NEWS WRAP

"The pandemic is over"

• Biden’s COVID captain’s call | In an unexpected remark, President Biden told US TV program 60 Minutes, “the pandemic is over.”  This highlighted a rift in the White House as renewed messaging was recently launched to reiterate the need for vigilance, vaccine boosters and flue shots and the COVID team wasn’t told about the comment before it aired, even though the interview was pre-recorded. READ MORE HERE
   
• Martha’s Vineyard refugees are pawns in latest US partisan battle | A Texas sheriff opened a criminal investigation into Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ decision to send 48 refugees to Martha’s Vineyard without telling the refugees why. While winning support among the GOP, some legal experts say the actions count as human trafficking. READ MORE HERE
   
• Kremlin denies war crimes | Bodies exhumed from mass graves in eastern Ukraine show signs of violence and torture. EU President Jan Lipvasky called for Putin to face trial for war crimes, but the Kremlin is calling the discoveries “lies”. READ MORE HERE
   
• QAnon sentiment surges at Trump-JD Vance rally | Crowds at an Ohio rally for Trump-backed candidate JD Vance (leading Democratic opponent Tim Ryan by four points) held up the QAnon one-finger salute as the former president spoke. This was in response to a song resembling "1", the QAnon theme song, potentially Trump’s most overt alignment with the online conspiracy movement to date. READ MORE HERE
   
• GOP candidates signalling they won’t accept election loss | As midterms loom, six Trump-backed Republican candidates for Senate and governor would not say they commit to accepting the election results, when asked by The New York Times. This sets the stage for a drawn-out battle over the validity of the results for an election still seven weeks away. READ MORE HERE

WEBINAR

Universal voting: Can Australia's experience work in America? 

The simple act of voting – who can vote, how easy it is to vote, who counts the votes, who certifies the votes, and whether the people accept the legitimacy of the outcome of an election – is at the heart of the crisis of confidence in democracy in the United States. After studying voting practices in dozens of countries, E.J. Dionne Jr. and Miles Rapoport found Australia to be one of the most compelling and effective voting systems in the world. What will it take to begin to apply lessons from Australia of Universal Civic Duty Voting to the American experience? Are such fundamental reforms even remotely feasible?

To discuss these issues, please join the United States Studies Centre (USSC) webinar featuring co-authors of the new book, 100% Democracy: The case for universal voting, E.J. Dionne Jr., Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and syndicated columnist for The Washington Post and Miles Rapoport, Senior Practice Fellow at the Ash Centre at Harvard Kennedy School in conversation with USSC Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Bruce Wolpe and Research Associate, Victoria Cooper.

WHEN
SYDNEY | Friday, 30 September, 11am-12pm AEST
WASHINGTON DC | Thursday, 29 September, 9-10pm EDT
PERTH | Friday, 30 September, 9-10am AWST

COST
Free, but registration is essential

ANALYSIS

The AUKUS submarines must take aim at a distant moving target 

Dr Peter K. Lee
Research Fellow, United States Studies Centre

Much of the commentary about the AUKUS (Australia, United Kingdom, United States) partnership since it was announced a year ago on Thursday has focused on when and if Australia will see nuclear-powered submarines in service.

Given the distant timeline, many strategists have instead turned their focus to AUKUS’s second pillar on advanced defence capabilities, which will be the main deliverables for this decade. With projects on autonomous systems and hypersonic missiles among others, this trilateral collaboration will be consequential for tomorrow’s battlefield.

Notwithstanding pillar two, AUKUS will ultimately be judged by whether the submarine endeavour succeeds or fails. The sharing of nuclear propulsion technology is what sets the trilateral partnership apart from Australia’s already robust defence industrial and technological co-operation with the United States and the United Kingdom as well as US partnerships with other allies. It is this capability that has sparked intense regional interest, misunderstanding and no shortage of misinformation.

Defence Minister Richard Marles wants to bring the arrival date for the first submarine as far forward as possible. Equal attention should, however, also be given to when all eight submarines will be in service. Estimates vary widely depending on what kind of build configuration is ultimately chosen, but sometime in the mid-2050s is likely for the last submarine to be in the water. This is the full operational capability date that matters.

BY THE NUMBERS

Approval ratings: Biden vs Trump

Despite strong approval ratings for his first six months in office, since August 2021 President Biden's disapproval rating has been higher than his approval rating. From January to August 2021 Biden's approval rating averaged 10-13 points higher than President Trump during the same time period in his presidency. However, since the Afghanistan withdrawal, Biden's dipped below his predecessor and remained below Trump-levels for all of 2022.

In a promising turning point for the president, the Biden team's recent victories in legislation, foreign relations and domestic politics have seen his approval rating rise again and may overtake Trump's comparative approval ratings by the midterms on 8 November.

VIDEO

Address and report launch with Senator the Hon Penny Wong

One year ago, USSC hosted a webinar with then Shadow Foreign Minister Penny Wong.

Senator Wong delivered her remarks on “Australia's contribution to American engagement in the Indo-Pacific” in the wake of the AUKUS announcement, the 70th anniversary of the ANZUS Treaty and the Australia-US Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN) in Washington DC. She then joined a discussion on the United States’ role in the Indo-Pacific region and the way forward for Australian policy.

Catch more podcast and video analysis on the United States here.

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

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