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17 January 2024
Trump wins Iowa... yawn
By Victoria Cooper, Research Editor
Well... that was boring. The 31 minutes before Trump's victory was called did little to move me to the edge of my seat. We know now, what we knew then: Trump has a substantial and consolidated base of supporters in Iowa who want the former president back in the White House in 2025 – two-thirds of whom still believe Biden was not legitimately elected in 2020. Do we even bother to tune in to the rest of the primaries? Yes. Here’s two reasons:
One: Trump’s nomination looks to be all but inevitable, but the race is technically not over. No one in a competitive, open Republican primary since 1976 has won both Iowa and New Hampshire. In fact, in the last three competitive Republican races, the Iowa winner failed to seal the Republican nomination. Iowa – being older, more white, more evangelical, and more rural – is a natural home for rusted on Trump supporters. But future primaries, including New Hampshire next week, have electorates who are more receptive to a Trump alternative and are demographically more moderate, college-educated and suburban. Only about 13 percentage points separate Trump and Nikki Haley in New Hampshire. In Iowa, it was 30 per cent. A closer race in New Hampshire might just build momentum among ‘Never Trump’ or ‘preferably not Trump’ constituencies (‘might just’ being instructive).
Two: Even if New Hampshire is just delaying the inevitable, we’re watching history in action. No one has carried Iowa by such a large margin of victory, let alone with 91 felony charges, a full presidential term, and two impeachments attached. Perhaps it’s cliché to, yet again, highlight Trump’s history-making proclivity, but it’s less about Trump himself and more about what his voters’ support indicates: large numbers of Americans are dissatisfied with the status quo, they are energised by concern over the Democrats’ progressive policy priorities, they feel unheard by elected representatives and under-represented by decision-makers, and they trust Donald Trump more than key US democratic institutions, including the courts and the electoral process. The primaries’ ability to unveil and clarify these trends, and the implications of these attitudes on the general election, let alone the future of US politics, are certainly worth watching over the coming weeks.
For more on what to expect this election year read our Guide to the 2024 presidential election: from primaries to president by Research Associates Ava Kalinauskas and Samuel Garrett
NEWS WRAP
Congress has four days to avert shutdown
Stop press: stopgap | With just days until a new government shutdown deadline, Congress is set to pass a stopgap spending bill to keep federal agencies running until March. Negotiations between House Republicans and Democrats on further budget measures are continuing. READ MORE HERE
Red Sea strikes | The US military launched new strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen as it ramps up its actions in the region. Attacks in the Red Sea in recent weeks have raised fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East. READ MORE HERE
And then there were three | The once-sprawling field of candidates vying for the Republican presidential nomination has shrunk to just three. With the withdrawal of long-shot candidates Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson this week, only Donald Trump, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis remain in the running. READ MORE HERE
The wafer thins further | The slim 9-seat majority that House Republicans won in the 2022 midterms continues to shrink as a result of vacancies, medical leave, political scandals and other misadventures. Due to a confluence of absences and casual vacancies, it is possible that in the coming weeks House Republicans will only be able to afford a single defection on a floor vote, complicating the job of Republican Speaker Mike Johnson as he seeks to pass crucial spending legislation. READ MORE HERE
United States of Antarctica | A winter storm has brought freezing weather to much of the central United States, with thousands of homes losing power. Temperatures in parts of Montana plunged to almost –50°C over the weekend — colder than the South Pole. READ MORE HERE
"We did not achieve our goal tonight and we need an America-First patriot in the White House. The people spoke loud and clear about who they want. Tonight I am suspending my campaign and endorsing Donald J. Trump and will do everything I can to make sure he is the next U.S. President."
Vivek Ramaswamy suspending his presidential campaign | 16 January 2024
DID YOU USSC?
- INSIGHTS | USSC Insights: Reactions to Iowa
Read the reactions of various USSC experts to the outcome of the first 2024 presidential election event, the Iowa causes on 15 January. Discussing their thoughts on what the result means and why it matters are Dr Michael J. Green, Jared Mondschein, Victoria Cooper, Associate Professor David Smith, Professor Brendon O'Connor, and Non-Resident Senior Fellows Bruce Wolpe and Lester Munson. READ MORE HERE
- EXPLAINER | A guide to the 2024 presidential election: from primaries to president
Research Associates Ava Kalinauskas and Samuel Garrett bring you what you need to know about the 2024 presidential election, from the first primary contests in January to the general election in November. They cover the key events to watch during the busy election year and the complex patchwork of laws and party rules that govern the road to the White House. READ MORE HERE
- COMMENTARY | After Iowa landslide, can anyone stop the Trump 2024 juggernaut?
"In an election where enthusiasm is the most precious commodity, Trump has shown that his base not only comes to the party, but is the Republican Party" writes Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe in the Sydney Morning Herald. What does this mean in the run up to New Hampshire and other primary races? READ MORE HERE
- COMMENTARY | Why two largely white and tiny states still matter so much to the US presidential election
In The Conversation, Research Associates Ava Kalinauskas and Samuel Garrett explain how Iowa and New Hampshire reached the top of the nominating calendar, despite their population being hardly representative of the United States as a whole. READ MORE HERE
- PODCAST | Shaping the Australian Navy’s future fleet
Director of Foreign Policy and Defence Professor Peter Deanappears on the Defence Connect podcast to discuss the factors shaping the future of the Royal Australian Navy. The wide-ranging discussion covers topics such as the implications of Australia's recent Defence Strategic Review for the development of an Australian nuclear-powered submarine fleet, and the navy's role in helping deliver impactful projection. LISTEN TO THE EPISODE
EVENT
Election Watch 2024: Trump v. Biden redux?
The Iowa caucuses on 15 January were the first test of whether any GOP challengers can make a dent on former president Trump’s dominating lead in the Republican race to be the presidential nominee. From February, the primary races will accelerate in the lead up to a climactic Super Tuesday set to occur around the same time as some of the pending Trump trials. In the midst of this, President Biden will deliver possibly his final State of the Union address, making a direct appeal to the American people about his accomplishments and vision for the future.
Can President Biden cut through the noise around the Trump campaign? Do any GOP challengers have a shot at dethroning Trump? What should we expect in the lead up to Super Tuesday?
To discuss these issues, please join us for a live panel discussion with USSC experts. We’ll give a readout on the Iowa caucus results and what it portends for the year ahead.
WHEN
30 January 2024, 6-7pm AEDT
TYPE
Live panel discussion
WHERE
Auditorium, The Michael Spence Building (F23),
Corner of Eastern Avenue and City Road,
The University of Sydney NSW 2006
BY THE NUMBERS
Trump smashes Iowa record
By Ava Kalinauskas and Samuel Garrett, Research Associates
Trump’s blowout win in the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses saw him take a 30-point margin of victory over his nearest rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. While Trump’s dominance over the caucuses is hardly unexpected, his win not only indicates his continued sway over the modern Republican party, but is record-breaking historically. Until 2024, the largest Iowa win by a Republican in modern political history was in 1988, when Bob Dole trounced second-placed Pat Robertson by 13 percentage points.
History shows that the winner of the Iowa caucuses is by no means guaranteed to secure the nomination. Just three winners of the eight contested Republican Iowa caucuses since 1976 have become the party’s nominee. In 2012, Rick Santorum secured a 34-vote win over the eventual nominee Mitt Romney in Iowa’s closest ever result, while in 1988 third-placed George HW Bush would go on to win the nomination and the presidency. However, the scale of Trump’s win in 2024 suggests there is little chance of a similar comeback for his remaining rivals DeSantis and Nikki Haley.
The key question for the week to come will be whether Nikki Haley can recover from her third-place finish and maintain momentum into next week’s New Hampshire primary, where she is currently polling second behind Trump. Without a win there or a strong showing in the following South Carolina primary, Trump’s dominance in Iowa will almost certainly translate into a stranglehold on the Republican presidential nomination within weeks.
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United States Studies Centre
Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006
