13 May 2026

As the US war with Iran shows few signs of resolution, President Donald Trump is headed to China for a high-stakes bilateral summit with one of Tehran’s most important strategic partners. Ahead of the summit, there is little indication whether this will be conciliatory or competitive in nature. Both sides have clear priorities, so the announcements (or conspicuous lack thereof) on these key issues will be the biggest indicator of the summit’s significance.

Taiwan | The United States has long held a policy of “strategic ambiguity” towards Taiwan, but Chinese President Xi Jinping has made no secret of the desire to reunify Taiwan with mainland China. A 2025 USSC strategy simulation demonstrated that a Taiwan contingency would have severe consequences requiring close coordination by US-Japan-Australia. The war with Iran further distracts the United States and depletes key resources, so any US concessions on Taiwan would have long-lasting impacts.

AI | The Trump administration’s AI Action Plan framed their approach as “winning the race” and has prioritised private sector-driven innovation to maintain and advance their technological lead. While initially reversing Biden-era bans on selling advanced chips to China, the Trump administration has started to pull back, signalling growing concern. If Trump and Xi announce a major chips deal, it will indicate both that President Trump does not see China as a threat and that China is still dependent on the US supply of advanced chips.

Tariffs and investment | President Xi was the most defiant of the Trump tariffs last year. The trade war quickly escalated with China retaliating with targeted tariffs and a ban on rare earths, hitting a key vulnerability for the United States. Tensions eventually de-escalated with both sides reaching a détente. On most of President Trump’s international trips, he has focused on making business deals to secure investment in the United States. The United States and China still have reciprocal tariffs of 47.5% and 31.9%, respectively. Watch to see if new deals are announced to address the core desires around technology and rare earths in exchange for reduced tariffs.

Fentanyl | The first tariffs Trump 2.0 imposed on China were in response to their production of fentanyl. A frequent talking point of the administration, fentanyl is an area where they can announce quick wins, without threatening central pillars of China’s policy.

Beyond formal announcements, what is left unsaid can be just as consequential. With a high degree of uncertainty going into the summit, analysts are watching closely for signs of a grand bargain, particularly around Taiwan or technology, that could define the next phase of US-China competition.

Lead image: Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese take a selfie during Takaichi's visit to Australia (Getty).

"I respect him a lot and hopefully he respects me."

President Trump speaking about the upcoming summit with President Xi Jinping | 11 May 2026

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US-China presidential engagement

On 14-15 May 2026, US President Donald Trump is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, marking the first US presidential visit to China in eight years. The last president to make the trip was Trump himself, during his first term in 2017. The summit is highly anticipated, following delays earlier this year due to the escalating conflict in Iran.  

At a time when the US-China relationship is increasingly defined by competition rather than engagement, this summit will be closely watched by the international community. Topics likely to be on the table include trade – specifically US tariffs and Chinese export controls on critical minerals – Taiwan, technology, the conflict in Iran, and a proposed joint “Board of Trade”.  

The need for stabilisation is clear as US-China leader-level exchanges have fallen, exchanges have fallen over the past three decades. According to analysis by the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, US-China leader-level exchanges – including bilateral summits, sideline meetings, and phone calls — have averaged just 2.5 per year this decade, down from 4.6 in the 2010s and 5.6 in the 2000s.

Simultaneously, the quality of engagement has weakened as approximately 75% of  leader interactions since 2020 have been conducted by phone rather than in person. This decline reflects a broader erosion of institutional ties.

As these leader-level meetings become less frequent, each carries strategic weight, ensuring that competition remains constrained to reduce the risk of escalating tensions in an increasingly unstable environment. This is particularly important ahead of Trump’s likely return to China for the APEC Summit in November of this year and Xi’s potential visit to the US in December for the G-20 Summit, where follow-through on any commitments will be closely scrutinised.

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