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Super majority, super power? Takaichi’s big win and Japan’s
bigger strategic bets
11 February 2026
Sanae Takaichi made history this weekend when she not only became the first woman elected as prime minister in the history of Japan but she also secured the largest majority for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) since it was formed. President Trump congratulated Takaichi on social media saying, “It was my Honor to Endorse you and your Coalition.”
USSC polling in 2025 showed Japanese views of President Trump were the lowest since they were first included in the polls in 2022, with only 5% of respondents saying Trump’s second term was either good or very good, compared to 59% who said it was either bad or very bad. Yet, despite this, Takaichi has focused on strengthening ties with the United States, and President Trump in particular, since she took the reins of the LDP in October.
Unlike Australia, where aligning with President Trump hurt the Liberal Party in the 2025 Federal election, Takaichi squared the circle with the Japanese public through an emphasis on strength. In November, she said that a use of force against Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation,” the threshold needed to permit deploying Japan’s self-defence force.
With her super majority in the lower house and a resounding mandate to strengthen defence to meet an escalating threat from China, Takaichi may be in a position to drive a change to Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution. The “Renunciation of War” clause says that “land, sea and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained.” Takaichi has been a proponent of formal recognition of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces and, shortly after her election, she said, “I would be grateful if the Constitutional review Committee thoroughly discusses specific proposals.”
USSC CEO Dr Michael Green has known Takaichi since the 1980s. Speaking to the Sydney Morning Herald, he compared her foreign policy approach with the line mooted by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in Davos two weeks ago, “Carney talks about decoupling and hedging against the US; Takaichi talks about making Japan indispensable to the US.”
Before Carney’s speech, he entered into a new strategic partnership with China to derisk from the United States; whereas Takaichi is doubling down on the United States to strengthen Japan’s position against China.
These divergent approaches highlight the conundrum for Australia. For decades now, they have attempted to maintain a diplomatic equilibrium with their largest trading partner (China) and closest ally and largest investment partner (the United States). However, as geopolitical tensions escalate, they will need to adapt their middle power approach. Australia’s ties with Japan have increased significantly. Even though the United States has become more capricious as an ally partner, it may be that in following Carney’s exhortation for middle powers to “act together,” Australia could find itself working even more closely with the United States.
Mari Koeck
Director of Engagement and Impact
Lead photo: Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), places a red paper rose on the name of an elected candidate at the LDP headquarters on general election day on 8 February 2026 in Tokyo, Japan (photo by Kim Kyung-Hoon - Pool/Getty Images)
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