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22 November 2023
Happy birthday to the oldest-ever US president
By Victoria Cooper, Research Editor
While birthdays are typically a cause for celebration, the 81st birthday of US President Joe Biden on Monday 20 November re-upped concerns that the president’s advanced age may injure his chances at re-election next year. Poll after poll show Democrat voters are unenthusiastic about another Biden term and often cite his age as their number one concern about voting for him again in 2024. According to the latest NYT/Siena College poll, 71 per cent of voters, including more than half of Democrat voters, in six key battleground states say Biden is “too old” to be president, where only 31 per cent said the same just three years ago.
Biden is not only the oldest-ever US president but also the most unpopular president seeking re-election at this point in the election cycle, having only 39.5 per cent of Americans’ approval on his birthday. Surveys also show declining favour of Biden among key constituencies that boosted his success in 2020. Support for Biden among younger voters – a demographic where Biden won 60 per cent of the vote compared to Trump’s 36 per cent according to exit polls in 2020 – has declined a significant 15 percentage points since September, according to one national survey. Another shows non-white voters under 45 years of age – a group that has reliably voted for Democrats for decades – supported Biden over Trump by 39 points in 2020; while in 2023, Biden is only ahead of Trump among this same demographic by 6 points.
There are 349 days until the 2024 election, so it is still too soon to know how voters will feel in a year. Yet, with his age so front-of-mind for critical voters and consistently low approval ratings, President Biden is going to need much more than a ‘don’t fall’ strategy to recover some of the enthusiasm and belief of the over 81 million voters that turned out for him in 2020. Perhaps then, a path forward would be the ultimate birthday gift.
NEWS WRAP
OpenAI's leadership an open question
- Generating chaos at OpenAI | More than 90 per cent of workers at OpenAI, a leading US artificial intelligence developer and the creators of ChatGPT, have threatened to resign after the company’s board suddenly ousted CEO Sam Altman. Over 700 workers signed a letter pledging to follow Altman to Microsoft, joining several OpenAI shareholders in their efforts
to reinstate Altman as leader of the company. READ MORE HERE
- New concerns over voting rights | A federal court ruled only the federal government could bring legal challenges under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act – the part of the law that prohibits racially discriminatory election and voting rules – preventing legal challenges from private citizens and civil rights groups. The opinion is expected to be appealed to the US Supreme Court, with concerns the ruling may weaken voting protections for racial minorities. READ MORE HERE
- New China-Aus rift in the waters | Just weeks after Prime Minister Albanese’s laudably successful visit to Beijing, China’s PLA Navy has been accused of “unsafe and unprofessional” conduct after sonar pulses emitted by a Chinese warship injured Australian divers conducting operations in support of UN sanctions enforcement near Japan. Chinese officials have accused such operations as a provocative spy mission by the United States and its allies. READ MORE HERE
- Commemorating 60 years since JFK | Today marks the 60th anniversary of the assassination of President John F Kennedy on 22 November 1963. Known for his youthful vigour and speeches such as “ask not what your country can do for you,” President Kennedy is remembered for his and his family’s continuing public service, not least carried on in the appointment of his daughter Caroline Kennedy as US ambassador to Australia. READ MORE HERE
Trump must be “Miss Manners” | The DC Circuit Court of Appeals looks set to restore the limited gag order on President Trump that restricts his ability to directly criticise Special Counsel Jack Smith and members of his team in the federal election subversion trial. Trump’s lawyers argued the gag order is a violation of free speech and injurious to Trump’s re-election bid, saying Trump should not be forced to “speak Miss Manners while everyone else is throwing targets.” READ MORE HERE
"I knew that when my husband was elected governor that I had to have something more to do than to pour tea. I did not intend to spend my time in the governor's mansion in that way."
First Lady Rosalynn Carter, St Göran Lecture | 6 May 1982
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Guest contributor Hirohito Ogi argues the Japanese Self-Defense Force's joint command structure and its command and control cooperation with the United States need to be updated to account for its planned shift in force posture and force structure. READ MORE HERE
- REPORT | Enduring presence: How Australia can support a more resilient US maritime posture in the Indo-Pacific
Blake Herzinger explores the ample of opportunities for the US-Australia alliance to offset vulnerabilities in the US Indo-Pacific maritime presence. READ MORE HERE
- PODCAST | Technology and Security (TS) podcast | The Hon Dr Andrew Leigh on AI and competition, technology and productivity, and evaluating government
In this episode, Dr Miah Hammond-Errey is joined by the Hon. Dr Andrew Leigh to discuss artificial intelligence (AI) in the context of competition, the initial months of the Australian Centre for Evaluation and coordinating with overseas regulators on the complexities of AI. LISTEN TO THE EPISODE
- PODCAST | USSC Briefing Room | Covering presidents Obama, Trump and Biden with Ryan Lizza and Olivia Nuzzi
Host Mari Koeck sits down with Politico's Ryan Lizza and New York Magazine's Olivia Nuzzi to discuss what the US presidents are like behind the scenes and the fortunes of Trump and Biden in 2024. LISTEN TO THE EPISODE
EVENT
Economic security in a turbulent world
The world economy is undergoing a patchwork reversal of global integration as major powers seek to “de-risk” key economic relationships and use new policy tools to boost domestic investment in strategic industries.
The United States Studies Centre invites you to join us as we convene a major international conference — “Economic Security in a Turbulent World” — to discuss these issues, bringing together policymakers, business executives and leading experts from the United States, Europe, and Asia, as well as from Australia.
Save the date for the opportunity to learn from leading experts in geopolitics and economic policy and engage in robust and interactive discussion on the key issues facing Australia, the United States and the Alliance.
TYPE
Conference
WHERE
Sydney CBD
WHEN
19–20 June 2023. 8.30am–5.00pm
BY THE NUMBERS
Americans undecided, but Australians prefer another four years of Biden
By Victoria Cooper, Research Editor
Recent ABC News/Ipsos polling shows both leading candidates for the two major US political parties are suffering the same disapproval problem with the American public. Only around a third of Americans view the two presidents, Biden (33 per cent) and Trump (29 per cent), favourably, and successive surveys show voters in both parties are almost equally dissatisfied with the prospects of another four years of either candidate.
But, when the United States Studies Centre (USSC) asked Australians about the two candidates, they appeared much more approving of a second Biden, than a second Trump, term. According to the latest USSC polling, 32 per cent of Australians think a second Biden term would be a good or very good thing for Australia, while 25 per cent said the same of a second Trump term.
Sure, only seven per cent separates Australians’ positive sentiments toward the two candidates, yet Australians hold much more negative perceptions about another four years of Trump than Biden. Twenty-two per cent of Australians said a second Biden term would be bad or very bad for Australia, where 45 per cent (23 per cent more) said the same of Trump. In fact, those Australians with a negative perception of a second Trump term outnumber those with a positive view by a margin of almost two to one.
You can read the full findings from the USSC’s latest polling here: One year from the 2024 US presidential election: The stakes for Australia and the alliance.
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United States Studies Centre
Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006
