SEPTEMBER 2024

Election on the horizon

While the US presidential election started out fairly predictably, the last few months have been anything but. From a change at the top of the ticket to multiple assassination attempts, the race has been defined by volatility. The United States Studies Centre (USSC) at the University of Sydney has been analysing these developments in our publications, podcasts, events and interviews. In this election cycle, topics like foreign policy and running mates may play an outsized role in determining the outcome as the election looks like it will be close and contested.

To examine what the outcome of the election will mean for the Indo-Pacific region, the USSC is hosting its second annual Sydney International Strategy Forum on 20 November, just two weeks after the election. The event will include key players in former administrations (and likely the next), including former congresswoman Stephanie Murphy and former US National Security Council Director for Asia Matthew Turpin, in addition to senior Japanese elected officials Akihisa Nagashima, Rui Matsukawa and Wada Yoshiaki; Australian Department of Defence Deputy Secretary Strategy, Policy and Industry Hugh Jeffery and former Australian Ambassador to the United States Dennis Richardson AC. More VIP speakers will be announced soon. You can book your tickets here.

Election watch 2024

Countdown to the US presidential election

A second assassination attempt and the first debate between former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris shaped the news around the US election for the month.

Debate reax

• OP-ED | Harris should get the polling bump from this debate by Dr Michael Green
• INTERVIEW | US debate special: Let them eat canines with Associate Prof. David Smith
• INTERVIEW | Trump, Harris spar over China trade war, chips in US presidential debate with Alice Nason
• INTERVIEW | Slim margins: Trump's rhetoric may not be enough to win over undecided voters with Jared Mondschein
• INTERVIEW | Trump's YouTube podcast election campaign explained with Dr Rodney Taveira
• INTERVIEW | Harris' stand on abortion in the debate with Ava Kalinauskas
• INTERVIEW | Trump ‘fell’ for baited traps in presidential debate with Dr Michael Green

Second assassination attempt

• INTERVIEW | Will Donald Trump get a post-assassination attempt bump in the polls? with Associate Prof. David Smith
• INTERVIEW | Trump assassination attempt yet to change the polls with Jared Mondschein
• OP-ED | The ghosts of 1968 are haunting America, and it will get more spooky by Bruce Wolpe
• INTERVIEW | Assassination fallout for Trump campaign with Jared Mondschein

Looking for a US election expert? Contact us on ussc.media@sydney.edu.au.

NEWS

AUKUS innovation workshop in London

USSC hosted a Track 1.5 dialogue at Australia House, London titled: AUKUS innovation: Trilateral university partnerships for a new strategic age. This workshop examined how Australian, UK and US research universities can enhance their collaboration to foster defence innovation in line with the the objectives of AUKUS Pillar II advanced technologies. It canvassed opportunities and impediments to partnership and participation in AUKUS for UK research institutions. It was attended by 30 senior university representatives and officials from all three AUKUS countries.

New USSC polling report released

AI and data in a US election year

USSC Non-Resident Fellow Helen Zhang visited Sydney for a week of AI-centred meetings and events. Helen is a former ‘Googler’ and ex-diplomat with the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. On 10 September, she joined Research Associate Tom Barrett for a public event that focused on the likely technology policy of an incoming Trump or Harris administration and what this could mean for other regional AI players.

Former White House official joins NextGen workshop

At the most recent NextGen workshop, Erik Jacobs, a former policy advisor in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, met with the network of up-and-coming researchers. Drawing from his experience in the US Department of Energy they held a panel discussion on challenges in energy and the alliance, followed by a table-top exercise problem-solving an energy security scenario.

Annual student prize night brings the brat energy

Current and past American Studies students turned out for the annual USSC prize night. Academic Director Dr Rodney Taveira handed out the awards for students and drag performer Midas brought the brat energy for a memorable evening. The event is one of the yearly highlights for students of American Studies. Learn more about enrolling in USSC’s American Studies program.

Alliance Dinner in Canberra

On 19 September, USSC hosted its annual Alliance Dinner in Canberra with senior government and corporate stakeholders. The dinner featured a panel discussion with former Australian ambassador to the United States Michael Thawley AO, former Secretary of DFAT Katrina Cooper and USSC Director of Research Jared Mondschein in conversation with USSC CEO Dr Michael Green. The panel discussed the strategic trajectory of the US-Australia alliance in light of the upcoming US election and findings in USSC’s Allies and partners poll 2024.

USSC welcomes NATO official

USSC welcomed NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Innovation, Hybrid and Cyber James Appathurai for a public event: Cyber threats, disinformation and sabotage: Lessons learnt from Russia's war in Ukraine. He shared an overview of the topic, lessons learned from Ukraine and key takeaways from NATO’s Washington Summit. He then joined USSC CEO Dr Michael Green for a more detailed discussion about the role of cyber threats in the evolving geopolitical environment and shared security threats that impact NATO and its allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific.

Workshop looks at nuclear deterrence and the alliance

USSC joined forces with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Project on Nuclear Issues to host a workshop on domestic perspectives on nuclear deterrence and nonproliferation. The workshop featured panel discussions with representatives of USSC, CSIS, Australian National University, University of Melbourne, Lowy Institute, Australian Strategic Policy Institute and the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network. Across the course of a day they covered topics from perceptions around nuclear weapons, extended deterrence and strategic stability in the Indo-Pacific.

Reports in review

In addition to the Allies and partners poll 2024, USSC released four additional reports this month and other noteworthy publications in the areas of foreign policy, economic security and defence.

• Seizing the moment: Outcomes of the inaugural Australia-Japan-South Korea trilateral dialogue by Dr Christopher Watterson
• Economic security in a turbulent world: Conference summary by Dr John Kunkel and Georgia Edmonstone
• Expanding the National Security Innovation Base: How Australia and the United States can collaborate to harness their commercial technology ecosystems by Sophie Mayo
• Aiming higher: Accelerating US-Australia cooperation on precision-guided weapons by Stacie Pettyjohn
• Engaging with reality in the Indian Ocean by Dr Arzan Tarapore
• Economic security policies compared: The United States, its allies and partners by Georgia Edmonstone

USSC teams up with Film Versus Film podcast

In the lead up to the election, USSC is joining forces with the Film Versus Film podcast. Starting this week, they are releasing a six-part series discussing movies that engage with US electoral politics which will culminate in a free cinema screening of A24’s Civil War on the night before the US presidential election. Learn more here.

USSC perspectives

The US presidential debate wasn't the only debate in the mix this month. USSC experts weighed in on a range of topics including Taiwan and AUKUS.

• Why Australia’s Taiwan debate asks all the wrong questions by Prof. Peter Dean. First published in The Australian.
• Trump and Harris trade insults and competing visions: Experts give their verdicts on the US presidential debate by Jared Mondschein. First published in The Conversation.
• Harris is ahead in the polls, but she can’t afford to get comfortable yet by Ava Kalinauskas. First published in The Age.
• Aligning commercial technology with AUKUS Pillar II by Sophie Mayo. First published in Open Forum.
• Kamala sliced Trump like sashimi, when he wasn’t doing it himself by Bruce Wolpe. First published in the Sydney Morning Herald.

EVENT

CONFERENCE

Panels announced for Sydney International Strategy Forum 2024

Two weeks after the US presidential election, USSC will host the second Sydney International Strategy Forum (SISF): The future of American leadership and a contested Asia. A mix of DC insiders and leaders from across the Indo-Pacific will join the USSC to share their analysis of the US election and what to expect in Asia under the next administration.

Program preview:

• Panel 1: What do we need to know about the new US administration?
• Panel 2: What do we need to know about the new US Congress?
• Panel 3: In the year of elections, is democracy backsliding?
• Panel 4: How should we approach security challenges in 2025?
• Panel 5: What next on economic statecraft, technology and climate?
• Panel 6: How should allies approach the new administration?

Stay tuned for additional speaker and program announcements.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Videos and podcasts

The latest recordings from our webinars are available on our YouTube channel and USSC Live podcast. Find all of the Centre’s podcast recordings here. You can now listen to USSC Briefing Room on YouTube.

• EVENT | Allies and partners poll 2024 report launch with Dr Michael Green, Prof. Peter Dean, Barbara Comstock, Bruce Wolpe, Ben Reilly, Jared Mondschein, Hayley Channer, Ava Kalinauskas, Samuel Garrett and Mari Koeck
• PODCAST | USSC Briefing Room | State of the race: US presidential election check-in with Bruce Wolpe, Lester Munson and Mari Koeck
• EVENT | Cyber threats, disinformation and sabotage: Lessons learnt from Russia's war in Ukraine with James Appathurai and Dr Michael Green
• PODCAST | The Asia Chessboard | Kiwi crossroads: Navigating New Zealand’s strategic landscape with David Capie, Dr Michael Green and Jude Blanchette
• PODCAST | USSC Briefing Room | Tech and the alliance with Jennifer Jackett and Mari Koeck
• PODCAST | The Asia Chessboard | Malaysia’s Path in a Contested Asia with Elina Noor, Dr Michael Green and Jude Blanchette

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Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006

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