-part series analysed classic and modern movies centred around US politics. The series analysed match-ups like All the President’s Men (1976) vs The Dismissal (1983) and Dave (1993) vs Election (1998). Check out the full series here.
USSC perspectives
As the US presidential election approaches, attention turned toward comparisons between the US and Australian election systems and what the next POTUS will mean for the region.
- How Australia can fix America’s broken election system by Prof. Benjamin Reilly and Ava Kalinauskas. First published in the Australian Financial Review.
- Trump’s garden party has echoes of America’s Nazi moment by Bruce Wolpe. First published in the Sydney Morning Herald.
- Australia’s missile ambitions are the key to our future defence by Prof. Peter Dean and Alice Nason. First published in the Australian Financial Review.
- Donald Trump and Peter Dutton have both embraced populism. Are working-class voters buying it? by Associate Prof. David Smith. First published in The Conversation.
- Australia should champion Indian Ocean port development by Riya Sinha. First published in The Strategist.
EVENT
CONFERENCE
New speakers announced for Sydney International Strategy Forum 2024
The USSC is delighted to confirm the remaining speakers for its second inaugural Sydney International Strategy Forum (SISF) on 20 November 2024.
Titled: The future of American leadership and a contested Asia, the forum will explore how the next US administration will work with Australia, Japan and others to address key challenges in the region, providing unrivalled insight into the next steps on AUKUS, defence cooperation and US trade policy.
The new speakers include US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell (virtual), former Chief of the Australian Defence Force Air Chief Marshal Sir Angus Houston AK, AFC (Ret’d), former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asia Heino Klinck, DFAT First Assistant Secretary Peter Sawczak, former Australian Ambassador to the United States Arthur Sinodinos AO and renowned Australian journalists Peter Hartcher, Geraldine Doogue AO, Cameron Stewart and Paul Kelly.
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
Videos and podcasts
The latest recordings from our webinars are available on our YouTube channel and USSC Live podcast. Find all of the Centre’s podcast recordings here. You can now listen to USSC Briefing Room on YouTube.
- WEBINAR | State of the race with Bruce Wolpe, Ava Kalinauskas and Mari Koeck
- PODCAST | USSC Briefing Room | What Australians think about the US alliance? with Jared Mondschein, Samuel Garrett and Mari Koeck
- PODCAST | The Asia Chessboard | US-China relations from the inside with Rick Waters, Dr Michael Green and Jude Blanchette
- WEBINAR | Understanding the 2024 US Election: A webinar for educators with Dr Kathryn Robinson
- PODCAST | USSC Briefing Room | AI, disinformation and the US presidential election with Helen Zhang and Mari Koeck
- PODCAST | The Asia Chessboard | Myanmar after the coup with Aaron Connelly, Dr Michael Green and Jude Blanchette
- PODCAST | USSC Briefing Room | Energy security and the US-Australia alliance with Jane Nakano and Mari Koeck
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United States Studies
Centre
Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006
