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9 November 2022
Midterms 2022: By the numbers
Unlike previous midterm elections, results this year are expected to trickle in due to high levels of mail-in ballots due to anticipated legal challenges to results. With 36 governors, 36 senators and 435 representatives up for election, United States Studies Centre (USSC) experts are weighing in on some of the key indicators to watch in the 2022 midterms.
Associate Professor David Smith told Triple J’s Hack:
"Unfortunately for Democrats, they currently control both houses of Congress. But Biden’s approval rating is around 40 per cent and they only control it by a really, really narrow margin – so 10 seats out of 435 in the House of Representatives and a margin of zero in the Senate – they have to rely on Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote.”
Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe told ABC Radio:
“Eighty per cent or more of the country feels that the United States is out of control. Seventy per cent or more feel the country is on the wrong track. That is a prescription for change – people dissatisfied with the status quo.”
Research Associate Victoria Cooper wrote in her midterms FAQs:
"Since the Second World War, the president’s party has lost an average of 26 seats each midterm election cycle and even greater numbers where the president’s approval rating is below 50 per cent or the economy is performing poorly. In the case of President Biden, his approval rating is around 43 per cent while inflation has hovered above 8.5 per cent in a 40-year record for most of 2022."
As the results come in today and over the next few days, the focus is not just on what this means for the 2022 map, but what to expect in 2024.
NEWS WRAP
Trumping the midterms
Trump teases announcement for Tuesday | At a rally in Ohio, former President Trump said he will have a “very big announcement on Tuesday, November 15.” After looking like he might announce this week, he deferred under pressure from Republicans who wanted it not to be a distraction with today’s midterm elections. READ MORE HERE
Midterm results likely delayed | With a surge in mail-in ballots (which trend Democratic), and some states not permitting processing or counting ahead of election day, races in some key states may not be known for days. In Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin and Michigan there will likely be a red-to-blue shift as mail-in ballots are counted last. But Arizona may shift from blue to red because they can begin processing early ballots ahead of election day. READ MORE HERE
Biden to speak at COP27 | With this year’s UN climate conference in Egypt occurring through the US midterm elections, President Biden will travel to the conference later this week. While Biden will speak on 11 November, many countries are not sending their leader this year, including Australia, China, Russia and India. READ MORE HERE
Trump warns DeSantis | As former President Donald Trump gets closer to announcing his candidacy for the 2024 election, tensions are rising with the other GOP frontrunner, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. On Monday, he told reporters, "I think if he runs he could hurt himself very badly." READ MORE HERE
Musk sacks half of Twitter’s workforce | Mass layoffs began last week at Twitter, with employees notified over email after Elon Musk took the helm of the company. With major staff reductions and facing fierce criticism over suggested reforms, the future of Twitter is unclear under its new leadership. READ MORE HERE
HYBRID EVENT
A US-Australian agenda for climate change after the midterms
The midterm elections could see President Biden’s Democratic party lose one, if not both Houses of Congress, and experts expect minimal progress at this month’s international climate negotiations (COP27) in Egypt.
What sort of collaboration on climate change can we expect from the United States and Australia for the next two years and beyond? Can the alliance pivot to work on climate policy that touches on industrial policy and economic development? Should Australia be as concerned about the recent US climate legislation as the Europeans are?
To discuss these issues please join USSC for an event featuring Meg McDonald, a former senior diplomat now a board member of the NSW Net Zero Emissions and Clean Economy Board, the Foreign Investment Review Board and Environment Commissioner, Greater Cities Commission and Lachlan Carey, a former Australian Treasury official and senior associate at the Colorado-based RMI, where he leads work on US regional economic development through clean energy investment for a conversation with USSC CEO Dr Michael Green.
WHEN
SYDNEY | Thursday, 17 November, 6.00 pm - 7.30 pm AEDT
LOCATION
Auditorium, The Michael Spence Building (F23), Corner of Eastern Avenue and City Road, The University of Sydney, Camperdown NSW 2006
COST
Free, but registration is essential
ANALYSIS
Explainer: The foreign policy implications of the 2022 US midterms
Tom Corben, Research Fellow, Foreign Policy and Defence, United States Studies Centre
Alice Nason, Program Associate, Foreign Policy and Defence, United States Studies Centre
Dr Peter K. Lee, Research Fellow, Foreign Policy and Defence Program, United States Studies Centre
The US Congress wields considerable influence over US engagement with the world. Though US foreign policy is primarily directed from the White House, it is Congress that has oversight and final approval of a range of key policies, including international treaties, departmental budgets for defence and diplomacy, and trade agreements. While politics may nominally stop at the water's edge, intensifying polarisation between the Republican and Democratic Parties will be an operational reality for the 118th Congress.
A hostile Congress would have significant implications for the speed and scale at which the Biden administration pursues key foreign policy priorities, including military support for Ukraine, competition with China, trade and technology statecraft, and climate change. To be sure, bipartisanship is not doomed on every issue. But with the Republican Party expected to take control of the House of Representatives and the likely makeup of the Senate still uncertain, the Biden administration may face an uphill battle in pursuing components of its foreign and security policy objectives for the rest of its first term. This explainer discusses how the upcoming 2022 midterm elections are likely to lead to more conditional congressional support for Biden administration requests for Ukraine funding, more escalatory legislative proposals regarding Taiwan, pushback on the Biden administration's trade cooperation efforts, and increased framing of climate change through the lens of strategic competition.
This is an excerpt from Explainer: The foreign policy implications of the 2022 US midterms, first published on 26 October, 2022.
If what I think will happen in today’s [midterm] elections happens and the House [of Representatives] is gone, you’re not going to see that money.
US climate envoy, John Kerry, at COP27 about the potential for the US to deliver billions in its share of international climate finance | 8 November, 2022
BY THE NUMBERS
Australians on Trump vs Biden in 2024
In USSC’s US midterms 2022 polling, we asked Australian voters whether a 2024 re-election for either Donald Trump or Joe Biden would be a good or bad thing for Australia. Australians were pessimistic about a second Trump term with 50 per cent saying it would either be bad or very bad, compared to 19 per cent for Biden. However, Australians were largely agnostic towards Biden with the largest number saying it was ‘neither good nor bad.’
Today’s midterm elections are the best glimpse into what to expect in 2024. With Donald Trump expected to announce his candidacy next week and Biden signalling a 2024 run, the odds are increasing that 2024 may be a 2020 rematch.
For more polling, read US midterms 2022: The stakes for Australia and the alliance by Director of Research Jared Mondschein and Research Associate Victoria Cooper
VIDEO
Georgia: Ground zero of the US midterm elections
USSC hosted a webinar to look at the role of Georgia in the 2022 midterms. This event featured Alan Abramowitz, The Alben Barkley Emeritus Professor of Political Science at Emory University in Atlanta Georgia in conversation with USSC Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Bruce Wolpe and Research Associate, Victoria Cooper.
Catch more podcast and video analysis on the United States here.
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