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26 April 2023
Biden launches campaign as DSR puts US-Australia relationship in the spotlight
President Joe Biden is running for re-election in 2024, potentially setting up a rematch of the 2020 election. Australia has strong feelings about a Biden v. Trump face off. United States Studies Centre (USSC) polling from late 2022 found 50 per cent of Australians would view another Trump presidency as either “bad” or “very bad” compared to 19 per cent for Biden. The outcome will undoubtedly shape the future of the US-Australia relationship in the region.
From Australia's end, the Defence Strategic Review, the most significant Australian defence policy document in nearly 40 years, reaffirms the strength, depth and necessity of the US alliance to Australia's future. While the review acknowledges that the United States is no longer the unipolar power in the Indo-Pacific, it asserts that its importance to Australia will only grow in the coming decades. Furthermore, as USSC CEO Dr Michael Green told ABC Radio, Australia’s positioning, clarity and high level of trust from the United States, “gives Australia some influence on the American debate.”
As the twists and turns of the election campaign reveal themselves, Australia will be watching closely to see how its strategic posture must adapt to a turbulent US political atmosphere, and what may come beyond election day 2024.
NEWS WRAP
Biden targets Trump in re-election bid
- Biden launches bid | President Joe Biden officially launched his bid for the presidency on Tuesday, four years to the day since he announced his 2020 candidacy. Opening with images of the 2021 Capitol riot, his announcement video put President Trump front and centre on the same day a civil trial for his likely opponent began in New York. READ MORE HERE
- Fox parts ways with Carlson | The week after settling a defamation case with Dominion Voting Systems, Fox News ousted Tucker Carlson — a decision reportedly made by Fox executives Lachlan Murdoch and Suzanne Scott. The lawsuit filing put Carlson and other Fox hosts under the spotlight as personal emails and text messages revealed sharp criticism of Fox and their handling of election fraud claims. READ MORE HERE
- Hitting the debt ceiling | Debate over the future of the US debt ceiling is intensifying as the prospect of a default inches closer. While Republicans are proposing huge spending cuts, some Democrats are urging President Biden to restart negotiations with Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. READ MORE HERE
- Floridians wake up early | An emergency 4.45am phone alert awoke millions of Floridians last week after it was mistakenly sent via mobile phones instead of television broadcast. The error prompted widespread criticism from sleep-deprived residents and from Governor Ron DeSantis, who condemned the mishap. READ MORE HERE
COMMENTARY
Clarity and consensus set strong security precedent
Dr Michael J. Green, Chief Executive Officer
The government’s new Defence Strategic Review has been rightly considered the greatest shift in Australian national security thinking since the Paul Dibb review in the 1980s. This time, however, the strategic environment is even more severe.
The Soviets had the intent to undermine the US-led regional order in the 1980s, but they did not have the means. China today has both. The only question is how much risk Beijing is willing to take connecting its means to its ends — and the evidence suggests Xi Jinping is willing to take a lot more risk than his predecessors. This is not a world in which Australia can protect its security and sovereignty through business as usual.
I have led similar strategic reviews myself in the US — in the White House and for the congress — and have been a student of other countries’ national strategies. This one ranks among the clearest I have seen anywhere in terms of defining the problem and then putting forward new concepts to defend the nation. When historians look back on this period, they will focus on Shinzo Abe’s 2013 National Security Strategy of Japan and the Albanese governments 2023 DSR as the bookends that defined how American allies prepared for a world of declining relative American power and unwelcomed Chinese hegemonic ambitions.
This article was first published in The Australian.
"Let's finish the job."
President Joe Biden's official campaign launch video | 25 April 2023
VIDEO
Technology, innovation & strategic competition
In March, USSC hosted a conversation exploring a range of technology issues facing Australia and the United States featuring The Hon Dr Andrew Leigh MP, Assistant Minister for Competition, Charities and Treasury and Dr Robert Atkinson, President of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) moderated by Dr Miah Hammond-Errey, USSC Emerging Technology Program Director.
Catch this and other recent events on the USSC YouTube channel!
BY THE NUMBERS
DSR identifies budget shortfall
Between the 2020 Defence Strategic Update and the Defence Strategic Review, $42b in defence spending was announced without additional funding in the Australian budget. The large majority of this spending relates to the establishment of the Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance (GWEO) Enterprise. The three measures listed all touch on areas important to the US-Australia alliance — intelligence, weapons and AUKUS.
As USSC experts Tom Corben and Sophie Mayo write in their report on the first of a series of defence industry roundtables, a wider range of voices will be needed in future discussions of Australian defence initiatives, particularly whole-of-nation enterprises such as AUKUS. These questions over Australia's strategic future will only become more important as the United States heads for a fateful 2024 election.
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Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006
