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18 May 2022
More than a quarter of Democrats believe in electoral replacement theory
One in three Americans, including 36 per cent of Republicans and 27 per cent of Democrats, believe there is a concerted effort to replace natural-born US citizen votes with immigrant votes according to an Associated Press-NORC poll released last week. While the poll found that the majority of Americans disagreed with the electoral “replacement theory” sentiment, the high number of Americans who did agree makes clear that opinions previously castigated as extremist, anti-Semitic or racist are moving into the mainstream.
Perhaps even more startling is the small partisan split on the issue. The nine-point difference is considerably smaller than the partisan split on almost all other policy priorities covered in the United States Studies Centre’s (USSC) 2019 polling, including trade and tariffs (38 points), funding for medical treatment (48 points), gun control (60 points), and reducing fossil fuels (66 points).
The divisive issue of gun control merged with discussions of “replacement theory” this week. The gunman in the recent mass shooting in Buffalo released a manifesto citing that the predominantly Black residents were part of an effort to “ethnically replace my own people.”
This act of hate and violence, occurring so swiftly after the release of the AP-NORC poll, makes public belief in or acceptance of “replacement theory” ideas front of mind. However, whether this examination of American's beliefs will fade as quickly as the gun debate usually does after a mass shooting or whether it will lead to changed hearts and minds is yet to be seen.
NEWS WRAP
10 killed in hate crime in Buffalo
Buffalo shooter intended to continue attack | Following the race-based shooting in Buffalo, New York, evidence emerged that the 18-year old accused shooter intended to continue his rampage beyond the 10 people he killed while live-streaming the atrocities. Buffalo Police Commissioner Joseph Gramaglia cited that the shooter’s plan “was to leave there and continue with his carnage” had he not been stopped by the police. READ MORE HERE
US ASEAN special summit concludes | The two-day Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) special summit in DC wrapped with President Biden nominating National Security Council staffer Yohannes Abraham as the next US ambassador to ASEAN. While the administration continues assuring regional partners that the Indo-Pacific remains a priority, the most significant US announcement from the summit was US$150 million for new regional initiatives. READ MORE HERE
Sweden and Finland’s NATO bid | After decades of military non-alignment, leaders of Finland and Sweden signified their intent to join the NATO alliance. President Biden will host the leaders at the White House on Thursday, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken saying the US would “strongly support” their applications. Not all nations are so welcoming, as Turkey threatened to oppose the expansion, which requires all NATO members’ approval to succeed. READ MORE HERE
McCarthy subpoenaed | The House Jan 6 committee subpoenaed five prominent Republican lawmakers, including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (D-CA). Other than the Ethics Committee, House Committees generally do not subpoena members of Congress as compliance with House investigations is usually voluntarily given. McCarthy has long refused to release details of his closed-door conversations where Trump is believed to have admitted some culpability for the Jan 6 riots. READ MORE HERE
Trump tips Pennsylvania primary winner | Although five states conducted their primary today, all eyes were on the purple swing state of Pennsylvania - where former President Trump won and lost the state by slim margins in 2016 and 2020. The Republican races for both the Senate and governor positions were tight with major consequences for the direction of the party. Trump-backed retired Army colonel Doug Mastriano emerged the victor in the primary for governor. READ MORE HERE
Bottom line is we're doing the work to make real the promise of America for every American – a promise that holds every person is created equal and deserves to be treated equally throughout their lives. We've never fully lived up to that promise but we've never ever before walked away from it.
President Joe Biden at an event for Asian-American Pacific Islander Heritage Month | 17 May 2022
WEBINAR | 26 MAY
What's next for NATO in the Indo-Pacific after Ukraine?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February altered the European security architecture for generations to come. One clear piece of evidence of this: Finland and Sweden announcing they will be formally applying for membership in the NATO alliance – ending their decades-long neutrality and elevating their NATO engagement from Enhanced Opportunity Partners, alongside Australia, to fully-fledged members.
To discuss these issues, please join us for a webinar discussion with Senior Lecturer in US Politics and Foreign Policy Dr Gorana Grgic in conversation with incoming CEO Dr Mike Green.
WHEN:
SYDNEY | Thursday, 26 May 2022 | 10:00-11:00am AEST
WASHINGTON DC | Wednesday, 25 May 2022 | 8-9:00pm EDT
COST:
Free but registration is essential.
You can also subscribe to have event invitations and reminders sent straight to your inbox, so you never have to miss an event!
ANALYSIS
Before you say, 'I told you so' to the unvaccinated
Victoria Cooper
Research Associate at the United States Studies Centre
The United States has now surpassed one million COVID-19 related deaths.
As the United States assesses what went wrong, unvaccinated Americans have received a lot of attention. President Biden warned in July 2021, “the only pandemic we have is among the unvaccinated”. And, in some ways, he was right; two-thirds of US COVID deaths since then have been among the unvaccinated.
But, President Biden was also very wrong.
Yes, it is fair to emphasise the role vaccine avoidance played in reaching the one million deaths milestone. Around a quarter of America’s COVID deaths were considered preventable with vaccination. The messaging on vaccines also implied the choice not to get vaccinated was your own life-threatening one to make.
More so, the United States still seriously lags behind other high-income countries in terms of its vaccinated population. Just over 65 per cent of the US eligible population is ‘fully vaccinated’, compared to around 80 per cent in Australia and an OECD average of more than 70 per cent.
Yet, the ‘pandemic of the unvaccinated’, is actually a pandemic of the vulnerable – namely, the old, sick and poor.
BY THE NUMBERS
Funding pledges for COVAX
By Sarah Hamilton
Former Research Associate at the United States Studies Centre
COVAX, a UN-backed global immunisation initiative comprised of health bodies and non-profit organisations, was created in 2020 to provide COVID-19 vaccines to low and middle-income countries that might otherwise lack access. The initiative's success has largely depended on receiving sufficient funding from donor countries in order to be able to secure sufficient doses.
The United States pledged more funding to the COVAX program than any other nation at US$4 billion in 2020 and 2021. Germany and Japan pledged the next highest amounts in funding at just over US$1 billion each. China, on the other hand, pledged only US$100 million, preferring direct donations outside of the COVAX scheme.
VIDEO
ALLIANCE DINNER 2022 | Australian Parliament House lighting & introductory remarks from Mark Baillie
United States Studies Centre Chairman Mark Baillie shared these remarks at our Alliance Dinner on 28 March 2022 and announced the lighting of Parliament House with the US and Australian flags in honour of the 70th anniversary of the ANZUS Treaty.
Catch more analysis on the United States on the USSC YouTube channel.
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United States Studies Centre
Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006
