No images? Click here
Geneva talks: a breakthrough
or new battleground?
26 November 2025
The centre of gravity in the war between Russia and Ukraine shifted from the frontlines in Ukraine to Geneva this week as European leaders rushed to meet with representatives of Ukraine and the Trump administration to attempt to negotiate changes to the 28-point peace plan shared last week. The original peace plan was leaked by Axios on Thursday and includes a number of Ukrainian concessions that even some Republican members of Congress say heavily favour the Russian position, including ceding land to Russia that Ukraine currently controls.
Over the weekend, President Trump imposed a Thanksgiving deadline (which is Thursday in the United States) for Ukraine to agree to the deal. While a number of points in the plan were deemed non-starters, Secretary of State Marco Rubio emerged from the Geneva talks on Tuesday saying they made “tremendous progress” over the course of the discussions. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen shared three top priorities from the European perspective:
“First, borders cannot be changed by force.” | This is in response to point 21 of the original plan, recognising Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk as “de facto Russian” and calling for Ukrainian forces to withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast they control.
“Second, as a sovereign nation, there cannot be limitations on Ukraine’s armed forces.” | Point six of the draft plan says, “the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel.” Their army is currently estimated at 800-880,000, so this would cut their armed forces by about a quarter, or more.
“Third, the centrality of the European Union in securing peace for Ukraine must be fully reflected.” | The text of the draft plan is vague on Ukraine’s security guarantees – an essential factor in whether Ukraine will be able to agree to the plan. Point 9 says, “European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland” but the only mentions of the EU are on market access and saying, “Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities.” In addition to mirroring some of the language around tolerance from the Gaza peace deal, this links to a key Russian misinformation point about the conflict and part of their justification for invading Ukraine in the first place.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said the plan forces them to choose between, “the loss of dignity, or risk of losing a key partner.” Global allies anxiously wait to see what details emerge about the “updated and refined” draft the White House and Ukraine put out a statement about on Monday.
The revised peace proposal has been reduced to 19 points. Yet some major sticking points remain – a reminder that the original document would have required Ukraine to limit the size of its military, abandon its NATO aspirations, and relinquish the remaining territory it holds in Donetsk. Naturally, the more palatable the terms become for Ukraine, the harder they will be for Russia to accept.
Ukraine said it has reached a “common understanding” on the peace plan and President Trump said he is now sending US representatives, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of the Army (and close JD Vance ally) Dan Driscoll, to meet with Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian representatives concurrently.
It remains to be seen whether this will be within striking distance of a deal that Ukraine, Russia, the United States and key European Leaders can get on board with. At this stage, Russia seem content to either sign a deal where they do not make concessions or keep fighting. The Ukrainians, Europeans and Americans will need to weigh up how much they are willing to give up to get the immediate fighting to stop.
Mari Koeck
Director of Engagement and Impact
Dr Gorana Grgić is a Senior Lecturer in US Politics and Foreign Policy
Lead photo: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Ukraine's Presidential Office Chief of staff Andriy Yermak hold a press conference following their closed-door talks on a US plan to end the war in Ukraine at the US Mission in Geneva, on 23 November 2025 (photo by Fabrice Coffrini for Getty Images).
"Much depends on America, because Russia pays the greatest attention to
American strength."
Recent content from us
BRIEFThe UK R&D ecosystem’s strategic capability towards AUKUS Pillar II: Barriers and opportunitiesThe UK’s strong R&D ecosystem is vital to AUKUS Pillar II — but structural barriers could hold it back. In a new brief, Research Fellow with the Centre for Statecraft and National Security Sophia Gaston outlines the UK’s strengths, gaps and the reforms needed to unlock trilateral capability. |
COMMENTARIESNext generation perspectives on the Australia-US AllianceTen Next Generation fellows published analysis as the culmination of their research fellowship with the USSC. Commentaries in this collection look at AUKUS Pillar II, export controls, symbiotic deterrence and the US-Australia alliance. |
COMMENTARYHow China and Russia are mastering the long gameIn this op-ed for The Australian, Director of Foreign Policy and Defence Dr Lavina Lee analyses the strategic partnership between China and Russia and what this means going forward. |
COMMENTARYWhat does the US Congress want with Australia’s eSafety commissioner?In the lead up to Australia's social media ban for kids under 16, the US House Committee on the Judiciary summoned Australia's eSafety Commissioner Julie Inman Grant to address censorship concerns. Non-Resident Senior Fellow Lester Munson explains the reasoning for the move in this article for The Conversation. |
PODCASTSupreme Court tests Trump’s tariffs – with Chas LicciardelloCo-host of ABC's Planet America Chas Licciardello joined Director of Engagement and Impact Mari Koeck to look at Trump's tariff case before the Supreme Court and the key questions that will decide the case. |
COMMENTARYThe heritage kerfuffle and 2028Non-Resident Senior Fellow Lester Munson analyses the schism happening within the MAGA movement and how the developments of the last few weeks are changing the trajectory of the movement and testing the cohesion of the Republican Party. |
Topic spotlight
Major developments in Australian AI
On 25 November, the Australian Government announced the establishment of the Australian AI Safety Institute. The institute will be tasked with evaluating emerging AI capabilities, sharing information, and supporting timely responses to address potential risks.
The announcement comes ahead of the National AI Capability Plan, expected by the end of 2025. As momentum builds around Australia’s AI regulatory landscape, USSC Non-Resident Fellow Helen Zhang and Business Council of Australia Director Mike Bareja discuss what Australia’s AI strategy could look like under the forthcoming plan.
In the news
The Australian | How worried should we be about Xi’s call to Trump?
USSC CEO Dr Michael Green analysed the significance of the Xi-Trump phone call, but noted that other outcomes could be worse for US allies, saying, "If Trump somehow was neutral or even sided with China, the loss of face for [Takaichi] would just be massive."
ABC | How critical minerals power our daily lives from the moment we wake up
USSC Director of Economic Security Hayley Channer spoke to ABC about the central role critical minerals play in both daily lives and national security, noting, "f you don’t have rare earths, then you don’t have the high-powered magnets that go into missiles and the jet engines that hold everything together."
ABC | How politicians could combat doubts about Epstein files release
USSC Honorary Associate Dr Harry Melkonian spoke with ABC news about the political realities involved in the release of the Epstein files, saying, "It doesn't matter where they're from, what their party is — they don't want to be seen as obstructing this investigation."
Upcoming events
A look back on Year One of Trump 2.0
The last 10 months have seen the longest federal government shutdown in US history, the highest levels of US tariffs imposed in nearly a century, unprecedented actions by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and a dramatic reshaping of federal government departments. Meanwhile, USSC polling ahead of the successful Albanese-Trump summit showed that Australians had negative views of President Trump but still didn't want to walk away from the Australia-US alliance. Additional USSC polling will be released ahead of this event.
After a historic year in US politics, Australia faces key questions about its most important ally.
- What have we learned from the year in US politics
- How has the second Trump administration measured up to expectations?
- Which of the administration's actions matter most for the future?
To answer these questions and to discuss the full results of the 2025 Allies and partners poll, join a panel of USSC experts: Chas Licciardello, co-host of “Planet America” on ABC TV, Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy David Smith and lecturer in American Studies Dr Kathryn Robison in conversation with USSC Director of Research Jared Mondschein.
10 December 2025
6.00-8.00pmAuditorium, The Michael Spence Building (F23) at the Corner of Eastern Avenue and City Road, The University of Sydney NSW 2006
Manage your email preferences | Forward this email to a friend
United States Studies Centre
Institute Building (H03)
University of Sydney NSW 2006