6 May 2026

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi arrived in Australia on Sunday to advance the most dynamic bilateral relationship in the Indo-Pacific today. She released a new economic security agreement with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese that leverages bilateral complementarities in critical minerals and natural gas and proposes economic rules sought by the two countries with the lowest tariff rates of the top 20 economies in the world. The deepening defence relationship is symbolised by Australia’s decision to procure and build 11 of Japan’s Mogami-class frigates for the Royal Australian Navy. The publics in both countries are squarely behind this expanding partnership, with polls consistently showing that Australians see Japan as the most trustworthy country in Asia.

Yet the Japan-Australia partnership has moved so quickly that the commentariat has sometimes had trouble explaining exactly what Japan means for Australia or where the relationship is heading. One red herring published recently warned that partnership with Japan could lead Australia into a war with China given the current friction between Tokyo and Beijing. This assertion misses both the origins of the current Sino-Japanese spat and the implications for Australia.

Japan’s goal is not confrontation with China, but instead to establish a stable and productive relationship with Beijing determined by mutual respect free of embargoes, military pressure and other forms of coercion.  That approach bears strong resemblance to the goals of Albanese own “stabilisation” policy towards China. The difference is that Japan has suffered far more military provocations than Australia has. The live fire exercises conducted by Chinese warships around Australia and New Zealand last year gave a small flavour of what Japan’s Navy and Coast Guard have been experiencing for years in the East China Sea and Pacific Ocean. And Takaichi knows that Australia can also expect more of the same.

To maintain the status quo against China’s coercive pressure Japan has increased its defence spending, tightened defence relations with the United States, and deepened security cooperation with key partners in the region with Australia at the top of the list. The legislation that paved the way for this greater collective defence cooperation was unprecedented for pacifist Japan so the National Diet attached provisions that military operations alongside like-minded partners in a crisis would only be allowed “if Japan’s national survival” were at stake.

When Prime Minister Takaichi was asked in the Diet last November whether a Chinese attack on Taiwan would represent such a situation (a reasonable question given that the PLA was in the middle of the largest military exercises around Taiwan in history only 70 kilometres from Japan), she said out loud what every Japanese official knows — it would. Beijing responded by blacklisting over 20 of Japan’s top corporations and imposing illegal and painful bans on rare earth exports to Japan. Takaichi refused to back down and the public rewarded her with a sweeping victory in February elections.

Interestingly the Asan Institute in Seoul found that Takaichi is now also the most popular world leader in Korea because of her steadfastness in the face of Chinese pressure (a real anomaly given the complicated history of Japan-Korea relations). Australians, who have been subjected to similar economic embargoes from China, should not want Japan to cave either. Rather than increasing risk for Australia, Japan’s stance reinforces the lesson that embargoes and pressure will not work.

Lead image: Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese take a selfie during Takaichi's visit to Australia (Getty).

"I genuinely look forward to forging an even deeper bond of personal trust with Prime Minister Albanese – a fellow leader who, like me, has a real passion for rock music – letting our respective strengths resonate with each other to create a powerful, dynamic harmony."

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in an op-ed for AFR | 4 May 2026

Recent content

In the news

By the numbers

Australia and Japan identify six high-potential critical minerals projects to collaborate on

This week, Australia and Japan signed multiple agreements to level up cooperation on critical minerals, energy and defence. As part of this, the two governments signed a Joint Statement on Elevated Critical Minerals Cooperation.

Critical mineral supply chains are highly concentrated in China and a few other dominant producers, which creates risks for Australian resource producers and downstream Japanese manufacturers. The Joint Statement reflects a growing commitment from both sides to collaborate on unlocking new sources of supply, earmarking A$1.67 billion in co-investment which is expected to be directed to six high-potential Australian critical minerals projects.

This investment, which includes A$1.3 billion from the Australian Government and A$370 million from the Japanese Government, is a welcome boost to global efforts to diversify critical mineral supply chains. But maximising this investment requires:

• Patient, long-term capital – Mining projects are capital-intensive and can take several years to set up, meaning more investments could be required down the track to unlock production.
• Demand scale and certainty – To unlock supply, projects need demand scale and certainty. This could require investments into Japan’s downstream processing and manufacturing of critical minerals, batteries, and semiconductors to scale up demand.  
• Stable and accurate prices – Even if new production comes online, many projects are at risk of price volatility and manipulation. Both governments should consider where minimum price floors, such as the one agreed between Lynas and Japan Australia Rare Earths, could be necessary to shield producers from unstable prices.

Manage your email preferences  |  Forward this email to a friend

United States Studies Centre
Institute Building (H03)
University of Sydney NSW 2006

​www.ussc.edu.au  |  us-studies@sydney.edu.au