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Australia's unique role
in a contested Pacific
8 July 2026
Within hours of Australia and Fiji signing two new security and cooperation agreements, China launched a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile that exploded near Tuvalu in what it called a “routine arrangement of the Chinese side’s annual military training.”
USSC CEO Dr Michael Green told The Australian, this is not a coincidence, “It’s meant to intimidate. It’s meant to be awe-inspiring, to send the signal that resistance is futile.”
While in Honiara, Australian Prime Minister spoke out against the launch saying, "There is no doubt that this is a provocative act by China, which does destabilise the region" and Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong told ABC News, "Australia's view is this test is destabilising for the region and raises the risk of miscalculation."
As tensions in the Pacific Islands Region heat up, the USSC has released the first paper in its Perspectives on Pacific Resilience series, exploring pathways forward for Pacific governance. In the first paper in the series, CSIS Deputy Director and Senior Fellow with the Australia Chair Kathryn Paik warns about the tendency to treat the Pacific Islands as pawns in a game of strategic control and urges the United States to adopt a longer-term definition of security interests that can remain consistent across different presidential administrations.
The language about empowering rather than exploiting Pacific Islands countries is front and centre in the new Fiji-Australia Vuvale Union. The new agreement opens with “Recognising the sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity and democratic systems of the Parties” and affirms the Pacific Islands Forum as “apex of the rules-based regional architecture that upholds international law.”
In this context, Australia and New Zealand hold vastly different roles from the United States, China or Japan. The antipodean countries are members of the Pacific Islands Forum themselves and partners in the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent.
Australia and New Zealand are not immune to China’s increasing aggression in the Pacific. In February 2025 China circumnavigated Australia and conducted live-fire exercises in the waters between Australia and New Zealand, causing flights to be re-routed.
Speaking at the ASPI Defence Conference in June, USSC Director of Foreign Policy and Defence Dr Lavina Lee warned that Chinese military planners, “wouldn’t be able to conclude right now that an attempt to coerce or project power into Australia from the northern approaches or from the South China Sea would be denied.”
This warning is more ominous given the response to the new Fiji-Australia agreements. China’s aggression this week highlights Australia and New Zealand’s unique power and vulnerability as Pacific Islands themselves.
Mari Koeck
Director of Engagement and Impact
Lead image: Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Suva, Fiji. Australia signed a new
defence alliance with Fiji on 6 July, bolstering ties with its South Pacific island neighbour.
(Photo by Leon Lord/AFP via Getty Images)
"Beijing's rapid and opaque nuclear weapons buildup is of great concern to the region and the world."
Recent content
REPORTOperationalising the Quad Critical Minerals InitiativeThe United States Studies Centre (USSC) at the University of Sydney, in partnership with the US Department of State, is convening two expert workshops in 2026 on how the United States, Japan, India and Australia can operationalise the 2025 Quad Critical Minerals Initiative and May 2026 framework agreement. The first of these events was held in February 2026 at the USSC. This report outlines the expert views expressed at that workshop and provides policy options for the Quad governments to consider. |
COMMENTARYBolstering Pacific resilience: A new paradigm for engagement by US allies and partnersIn the first paper in the "Perspectives on Pacific resilience" series, author Kathryn Paik, CSIS Deputy Director and Senior Fellow with the Australia Chair urges revising the definition of security interests regarding aid and support for Pacific Island nations. |
PODCASTUSSC Briefing Room | America at 250: America’s sacred (yet secular) documents with David SmithIn the second episode in the series with Reflections on America at 250 authors we spoke with Associate Professor David Smith about his article: America’s sacred documents. The first episode of the series is available here (there was an incorrect link in last week's newsletter). |
COMMENTARYAfter 250 years of American independence, what do Australians think about the US?In this op-ed for The Conversation, Senior Research Associates Samuel Garrett and Ava Kalinauskas share key takeaways from their recent polling about Australian attitudes towards the United States around the US semisesquicentennial. |
In the news
The Australian | China’s missile test: ‘resistance is futile’
Speaking to The Australian, USSC CEO Dr Michael Green said China's missile test hours after the Fiji-Australia treaties was, "clear, clear overtones of military intimidation."
The Conversation | Should Australia pause building new data centres? We asked 5 experts
USSC Director of Strategic Technologies Olivia Shen spoke with The Conversation about a pause on building data centres in Australia, saying, "Calls for a moratorium are calls for perfection to be the enemy of good."
Nine.com.au | Allegations of foreign interference surface at remote WA mine
Nine.com.au reports that Beijing stands accused of engaging in foreign interference in its bid to control development of a mine in remote WA. USSC Research Fellow Robert Monterosso was quoted in the article on this issue, saying it is "China’s playbook for critical minerals and rare earth dominance. They seek to buy up assets overseas, gain control of those assets, and link them into China’s own supply chains."
SMH | ‘I’m blaming JD’: Meet the ‘outsider’ in line for Trump’s job
USSC Director of Research Jared Mondschein spoke with The Sydney Morning Herald about Vice President JD Vance and his unlikely rise to be next in line to Trump, saying, "Trump liked JD Vance’s look, how effectively he debated his opponents."
Upcoming event
PUBLIC FORUM
Impact of the Supreme Court rulings on Trump 2.0
Join us for a special event featuring co-host of ABC’s Planet America Chas Licciardello and USSC Honorary Associate Dr Harry Melkonian.
From striking down President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs to upholding birthright citizenship, the US Supreme Court docket this year made history.
Which decisions are most consequential? How can the Supreme Court temper the power of the president? What are the long-term impacts of these decisions?
To discuss the final rulings of this year’s Supreme Court docket, please join us for a special event featuring co-host of ABC’s Planet America Chas Licciardello and USSC Honorary Associate Dr Harry Melkonian in conversation with USSC Director of Economic Security Hayley Channer.
DATE AND TIME
14 July 2026
6.00pm–7.30pm AEST
WHERE
Auditorium, The Michael Spence Building (F23) at the Corner of Eastern Avenue and City Road, The University of Sydney
DETAILS
Free, but registration is essential
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University of Sydney NSW 2006