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12 October 2022
US midterms four weeks from today
The US midterm elections are four weeks from today and the United States Studies Centre (USSC) will be bringing you everything you need to know about the midterms and the alliance.
State of play: The battle for both houses of Congress is tight. With a 50-50 split in the Senate, either party needs to pick up one seat to gain the majority. The House is split 220-212 in favour of the Democrats. If Republicans pick up five seats, they gain the majority. Given historical trends of the president’s party losing ground in the midterms and the latest polling, all signs point to Republicans gaining the House.
For US voters, it is largely coming down to a battle between inflation and abortion, but the party in power will play a critical role in determining the top issues for the alliance. Both parties are united on standing up to China, but differ on the implementation of AUKUS, trade and export controls and collaboration on innovation and advanced technology.
To look at the implications of the midterms for the US-Australia alliance, USSC will deliver:
- US midterms 2022: The stakes for Australia and the alliance | Analysis of polling on US domestic and alliance issues across the United States, Australia and Japan
- Midterms explainers | A series of explainers on what the midterms are, key races and issues to watch, the impact of the midterms on foreign policy, and Congressional committees
- Polling deep dives | A series of write-ups with more in-depth analysis of the USSCpolling around AUKUS, US domestic issues, emerging technology trends, foreign policy and climate change
- Events | A half-day conference in Canberra exploring key themes from the midterms and the polling, a student midterms watch party and a public event featuring The New York Times’ Jane Coaston and ABC’s Annabel Crabb.
Sign up here for publication notifications and event invitations.
NEWS WRAP
Herschel Walker faces a major hurdle to win Georgia
Eye on the midterms | With abortion rights a key issue driving voters to the polls this November, candidate Herschel Walker faces a major hurdle to win the Georgia Senate seat as news circulates that the staunchly anti-abortion ex-football star paid an ex-girlfriend to have an abortion twice. READ MORE HERE
20 years since Bali | Today marks 20 years since the 2002 Bali Bombings. The attack by Jemaah Islamiyah, an Al Qaeda-allied extremist group, which killed 88 Australians, targeted major tourist spots in Kuta and the US Consulate in Denpasar, in retaliation for Australia’s support of the US War on Terror. READ MORE HERE
Ukraine war intensifies | US President Joe Biden pledged to “continue providing Ukraine with the support needed to defend itself” as the war intensifies. After warning potential nuclear action, Russia commenced its largest missile strikes targeting civilian infrastructure in major Ukrainian cities, likely in revenge for an attack on a major bridge linking Crimea to Russia. The latest attacks even prompted China and India – who had previously refrained from criticising the invasion – to call for a de-escalation. READ MORE HERE
NOPEC | After making headlines in July with a controversial fist bump between President Biden and the crowned prince of Saudi Arabia, the US-Saudi relationship is back in the headlines. Despite US lobbying efforts, OPEC+ – the intergovernmental organisation of major oil-producing states – announced its plan to slash oil production from November. This is expected to raise petrol prices and benefit Russia by creating greater demand for Russian oil supplies. READ MORE HERE
Global recession fears | With the US Federal Bank set to increase interest rates by 0.75 per cent again in November as part of its efforts to control inflation, Australia’s Treasurer Jim Chalmers warned Australia’s recession risk is "probable". The Australian dollar dropped over 17 per cent since April to now 63.3 US cents – the lowest level in two and a half years. READ MORE HERE
PUBLIC FORUM
NEW VENUE | Blackness and China: Tensions and solidarity
During the Cold War, America’s ideological competition with authoritarian regimes compelled American leaders to address their country’s own longstanding racial inequities, a frequent source of criticism by communist nations. While the Chinese Communist Party expressed solidarity with ideas of equality for African Americans, tensions as well as tropes around African Americans persisted in China.
What do Sino-African American and Sino-Black relations look like today? What roles do ideas of race and ethnicity have in US-China relations? What does this mean for a multi-cultural Australia?
Please join us for an address on these issues by Dr Keisha Brown, an Associate Professor of History at Tennessee State University and expert on modern Chinese history and Sino-Black relations, and a conversation with USSC CEO Dr Michael Green.
WHEN
Wednesday, 12 October, 6-7.30pm
LOCATION
Auditorium, The Michael Spence Building (F23), Corner of Eastern Avenue and City Road, The University of Sydney, Camperdown NSW 2006
COST
Free, but registration is essential
ANALYSIS
OPEC won't back west on Ukraine, Hostile to Biden
Bruce Wolpe
Non-Resident Senior Fellow, United States Studies Centre
The OPEC+ decision signals a deeper entente between Russia and Saudi Arabia: calculated strategic scheming by Vladimir Putin and Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince and the effective leader of the country.
Putin, failing and flailing in Ukraine, wants maximum pain inflicted on the NATO countries, and their people, for NATO’s expansion and exceptionally effective support for Ukraine and President Zelensky. Putin wants President Joe Biden to be seen as a loser.
MBS wants the petrodollars and to inflict injury on Biden for his animus towards Saudi Arabia. But there is a collateral blow from this raw petrol power play that Putin and MBS have found common cause in executing: To take Biden down by weakening his political standing as president in the United States.
The easiest way to do that is to do all in their power to ensure Biden and the Democrats suffer a defeat in the midterms in November by losing control of Congress – thereby neutering Biden’s presidency.
To this end, nothing is more effective than a significant hike in the price of gasoline for a full month before voters make up their minds which way to vote as they drive to cast their ballots in the November 8 midterm elections.
This is an excerpt from OPEC won't back west on Ukraine, Hostile to Biden, published 12 October, 2022.
We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Remarks by President Biden at a fundraiser | 6 October, 2022
BY THE NUMBERS
Sneak peek | US midterms polling: Collaboration on emerging technologies
In September, USSC conducted a survey to test sentiment toward different areas of the alliance agenda in the United States, Australia and Japan. One area of strong alignment was around expanding collaboration on emerging technology. A strong majority in both Australia and Japan favour working with the United States on everything from AI to quantum computing. In Australia, 69 per cent agree or strongly agree they should be working with the United States, compared to 64 per cent of Japanese respondents. This highlights the opportunity for the Quad and other partnerships to take an even stronger stance on a collaborative tech agenda.
Want to find out what percentage of Americans, Australians and Japanese respondents are against Japan joining AUKUS? Or the surprising amount of Trump voters who want the United States to rejoin an agreement like the Trans-Pacific Partnership? Subscribe to USSC research alerts to be the first to receive our upcoming report on these issues.
VIDEO
Is Russia's invasion of Ukraine a turning point for all US allies or just NATO?
Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, the USSC hosted a webinar to discuss the implications for US allies. Six months later, and following the recent escalation in military strikes, it is timely to revisit this conversation. How will Russia’s invasion change the US approach to the Indo-Pacific? Should the Australian Government issue a new Defence Strategic Update to factor in involvement with Europe or reduced attention from the United States?
To discuss these issues, the USSC hosted a webinar featuring USSC Senior Lecturer Dr Gorana Grgic in conversation with Non-Resident Senior Fellow Stephen Loosley AM.
Catch more podcast and video analysis on the United States here.
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University of Sydney NSW 2006
