No images? Click here 1 November 2023One year from the 2024 presidential election, what do Australians think of the US alliance?A majority of Australians believe their US alliance makes Australia more secure, decreasing numbers think war with China is likely than in previous years and 37 per cent of Australians would want to withdraw from the US alliance if Donald Trump is re-elected, according to a new poll from the United States Studies Centre (USSC) at the University of Sydney. In One year from the 2024 US presidential election: The stakes for Australia and the alliance, report authors Director of Research Jared Mondschein and Research Editor Victoria Cooper, with research associates Samuel Garrett and Ava Kalinauskas, found a nine per cent drop from 2022 in the number of Australians who see conflict with China as very or somewhat likely. The report, launched today at the Sydney International Strategy Forum, surveyed over 1,000 Australian, American and Japanese respondents on their views on the key issues affecting the future of the Indo-Pacific and their US alliances. As Mondschein told ABC News today: "The Australian public seems to believe that deterrence is working." Nearly half of Australian respondents say a second Trump term would be bad or very bad for Australia, but more Australians still want to stay in their alliance with the United States than withdraw if he wins the 2024 election. Additionally, despite a year of turmoil in Washington, views of US political dysfunction remain largely unchanged from last year, while the impact of the US 2024 election on Asian alliances may be less significant than anticipated. Stay tuned for an upcoming episode of the USSC Briefing Room podcast in which co-authors Jared Mondschein and Victoria Cooper dive deep into all the facts, stats and figures of the report. NEWS WRAPBiden and Harris set for Xi, Sunak meetings
![]() "The alliance between Australia and the United States has never been more important than it is today. And we have never been more committed than we are today." President Joe Biden at the state visit arrival ceremony for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese | 26 October 2023 IN CASE YOU MISSED IT Did you USSC?
EVENT The insider's guide to the 2024 US presidential electionOne year out from the presidential election, and less than three months until the first of the Republican primary contests, the coming year is set to be a whirlwind of political drama — primaries, debates, conventions, the unprecedented legal trials of a former president and the US Constitution being tested as never before. With Joe Biden looking to cement his legacy as president, Republican candidates crisscrossing the country to shore up support, and Donald Trump ploughing his own path back to the Oval Office, on-the-ground insights are key to understanding a presidential race like no other. Please join us for a live event with Politico Chief Washington Correspondent Ryan Lizza, and New York Magazine Washington Correspondent Olivia Nuzzi in conversation with USSC Director of Research Jared Mondschein, for an insider's guide to the 2024 election. TYPE WHEN COST BY THE NUMBERS Fewer Australians see war with China as likelyBy Samuel Garrett, Research Associate While the Australian military has seen record levels of investment, not least through the advent of the AUKUS partnership, and against the backdrop of China's increasing military capabilities in the region, fewer Australians than in 2022 see conflict with China as likely. The results from a new poll by the United States Studies Centre, explored in One year from the 2024 US presidential election: The stakes for Australia and the alliance, reveal that the number of Australians who see conflict with China in the next decade as very or somewhat likely decreased from 58 per cent in 2022 to 49 per cent in 2023. At the same time, the proportion who see it as very unlikely jumped from 25 per cent to 32 per cent. Negative views of China in the region remain prevalent in Australia, the United States and Japan. Roughly half of respondents in all three countries still believe China is mostly harmful in Asia, with just 15 per cent of Japanese respondents, compared to 29 per cent of Australians and 23 per cent of Americans saying that China is either helpful or makes no difference in the region. The results paint a picture of a fraught, though not necessarily unsalvageable relationship between China, and the United States and its allies. With US President Biden slated to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month on the sidelines of the APEC Leaders' Meeting in San Francisco, it remains to be seen what steps both sides might take to ensure that strategic competition between the two superpowers does not spiral into deeper acrimony. And, with the countdown on until the 2024 US presidential election, Australians will be watching to see what the future holds for their largest and most important ally. Manage your email preferences | Forward this email to a friend United States Studies Centre |