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13 December 2023

Ukraine aid languishes in Congress

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Washington on Monday in what could prove a last-ditch effort to secure more US military aid for his embattled country. Amid domestic divisions ahead of the 2024 election and ongoing conflict in Gaza, US aid for Ukraine has languished in Congress with Republicans seeking concessions on spending and border enforcement in exchange for support.

Zelenskyy met with President Joe Biden, lawmakers, military officials and new Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson, who has previously expressed scepticism over continued support for Ukraine. Following the meetings, Biden reiterated US support for Ukraine, while Johnson insisted the White House develop a viable strategy to end the war.

Amid more bipartisan unity on foreign policy topics such as China and Israel, Ukraine has emerged as a divisive issue, including in the race for the 2024 Republican nomination. Republican candidates have sparred over Ukraine’s future, with former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley making the case for further assistance against objections from other leading candidates.

The legislative impasse in Congress will not help public perceptions over its functioning. United States Studies Centre (USSC) polling finds that 82 per cent of Americans are concerned about the lack of compromise between the major parties and 64 per cent are concerned about Congress’ ability to do its job.

Zelenskyy will be hoping to leave Washington with greater assurances of support, but domestic politics is likely to ultimately trump foreign policy priorities.

 

NEWS WRAP

US votes against Israel ceasefire but toughens language on civilian deaths

  • Under pressure | International pressure on Israel to minimise civilian casualties in Gaza is mounting, with the passage of a UN resolution calling for a humanitarian ceasefire. While the United States voted against the resolution, Biden has increasingly emphasised the need for restraint in public and private comments. READ MORE HERE
     

  • Haley on a high | Former Republican South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley continues to rise in the polls, and is on the cusp of overtaking Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to be in second place nationally to former president Trump. On Tuesday, she also picked up a valuable endorsement from New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu. READ MORE HERE
     

  • Calling the Supreme Court | Special Counsel Jack Smith has asked for the Supreme Court to bypass lower courts and consider whether Trump can be criminally prosecuted. The move is a blow to Trump's efforts to delay his Washington trial on charges relating to the 2020 election. READ MORE HERE
     

  • 'Death certificate' goes unsigned | Australian Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen delivered a statement at the COP28 summit on behalf of a group of countries including the United States, in which he said they would not be "a co-signatory to those death certificates" in reference to a draft statement which did not call for a phase-out of fossil fuels. READ MORE HERE
     

  • Trump card | The Trump campaign has released "Mugshot Edition" trading cards which include real pieces of the suit he wore in his Fulton County mugshot. Candidates often turn to unusual means of raising campaign funding, including through digital NFTs. READ MORE HERE​​

 

"Israel's security can rest on the United States [...] but they're starting to lose that support by indiscriminate bombing that takes place."

President Biden at a private election fundraiser | 12 December 2023

 

DID YOU USSC?

  • REPORT | AUKUS inflection point: Building the ecosystem for workforce development
    A new report by Director of Foreign Policy and Defence Professor Peter Dean and Research Associate Alice Nason, with Research Associates Sophie Mayo and Samuel Garrett, evaluates what it will take for the Australian Government to deliver the specialised workforce required for the AUKUS agreement. READ MORE HERE
     
  • PODCAST | Technology and Security (TS) podcast | Professor Johanna Weaver on AI, international humanitarian law and cyber security
    In this episode, Dr Miah Hammond-Errey is joined by Professor Johanna Weaver to discuss the recent 2023–2030 Australian Cyber Security Strategy, including its funding, implementation and challenges, the relationship between hacktivism and international humanitarian law and the different ways of thinking about AI risk and harms. LISTEN HERE
     
  • EVENT RECORDING | Taiwan's upcoming election: The implications for Australia
    The USSC hosted a live panel discussion on the regional implications of Taiwan's upcoming election, featuring Lowy Institute Senior Fellow for East Asia Richard McGregor, USSC Non-Resident Senior Fellow Dr Lavina Lee and USSC CEO Dr Michael Green in conversation with USSC Research Director Jared Mondschein, with opening remarks from Taiwanese Representative to Australia Douglas Hsu. WATCH THE RECORDING HERE
 

EVENT

Economic security in a turbulent world

The world economy is undergoing a patchwork reversal of global integration as major powers seek to “de-risk” key economic relationships and use new policy tools to boost domestic investment in strategic industries.

The United States Studies Centre invites you to join us as we convene a major international conference — “Economic Security in a Turbulent World” — to discuss these issues, bringing together policymakers, business executives and leading experts from the United States, Europe, and Asia, as well as from Australia.

Save the date for the opportunity to learn from leading experts in geopolitics and economic policy and engage in robust and interactive discussion on the key issues facing Australia, the United States and the Alliance.

TYPE
Conference

WHERE
Sydney CBD

WHEN
19–20 June 2023. 8.30am–5.00pm

MORE DETAILS HERE
 

BY THE NUMBERS

Will concerned Americans buy Biden's democracy messaging?

By Ava Kalinauskas, Research Associate

USSC polling suggests that the American public are not growing more worried that their centuries-long democracy is under threat.  

A sizeable majority of Americans (82 per cent) continue to say that they are a little or very concerned about the way their democracy is working. However, their views of US politics remain largely unchanged since 2022 and, if anything, Americans are less concerned about US democracy than they were a year ago. 

Polled in September 2022, just before the midterm elections, almost two-thirds (64 per cent) of Americans reported being very concerned about the way democracy is working in the United States. Asked the same question twelve months later, the number has dropped by 10 percentage points, to just over half of Americans (54 per cent). Strikingly, the greatest shift occurred among Biden voters, who now hold a brighter perspective compared to in 2022: 14 percentage points less now say they are very concerned about how US democracy is working.  

Biden’s campaign has seized on Trump’s recent comments to bolster the claim that the top Republican contender poses an existential threat to the country's system of government. 

During a town hall event last week, Fox News’ Sean Hannity gave Donald Trump the opportunity to confirm that the former president does not intend to abuse his powers if re-elected to the White House next year. But Trump refused to deny the possibility — at least for “day one” of his term, vowing to use his presidential powers to close the southern border with Mexico and expand oil drilling.  

Trump’s response triggered a new wave of media commentary warning that a second Trump presidency could set the United States on the path to autocracy. These claims that US allies should prepare for the worst have only grown as Trump sketches out his second term agenda, comparing his rivals to “vermin” and promising to seek retribution by purging the federal bureaucracy of disloyal civil servants and using the Department of Justice to prosecute his opponents. 

As Biden’s campaign continues to sound the alarm on Trump, the president is communicating his message to an American public that may be concerned, but is increasingly optimistic, about the state of US democracy.  

READ MORE ABOUT THE FUTURE OF US DEMOCRACY HERE
 

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University of Sydney NSW 2006

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The United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney is a university-based research centre, dedicated to the rigorous analysis of American foreign policy, economic security, emerging technology, politics, society and culture. The Centre is a national resource, that builds awareness of the dynamics shaping America , their implications for Australia – and critically – solutions for the Alliance.


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