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24 November
Why Trump is thankful this Thanksgiving
Thanksgiving is always a time for reflection, but perhaps especially this year at what seems like an inflection point in American politics.
Polling released as part of Trump’s exploration of a 2024 presidential run show him well ahead in head-to-head matchups with President Biden in Michigan (by 12 points), Wisconsin (10 points), Arizona (eight points) and Pennsylvania (six points) - all states flipped by Biden in 2020 and offering more than enough to hand a 2024 win to Trump. At the same time, other Republicans fear a 2024 Trump candidacy would be counter-productive, inviting huge waves of counter-mobilisation from Democrats that were decisive in the 2018 and 2020 elections.
President Biden has a lot to be thankful for too. Fresh off a relatively clean bill of health, the oldest president in US history received a remarkable 79th birthday present – the passage of his long-awaited Build Back Better bill in the House of Representatives. While amounting to half of the administration’s initial US$3.5 trillion spending proposal, and expected to shrink further in negotiation with Democratic Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, even a stripped down version of the bill becoming a law will be a major victory in being perhaps the most substantial expansion of the social safety net in the United States since the 1960s.
Thanksgiving is typically the busiest travel weekend of the year in the United States; this weekend is forecast to see a return to pre-pandemic levels. While for many this will be a celebration and reclamation of in-person contact, concerns still loom. In spite of vaccinations, more Americans and Australians were infected and died from COVID in 2021 than in 2020. The current number of daily US fatalities is nearly the same as they were this time in 2020, with the number of cases up 30 per cent over the last two weeks. However, unlike last year, in 2021 medical professionals in both nations are expressing thanks that the majority of citizens are vaccinated.
Happy Thanksgiving to you and your families and friends, from all of us at the United States Studies Centre.
Sincerely,
Professor Simon Jackman
CEO, United States Studies Centre
NEWS WRAP
Historic first for Harris in Oval Office
- Madam President | With President Joe Biden indisposed on Friday morning on matters related to his health, Vice President Kamala Harris became the first woman to ever hold presidential powers in the United States. Officially the oldest US president at 79 years old, President Biden insists he is fit to seek another four-year term in 2024. READ MORE HERE
- Filibustering Build Back Better? | Not even House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s record breaking 8-hour 32-minute filibuster could prevent the US$1.75 trillion Build Back Better social spending plan from passing through the House of Representatives (220-213) on Friday. Amid an evenly split Senate, the fate of paid family leave and Medicare expansion are in doubt due to scrutiny of Senators Manchin and Sinema. READ MORE HERE
- Stand your ground | A jury in Kenosha, Wisconsin found 18-year-old Kyle Rittenhouse not guilty on all charges related to the fatal shooting of two men during a Black Lives Matter protest in August last year. The verdict raises debate about the right to self-defence and US gun laws, with some fearing the result may lead to more vigilantism. The verdict also comes days before the closing arguments of the Ahmaud Arbery trial. READ MORE HERE
A big fight for the alt right | A group of white nationalists responsible for the August 2017 Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville were found liable of conspiracy under the KKK Act. Meanwhile, investigations into violent extremism continues for a House Select Committee which subpoenaed shock-jock Alex Jones and Roger Stone, among others, in the latest stage of its investigation into the Jan 6 attacks on the US Capitol. READ MORE HERE
Carnage and chaos | An investigation continues into the motives of Darrell E. Brooks Jr, who ploughed through a Wisconsin Christmas holiday parade killing six and wounding more than forty people. Brooks has multiple existing criminal charges and was released on bail only five days before the event. He now faces five counts of intentional homicide, with prosecutors' intent on filing the sixth charge for the latest victim, a six-year-old child. READ MORE HERE
Last night, our wonderful Waukesha parade became the scene of a horrific tragedy. Last night, that parade became a nightmare. Last night, many were severely injured. Last night, lives were lost during the middle of what should have been a celebration.
Waukesha Mayor Shawn Reilly | 23 November 2021
Democrats in Washington, from President Biden down, feel pretty good going into Thanksgiving. The huge bipartisan infrastructure bill is law; America is going to get rebuilt. The House has passed the most significant investment in children, education and health care since FDR, and the biggest investment ever to fight carbon pollution and climate change by migrating American industry to renewable fuels. It’s a big deal.
Bur Democrats know that their future is imperiled. Inflation is hemorrhaging the president’s popularity. The country is still suffering too much from the delta variant of COVID-19. Immigration and crime are hot-button issues. With the culture wars and the “stolen” election, the Trump base is amped up again.
To help engineer their return to control of Congress in the midterm elections next year, Republican legislatures are using reapportionment to erase Democratic seats in the House. Trump is endorsing acolytes from coast to coast to seize House and Senate seats. He is determined to purge Republicans who differed with him on the outcome of the election, impeachment and the insurrection.
At this truly pivotal moment — nearly one year into the Biden presidency, with the fate of his landmark legislative agenda and very legacy in the balance — what should Democrats do to prepare to face an election that could remove them from power in Congress?
The first step is understanding that in 2022, history is on the Republicans’ side.
As a result, the party in power needs to plan and act as if the worst will occur. That means, hunker down and prepare for loss of the Senate as well as the House. Through next year, assume a deeply unpopular president and a vice president seen as struggling with her role. Assume the trends that hurt Democrats so much in Virginia and New Jersey persist: diminished enthusiasm among Democratic voters, poor Black turnout, Hispanic support drifting away, suburbs trending out of reach, red hot Republican armies itching to vote.
This is an excerpt of an article first published by New York Daily News
BY THE NUMBERS
More COVID deaths in 2021 to date than 2020
Despite the widespread availability of effective vaccines in the United States since the beginning of the year, COVID-19 killed more Americans in 2021 than in the first year of the pandemic. The deadliest month of the pandemic to date was January 2021, when just under 100,000 Americans lost their lives to COVID.
Over the US summer period, monthly death rates dropped to one-tenth in June and July but have since picked up as health officials urge the unvaccinated to get the jab and boosters in the hopes of avoiding lockdowns and the record high case numbers being seen in Europe.
Catch more By the numbers analysis here!
THE ALLIANCE AT 70 | Cultural connections and creativity
The following is an excerpt from the soon-to-be-released The Alliance at 70 from Paul Hogan AM, writer, producer and star of Crocodile Dundee (1986), Crocodile Dundee II (1988), Crocodile Dundee in Los Angeles (2001) and Charlie & Boots (2009)
"Do you think you could sell Australia to the Yanks?"
"Do you think you could sell Australia to the Yanks?" When I was in the United Kingdom and having a great time doing some Foster’s ads, John Brown, the newly appointed Australian Minister for Tourism sought me out. He was part of the new Labor government under Bob Hawke elected in 1983 and they were out to shake things up, including building a tourism sector.
Brown said ‘You’re going well over here, Hoges, selling beer to the Poms. Do you think you could sell Australia to the Yanks?’
‘I’ll certainly have a crack,’ I replied. So I went to the States to check out the target. I like the Yanks and while it’s a very similar culture to ours, I was quickly reminded there were a few accent and language differences, particularly in the early 1980s.
I found out Americans are really into their politics and social issues. They’re very passionate, whereas we Australians are the exact opposite, apathetic. We’re among the small number of countries in the world where they’ve got to force us to vote, or we wouldn’t bother. So, there’s a clash there. The Yanks are sort of famous for their passion and we’re sort of famous for our apathy.
And we found that almost every country in the world was advertising its wares in the States. So we decided, instead, to advertise our people. We’d say, ‘The best thing about Australia is Australians. We’re friendly, perfect hosts. You’ll have a good time, and we’ll be glad to see you.’
People sometimes ask me what it takes to be an Aussie, and I say it’s simple, ‘Just wanting to be one.’ So it wasn’t a big stretch for me, John and the boys from ad agency Mojo to come up with a tourism campaign that was fun but also authentic.
Our ‘America, You Need A Holiday’ ads aired in the States from January 1984. The ads said, in effect: ‘Come over to our place.’ And Americans did. Australia went from the 28th-most desired destination to number one in a few months. Tourism would eventually become our biggest industry, employing now, I’m told, 3.5 million people.
The ads went on to become the most successful tourism campaign ever in America. Actually, the ‘Shrimp on the Barbie’ ad is in the Smithsonian!
VIDEO
US-China relations under a Biden administration
This time last year, the United States Studies Centre hosted a webinar in conversation with Axios China Reporter, Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian and USSC Senior Non-Resident Fellow and former Senior Advisor to the Australian Foreign Minister, Dr John Lee to discuss how the Biden administration would deal with US-China relations. Nearly one year on, take a look back at how this has all played out.
Catch more analysis on the United States on the USSC YouTube channel.
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United States Studies Centre
Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006
