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1 November 2023
One year from the 2024 presidential election, what do Australians think of the US alliance?
A majority of Australians believe their US alliance makes Australia more secure, decreasing numbers think war with China is likely than in previous years and 37 per cent of Australians would want to withdraw from the US alliance if Donald Trump is re-elected, according to a new poll from the United States Studies Centre (USSC) at the University of Sydney.
In One year from the 2024 US presidential election: The stakes for Australia and the alliance, report authors Director of Research Jared Mondschein and Research Editor Victoria Cooper, with research associates Samuel Garrett and Ava Kalinauskas, found a nine per cent drop from 2022 in the number of Australians who see conflict with China as very or somewhat likely.
The report, launched today at the Sydney International Strategy Forum, surveyed over 1,000 Australian, American and Japanese respondents on their views on the key issues affecting the future of the Indo-Pacific and their US alliances.
As Mondschein told ABC News today: "The Australian public seems to believe that deterrence is working."
Nearly half of Australian respondents say a second Trump term would be bad or very bad for Australia, but more Australians still want to stay in their alliance with the United States than withdraw if he wins the 2024 election.
Additionally, despite a year of turmoil in Washington, views of US political dysfunction remain largely unchanged from last year, while the impact of the US 2024 election on Asian alliances may be less significant than anticipated.
Stay tuned for an upcoming episode of the USSC Briefing Room podcast in which co-authors Jared Mondschein and Victoria Cooper dive deep into all the facts, stats and figures of the report.
NEWS WRAP
Biden and Harris set for Xi, Sunak meetings
- Convo in San Francisco | President Biden is set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping for a "constructive conversation" on the sidelines of
the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit later this month. The announcement follows visits to China by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo earlier this year, and a visit by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Washington last month. READ MORE HERE
- Talks at No.10 | Vice President Kamala Harris is visiting the United Kingdom this week to discuss the crises in Ukraine and Israel with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, and will deliver a speech at a summit focused on creating guardrails around artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies. READ MORE HERE
- Pence spent | Former Vice President Mike Pence suspended his presidential campaign this week, becoming the first major Republican candidate to withdraw from the race for the GOP nomination. Despite his high profile, Pence struggled to attract significant support from Republican voters amid intense criticism from former President Trump over Pence's certification of the 2020 presidential election result. READ MORE HERE
- New speaker in the House | Little-known Representative Mike Johnson acceded to the US House speakership, ending weeks of gridlock within the Republican Party over selecting a successor to former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Johnson faces significant challenges to both unite his party and restart legislative movement after days of intractable debate. READ MORE HERE
"The alliance between Australia and the United States has never been more important than it is today. And we have never been more committed than we are today."
President Joe Biden at the state visit arrival ceremony for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese | 26 October 2023
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REPORT | One year from the 2024 US presidential election: The stakes for Australia and the alliance
In a new public opinion polling report, Director of Research Jared Mondschein, Research Editor Victoria Cooper, and research associates Samuel Garrett and Ava Kalinauskas delve into what Australian, American and Japanese public opinion means for Australia and its alliances, just one year away from the 2024 US presidential election. READ THE REPORT
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COMMENTARY | The Gaza war and the Korean Peninsula
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EVENT
The insider's guide to the 2024 US presidential election
One year out from the presidential election, and less than three months until the first of the Republican primary contests, the coming year is set to be a whirlwind of political drama — primaries, debates, conventions, the unprecedented legal trials of a former president and the US Constitution being tested as never before. With Joe Biden looking to cement his legacy as president, Republican candidates crisscrossing the country to shore up support, and Donald Trump ploughing his own path back to the Oval Office, on-the-ground insights are key to understanding a presidential race like no other.
Please join us for a live event with Politico Chief Washington Correspondent Ryan Lizza, and New York Magazine Washington Correspondent Olivia Nuzzi in conversation with USSC Director of Research Jared Mondschein, for an insider's guide to the 2024 election.
TYPE
Public event
WHERE
Auditorium, The Michael Spence Building (F23), Corner of Eastern Avenue and City Road, The University of Sydney, Camperdown NSW
WHEN
6 November 2023. 6.00pm–7.30pm
COST
Free, but registration is essential.
BY THE NUMBERS
Fewer Australians see war with China as likely
By Samuel Garrett, Research Associate
While the Australian military has seen record levels of investment, not least through the advent of the AUKUS partnership, and against the backdrop of China's increasing military capabilities in the region, fewer Australians than in 2022 see conflict with China as likely.
The results from a new poll by the United States Studies Centre, explored in One year from the 2024 US presidential election: The stakes for Australia and the alliance, reveal that the number of Australians who see conflict with China in the next decade as very or somewhat likely decreased from 58 per cent in 2022 to 49 per cent in 2023. At the same time, the proportion who see it as very unlikely jumped from 25 per cent to 32 per cent.
Negative views of China in the region remain prevalent in Australia, the United States and Japan. Roughly half of respondents in all three countries still believe China is mostly harmful in Asia, with just 15 per cent of Japanese respondents, compared to 29 per cent of Australians and 23 per cent of Americans saying that China is either helpful or makes no difference in the region.
The results paint a picture of a fraught, though not necessarily unsalvageable relationship between China, and the United States and its allies. With US President Biden slated to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month on the sidelines of the APEC Leaders' Meeting in San Francisco, it remains to be seen what steps both sides might take to ensure that strategic competition between the two superpowers does not spiral into deeper acrimony.
And, with the countdown on until the 2024 US presidential election, Australians will be watching to see what the future holds for their largest and most important ally.
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