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19 July 2023
US-China climate talks bring hope but no breakthrough
In the sweltering, record-breaking, 38°C temperatures of Beijing, US Climate Envoy John Kerry meets with Chinese officials this week to resume discussions on both nations’ efforts to address climate change. The United States and China are the world’s two greatest polluters, together representing around 45 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions.
China leads the world and far outpaces the United States in the adoption of renewable energy sources like solar and wind. But, at the same time, as USSC Visiting Fellow Dan Rosen shared in the latest episode of The Briefing Room, China’s slowing economic growth since the COVID-19 pandemic has complicated its efforts to wean off the import of heavy-emitting products, like Australian coal.
Kerry faces increased pressure from Congress to hold China to account on its zero-emissions target for 2060, which appears increasingly out of reach amid Beijing’s approval of several new coal-fired power plants in the last year. While the chances of a major breakthrough this week are slim, the first meeting after a near year-long hiatus in US-China climate negotiations highlights renewed efforts from the Biden administration to stabilise the US-China relationship – with Kerry being the third cabinet member to visit Beijing in recent weeks and promise increased dialogue and cooperation.
NEWS WRAP
Third Trump indictment looms
- Trump touts imminent arrest for third indictment | In response to a letter from special counsel Jack Smith requesting his presence before a grand jury, former president Donald Trump announced on social media that this, “almost always means an Arrest and Indictment.” The latest charges are regarding his role in the efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election results. READ MORE HERE
- Jan 6 fake electors charged | On Tuesday, Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel handed down charges to 16 people involved in the ‘fake electors’ scheme who submitted false documents certifying votes for Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. The fake electors scheme spanned at least six states, including Georgia, where a separate criminal investigation is underway. READ MORE HERE
- DeFuture downsizes | Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, once heralded as ‘DeFuture’ of the Republican party, is struggling to finance his presidential campaign, already spending 40 per cent of raised funds, letting go of campaign staff and facing dwindling support in the first six weeks of his presidential campaigning. READ MORE HERE
- Writers’ block | Hollywood is experiencing its first industrywide shutdown in 63 years, with the SAG-AFTRA union representing around 160,000 Hollywood actors walking off the job on Friday in protest over low pay and career uncertainty with accelerating developments in artificial intelligence. READ MORE HERE
UK CPTPP moment outshines IPEF | The 14 members of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) met for their fourth round of negotiations in South Korea, but this was buried in the headlines about the United Kingdom’s much anticipated accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), “the biggest trade deal since Brexit”. READ MORE HERE
"You and I know things are changing"
Climate Envoy John Kerry to Chinese premier Li Qiang | 16 July 2023
EVENT
Sydney International Strategy Forum: The United States, Australia and the contested Indo Pacific
Support for alliances is strong in Washington, as the ambitious AUKUS pact charts new territory in critical technologies and sovereign capabilities and diverse Indo-Pacific networks of bilateral, trilateral, and quadrilateral cooperation shape the regional balance of power. At the same time, US allies and partners are expressing concerns about the Biden administration’s industrial policy agenda and US-China trade and technology wars, underscoring the complexities of “friend shoring” and “de-risking” critical supply chains. On the US domestic front, a looming 2024 presidential race and the prospect of another Trump presidency also raises questions about the future of sustained US engagement in the world.
The United States Studies Centre invites you to the launch of its flagship conference, the Sydney International Strategy Forum, where these issues, and the enormous risks
and opportunities associated with each, will be tackled by prominent experts and thought leaders. Confirmed speakers include Michele Flournoy, Admiral Phil Davidson, Dr Evan Medeiros, Ryan Lizza and Olivia Nuzzi.
TYPE
Conference
WHERE
Four Seasons Hotel Sydney, 199 George Street, The Rocks NSW
WHEN
SYDNEY | Wednesday, 1 November 2023, 8.30am-4.30pm AEDT
COST
Early bird: A$499 (ends 31 July 2023)
Student: A$180
Full price: A$560
Book your tickets here
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Commentary | Elon Musk's Twitter is becoming a sewer of disinformation Podcast | The Indo-Pacific impacts of China's fluctuating economy Commentary | We need to talk about America |
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BY THE NUMBERS
Spoiler alert: the possibility of a third-party candidate
By Victoria Cooper, Research Editor
Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia is perhaps best known for his stonewalling of Democrat-led legislation alongside Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema in the first two years of the Biden administration. While Manchin’s maverick-style spoiler role in the Democrat-led Senate may have earned him the epitaph of “America’s biggest political tease” by Democrat Whip Dick Durbin, Manchin’s headlining of an event with the No Labels group this week sparked more grave concerns among Democrats about the Senator’s potential to spoil their chances in the next presidential election.
‘No Labels’ is a non-partisan political movement, working to unite moderates in the two major parties and shepherd a centrist presidential candidate to the top job. The group appears to be gaining ground as majorities of registered voters in both parties say they want neither Presidents Biden or Trump to run for election again in 2024, and both leading candidates have approval ratings of less than 40 per cent.
The chances of a third-party candidate winning the White House are slim, but the chances of a third-party spoiler role are much greater.
According to a No Labels’ commissioned survey, in a three-person race between an anonymous third-party moderate candidate, Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the moderate candidate received 20 per cent support, Trump received 33 per cent and Biden, 28 per cent. The figures advance Trump’s lead over Biden by five percentage points when a hypothetical third candidate is considered, versus one point in a two-person contest. Early polls from several other sources show a similar result, with Trump/Republicans gaining a one to three percentage point lead over Biden/Democrats in a three-candidate race, where Biden/Democrats otherwise have a lead.
Polling before Election Day often suggests around 40 per cent of voters would consider voting for a third choice, yet election results show few with this intention will cast their vote for an alternative. Only two per cent of votes went to third choices in 2020 and more than five per cent in 2016.
Despite this, in a close election (which was certainly the case in both 2016 and 2020), these small margins of support for third choices may just be enough to affect candidates’ chances at winning the key battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Manchin’s appearance at the No Labels event this week and the findings from some of this recent polling may have spooked Democrats, but it is still too soon to know just how these trends may play out next November. What is sure is that the pressure is on for the two major parties to reach disaffected moderate to improve their chances at the presidency.
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University of Sydney NSW 2006
