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Trump's tariff's one year later
8 April 2026
The world continues to focus on the Middle East, as President Trump’s announcement this morning of a two-week “double sided CEASEFIRE!” triggered a 16% drop in Brent crude — the international benchmark for oil prices — to US$92.50 a barrel by 9am AEST. Yet, as the world fixates on the Strait of Hormuz, last week marked the one-year anniversary of US President Donald Trump’s 2 April ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs — a level of protectionism that shook the foundations of the global economy.
In “One year after Liberation Day: How Trump’s tariffs shaped Australia and the world,” USSC Research Fellow Robert Monterosso reveals that within this reconfigured economic order, Australian trade remains dependent on China. He argues that Australia failed to leverage its initial tariff advantages, with 75% of Australia's trade gains with the United States stemming from rising gold prices rather than broader economic diversification.
Ultimately, Monterosso finds that global commerce moved away from the United States and towards geopolitical groupings, while China shifted “its trade towards ASEAN countries, Russia and the Middle East.”
Taken together, these outcomes highlight a broader strategic reality: in an increasingly contested global economy, diversifying trade partnerships is “a matter of strategic resilience” rather than commercial preference.
Han-Keul Page
Media and Publications Officer
Lead artwork: United States Studies Centre
"Not only were the jobs numbers GREAT yesterday, 178,000 new jobs, but the TRADE DEFICIT was down 55%, the biggest drop in history. THANK YOU MR. TARIFF!"
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In the news
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USSC CEO Dr Michael Green was quoted in the article on this development, saying the alliance had never been stronger, despite Trump’s interventions, as “Support for AUKUS is deep and broad and bipartisan in the US Congress, and support for AUKUS with one or two mid-level exceptions is very strong across the US administration."
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Australian Financial Review | PM’s $23b Made in Australia misses the mark on supply chain
The Australian Financial Review reports that the Albanese government’s A$23 billion Future Made in Australia program has allocated almost no funding to address risks to the economy from international shocks.
USSC Non-Resident Senior Fellow Dr John Kunkel spoke with the AFR on this development, saying the fuel shock caused by the war in the Middle East had exposed the Future Made in Australia agenda as not being prepared for the current volatile geopolitical and economic environment.
Sydney Morning Herald | We might be staring at Trump’s biggest TACO moment, but that’s not what really matters
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USSC Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe was quoted in the article on the possibility of a ceasefire, saying if Iran agrees to a ceasefire and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, it would be a massive victory for Trump, but that Iranians could be "too hardline to accept Trump’s terms."
By the numbers
Can Australia's grid keep pace with the data centre boom?
On 23 March 2026, the Australian Government released its Expectations of data centres and AI infrastructure developers, signalling a shift from recognising data centres as critical infrastructure to actively shaping how they are built and integrated into Australia’s national interest. Australia ranked second globally as the most attractive destination for data centre investment in 2024 and currently hosts over 250 facilities. The scale and pace of investment reflect Australia’s strong fundamentals, including access to renewable energy, political stability, robust privacy protections and proximity to Indo-Pacific markets.
Data centres are large, energy-intensive facilities that need to operate continuously to support the digital economy. They currently account for 2% of Australia’s grid-supplied electricity and are projected to rise to 6% by 2030. This demand is highly concentrated in Sydney and Melbourne, reflecting operator preferences for proximity to customers, skilled workforces and fibre-optic connectivity (see Figure 1). This concentration, however, can create localised grid pressure. When multiple large facilities seek connections to the same substations or transmission corridors within short timeframes, local network capacity can be strained. This can delay new connections, cap power draw, or require costly infrastructure upgrades before operations can commence.
Johanna Lim
Research Associate, Strategic Technologies
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University of Sydney NSW 2006