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The midterm countdown: Senate edition
29 July 2026
The US midterm elections are less than 100 days away. While the House of Representatives is already on a five-week recess, the Senate has just over a week before it plans to adjourn for the August recess. Heading into this campaign stretch, the Senate is facing a daunting list of legislative priorities with limited numbers.
McConnell’s absence continues
After being absent from the Senate since his hospitalisation on 14 June, Senator Mitch McConnell released a new statement this week, including a statement from the Office of the Attending Physician which said that, “He is not yet medically cleared to leave the rehab facility and return to office.”
Legislative priorities
McConnell has missed 38 votes since his being hospitalised, including the tight votes on the War Powers Resolution and housing bill. Without McConnell, Republicans lack the votes to move the farm bill out of committee. The 30 September budget deadline is looming and Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he wants to pass a short-term stopgap funding bill before the break. President Trump is continuing to put pressure on senators to pass the SAVE America Act and a spokeswoman for the president said
his “patience is running out” with Senator Thune. Speaking to the press, the majority leader pointed to the number of votes on the bill that had already failed and said, “If I thought there was a path to getting a result, I’m all for it.”
The new Senate
As world leaders gathered in Washington to mourn the late Senator Lindsey Graham, many have noted this is the end of an era for the Republican Party. Even if the balance of power does not change in November, the Senate will look significantly different because a record 11 senators are not running again and two more (Bill Cassidy and John Cornyn) lost their primary bids following opposition from Trump.
The Senate races in Maine and Michigan have gained so much attention because they could easily determine the balance of power in the next Senate. Michigan heads to the polls next week for a Democratic primary in a state that backed President Trump in both 2016 and 2024. In Maine, incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins will see if she can win again in a state that has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election since 1992.
If Democrats prevail in the Senate in November, expect pushback on White House legislative priorities and nominations and a wave of hearings and investigations to challenge the new limits of power President Trump has pursued in his second term.
Mari Koeck
Director of Engagement and Impact
Lead image: Senator Mitch McConnell at a senate vote in June 2026 at the US Capitol
in Washington, DC. (Photo by Nathan Posner via Getty Images)
"John Thune should not allow the United States Senate to “leave town” until it passes The Save America Act or, far better still, TERMINATES THE FILIBUSTER."
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In the news
The Nightly | US Democratic Senator Chris Coons says next President must stop hitting allies with tariffs
After Australia received the higher level of tariffs in the latest round from the Trump administration, USSC CEO Dr Michael Green spoke with The Nightly, saying, "It is political, economic and strategic self harm but high tariffs have been his leitmotif since the 1980s, and he is not giving them up."
Nine News | US-Saudi uranium deal sparks fears of ‘nuclear arms race in the Middle East’
USSC Research Fellow Dr Christopher Watterson spoke with Nine News about the new nuclear deal between the United States and Saudi Arabia, saying, "They want to assert control over the Middle East as a regional power."
By the numbers
Australia disadvantaged under new US tariff regime, despite 60% of Australian exports being exempt
The US Supreme Court’s decision to strike down President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs has not deterred the administration from rebuilding a tariff wall around the US economy.
The United States has placed a 12.5% tariff on 38 major trading partners, including Australia, after a US Trade Representative (USTR) investigation found that they do not prohibit (or effectively prohibit) imports of goods made with forced labour. A group of 17 other countries that were judged as operating a ‘partial regime’ of banning forced-labour imports are now charged a 10% tariff rate.
Australia now faces a higher tariff rate than its initial Liberation Day rate. The figure above shows that Australia’s relative tariff advantage fell from 1.88% in December 2025 to -0.34%. A negative value means Australian exporters face higher tariffs than competing suppliers into the US market.
This is an excerpt of Australia disadvantaged under new US tariff regime, despite 60% of Australian exports being exempt.
Robert Monterosso
Research Fellow
Upcoming event
CONFERENCE
Sydney International Strategy Forum 2026
From the Iran War to energy markets and Chinese ballistic missile tests in the Pacific, 2026 has been a year marked by disruption and disorder. In its 75th year, the ANZUS Treaty remains a source of stability enhanced by strengthened ties among like-minded partners across the Indo-Pacific. Yet questions are also growing about the trajectory of American power, Chinese intentions towards Taiwan, the impact of the trans-Atlantic rift, and the growing weaponisation of economic interdependence.
Will ANZUS and the alliances in the Indo-Pacific be overwhelmed by this disorder or stand as a collective breakwater?
Join us to analyse, debate and interpret these dynamics in real time with leading experts from the United States, Australia and the Indo-Pacific at the 4th annual Sydney International Strategy Forum. Confirmed speakers include:
- Dr Kurt Campbell | Chairman and Co-Founder of The Asia Group and former US Deputy Secretary of State
- Dr Janine Davidson | President of Metropolitan State University of Denver and former US Under Secretary of the Navy
- The Hon. Randall Schriver | Chairman of the Board at The Institute for Indo-Pacific Security and former US Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs
- Peter Varghese AO | Chancellor at the University of Queensland and former Secretary of the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade
- Bilahari Kausikan | Singaporean academic and former Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Singapore
- Assoc. Prof. Sheena Chestnut Greitens | Associate Professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin and Director of the University of Texas’ Asia Policy Program
DATE AND TIME
23 September 2026
8.00am–5.00pm AEST
WHERE
Four Seasons Hotel, Sydney
DETAILS
Early Bird Rate (Until 31 July 2026): $799
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United States Studies Centre
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