25 June 2025

President Trump’s second term has been defined by a risk-taking approach to test both the limits of his presidential power and the effectiveness of different policy approaches. When presented with the opportunity to potentially cripple Iran’s nuclear development program, he ordered the strike, even though this move was not supported by key members of the MAGA movement. While the decisive move seems to have led to a threshold in ending the fighting between Israel and Iran, leaked early reporting indicates it may have only set Iran’s nuclear program back by months, rather than years.

Trump has also tested new approaches to policy like tariffs and immigration. The Supreme Court handed Trump a victory in ruling that he could continue to handle immigration as a foreign policy issue, which simultaneously increases the power the executive has to manage it and removes the constitutional obligation for due process in handling deportations. While the court said this might change depending on the outcome of an appeal based on merit, it is a significant victory for the president and a validation of his choice to pursue an unprecedented approach to deportations.

One of the biggest tests will play out next week as Republican lawmakers seek to pass the “Big, Beautiful Bill” by 4 July. President Trump is staking his reputation on this bill and when Republicans have flagged it may not be feasibly by the desired deadline, the White House has doubled down on their insistence it pass on time. This bill was the focus of the schism between Trump and Elon Musk and will require winning over fiscal conservatives who are opposed to the US$2.8 trillion deficit increase it would entail.

While President Trump’s track record on these gambles is mixed, his maximalist approach to the executive has seen results on a far faster timeline than would have been feasible if he asked for permission rather than forgiveness.

Mari Koeck
Director, Engagement and Impact

Lead image: President Donald Trump and senior staff monitor US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites from the White House Situation Room, Saturday, 21 June 2025. Portions of the image have been blurred for security reasons (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok).

"It was my great honor to Destroy All Nuclear facilities & capability, and then, STOP THE WAR!"

President Donald Trump on Truth Social | 25 June 2025

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