10 June 2026

The war with Iran crossed the 100-day threshold over the weekend, a far cry from the 2 ½ hour US operation to remove Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January. A deal to end the war remains elusive, and the current ceasefire is tenuous as Iran downed a US helicopter and the United States responded with “proportional and limited” retaliatory strikes. This week President Trump pushed back on critics who said he broke his “no new wars” campaign promise, saying he “didn’t guarantee” there would be no wars. Of the 103 days of war, the active fighting phase lasted for 39 days before the current ceasefire took effect. This is comparable to the major combat phase of the 2003 Iraq war, which lasted for 42 days from the start of fighting on 20 March 2003 to the declaration of the end of combat operations on 1 May. Even if a permanent ceasefire deal is signed tomorrow, long-term impacts will remain in key areas.

Munitions stockpiles
An estimated 1,000+ Tomahawk missiles have been fired by the United States as part of Operation Epic Fury so far and research from the Center of Strategic and International Studies estimates the United States will return to pre-war inventory levels in 2030-31. The allocation of these resources is also increasing concerns about a prioritisation of the Middle East over the Western Hemisphere, something USSC Research Fellow Tom Corben noted runs counter to the most recent US National Defense Strategy.

Energy prices
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused outsized impacts globally. The global price of oil is up 30% since the start of the conflict. Similar to when the supply chain shocks of COVID-19 led many countries to shore up their pipelines for critical goods, 80% of the oil that usually travels through the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asia, leading many countries to find alternative supplies. However, creating new pipelines and export routes will take years and will come at significant expense. Negotiations around the future of Iran’s nuclear program continue; however, their now demonstrated asymmetric influence in the Strait of Hormuz may become a new tool in their arsenal to cause disruption and exert maximum influence, even without needing to resort to nuclear weapons development.

The US midterm elections are now five months away. Even if the war with Iran ends tomorrow, costs for fuel and fertiliser are expected to remain high for months and continue to have flow-on impacts on food and other commodities. When voters go to the polls, it will not just be a referendum on President Trump, but also an assessment of whether the cost of the war was worth it.

Lead image: Oil prices around the globe continue to rise as talks drag on between the United States and Iran over the closing of the Straight of Hormuz, causing a surge in the price of oil and a strain
on millions of people's finances (photo by Spencer Platt via Getty).

"I didn't guarantee 'no war'."

President Trump in an interview with NBC | 7 June 2026

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By the Numbers

AUKUS revised timeline comparison

USSC calculations based on multiple sources: Congressional Research Service, Australian Defence Minister press release 19 May 2026, Australian Department of Defence

On 30 May 2026, at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence Richard Marles announced that Australia will acquire three in-service Block IV-standard Virginia-Class submarines for the first three of its nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs) fleet under AUKUS Pillar I. The decision represents a departure from the 2023 “Optimal Pathway”, under which Australia was expected to receive two in-service Block IVs in 2032 and 2035, and reportedly at least one newly built Block V or Block VII-standard Virginia-class submarine in 2038.

Marles described the move as an important measure to “streamline” Australia’s nuclear-powered submarine acquisition, reducing the complexity of sustainment and workforce training requirements over the period from the 2030s to early 2040s when Australia will operate a mixed submarine fleet (see figure 1). The new plan reduces the number of submarine types operated from four to three, namely:  

• six conventionally-powered Collins-class submarines (set to retire by the 2040s); 
• at least three in-service Block IV Virginia-class SSNs (due to be delivered in 2032, 2035 and 2038); and
• five SSN-AUKUS (the first to be delivered from the early 2040s).

The new plan retains the 2023 Optimal Pathway option to buy two additional and new Virginia-Class submarines, “if required”, in 2041 and 2044.

The government’s decision may ease pressure on the US submarine industrial base, which has a target production rate of 2.33 boats per year – the rate the US Navy estimates is required to satisfy both US force readiness requirements and AUKUS targets (see figure 2). Currently, US Navy production of Virginia-class submarines remains closer to 1.2–1.3 boats annually.

These decisions reflect the capability requirements needed to navigate the Indo-Pacific’s changing undersea military balance in the coming decades. The United States still has the largest number of nuclear-powered submarines in the world, at 71, compared to China with 32. However, between 2021 and 2025, China’s People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) surpassed the United States for the first time in both nuclear-powered submarine launches – 10 PLAN boats compared with seven for the United States Navy – and total tonnage added, with approximately 79,000 tonnes entering PLAN service against 55,500 tonnes for the US fleet.

This is an excerpt of: By the Numbers | AUKUS revised timeline.

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