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3 August 2022
Biden's accidental victories negated by Pelosi's Taiwan visit
President Biden’s significant successes on hallmark congressional legislation and fighting terrorism were undeniably overshadowed this week by debate over House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's arrival in Taipei amid escalating US-China tensions.
The significant number of legislative victories seemed to even catch the Democrats by surprise. The Respect for Marriage Act passed the House and Senators Manchin (D-WV) and Schumer (D-NY) finally reached an agreement on a deal to address climate change, establish a minimum tax for corporations, and allow Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices. Even Congress finally passed the long-stalled bipartisan Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors for America Act (CHIPS) to boost US economic competitiveness.
The political wins, in addition to the announcement of the administration’s successful US drone-strike killing of the world’s most wanted terrorist, were proudly embraced by a president facing his lowest approval ratings since coming into office. However, the visit to Taiwan by the highest ranking official in a quarter century – initially scheduled to occur in April 2022 but delayed by the Speaker’s COVID diagnosis – was not. President Biden sought to distance himself from Pelosi’s decision by saying the US military advised against the trip to the democratic island.
Instead of enjoying a tailwind of apparent success, Americans are once again – near the one year anniversary of the failed Afghanistan withdrawal – forced to ask themselves if the latest foreign policy debate could have been avoided with better planning by the Biden administration.
NEWS WRAP
Allies deny nuclear weapon threat
- AUKUS partners strike back at China | Ahead of a United Nations nuclear non-proliferation conference in New York this week, China and Indonesia warned
against AUKUS’ transfer of nuclear technology. AUKUS allies hit back, saying it will be impossible for Australia to convert uranium fuelling the planned fleet of nuclear-powered submarines into weapons. READ MORE HERE
- China fumes over Pelosi visit | Beijing announced missile tests and military drills in zones surrounding Taiwan after US Speaker Nancy Pelosi arrived in Taipei, becoming the highest-ranking American official to visit in 25 years. Pelosi said her presence in Taiwan is an “unequivocal statement” that America stands with the democracy of 23 million people. READ MORE HERE.
- Primary elections ramp up | Tuesday's primaries are among the busiest in the 2022 midterm primaries with Arizona, Michigan, Missouri, Kansas and Washington holding elections. The Arizona GOP primary in particular will be a major test of former President Trump's influence over the Republican Party with special attention on his endorsed Senate candidate Blake Masters. READ MORE HERE
Inflation hike shows rates likely to keep climbing | US inflation continued to rise and average wages accelerated indicating that price increases are likely to continue. Last week’s figures underscore the cost-of-living threat facing the Democrats in Congress in the run-up to the midterms, with polling indicating Americans favour Republicans on economic management issues. READ MORE HERE
- US House passes gay marriage bill | A bill to protect gay marriage passed in the US House of Representatives after 47 Republicans voted in favour reflecting a stark shift in GOP positioning after decades of fighting same-sex marriage. Caught off-guard by the bipartisan support, Democrats in the Senate are likely to delay acting on the bill until September. READ MORE HERE
We must stand by Taiwan, which is an island of resilience. Taiwan is a leader in governance: currently, in addressing the COVID-19 pandemic and championing environmental conservation and climate action. It is a leader in peace, security and economic dynamism: with an entrepreneurial spirit, culture of innovation and technological prowess that are envies of the world.
Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, on her visit to Taiwan | 2 August, 2022
ANALYSIS
US efforts to strengthen collective defence won't come free for Asia
Tom Corben
Research Associate, United States Studies Centre
The participation of the ‘Asia Pacific 4’ — Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea — in the NATO Summit in Madrid in May has generated considerable debate about the benefits and shortcomings of strengthening links between America’s Asian and European allies.
What will frustrate many in Asia, however, is that the urgency evident in these new commitments to collective defence in Europe is yet to be mirrored in parallel efforts in the Indo-Pacific.
This is not a new phenomenon: when one looks at the distribution of US force posture and security assistance between global theatres over the last two decades, it is quite clear that Asia has repeatedly lost out to Europe and the Middle East — even as the balance of power in Asia has tilted rapidly in China’s favour.
Granted, the Biden administration has said all the right things about the Indo-Pacific being its “priority theater” and has proposed, or persisted with, a range of initiatives designed to get after different aspects of strategic competition in the region.
This article was first published in 9Dashline
LIVE EVENT
The crisis of American democracy - a discussion with Professor Stephen Macedo
The January 6 Select Committee hearings highlight points of crisis in American democracy, yet the roots of these challenges undeniably precede the Capitol riots given US economic, social and cultural trends. Princeton University professor and political scientist Stephen Macedo's authoritative work on immigration, liberalism, populism, and democratic theory explores such trends.
Please join us for an in-person event featuring Professor Macedo in conversation with USSC Director of Research, Jared Mondschein, and Director of Engagement and Impact, Mari Koeck.
WHEN
SYDNEY | Thursday, 18 August 2022 | 6pm-7pm AEST | The Michael Spence Building (F23), Corner of Eastern Ave and City Road, The University of Sydney, Camperdown NSW 2006.
COST
Free but registration is essential.
BY THE NUMBERS
US sitting days three times higher than Australian counterparts
Australian and US politicians often face criticism for the perception of the limited number of workdays spent in their respective capitals. The data shows Australian lawmakers sit far fewer days than their American counterparts.
In 2021, the US House of Representatives met for 160 days and plans to meet for 112 days in 2022 while the US Senate met for 158 days and is scheduled to meet for 171 days this year. Meanwhile in Australia, the House of Representatives sat for 67 days in 2021 and is scheduled to meet 41 days in 2022. The Australian Senate met for 52 days in 2021 and is scheduled to meet for 32 days this year. On average, this means US elected officials have three times as many sitting days as their Australian counterparts.
PODCAST
Legacy of Shinzo Abe
The United States Studies Centre is excited to be collaborating with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) to produce The Asia Chessboard, a podcast featuring in-depth conversations with the most prominent strategic thinkers on Asia.
In the first episode, co-hosts USSC CEO Dr Michael Green and CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies Jude Blanchette discuss the strategic and political legacy of Shinzo Abe, following the assassination of the former Japanese Prime Minister on July 8.
Catch more podcast and video analysis on the United States here.
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