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“Really good chance” of a deal after two years of war in Gaza
8 October 2025
On 7 October 2023, Hamas militants initiated a widespread attack in Gaza, killing roughly 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages. In the two years of fighting since then, there have been two short-lived ceasefires, Israeli forces have killed an estimated 67,000 Palestinians and Hamas has killed an additional 840 Israeli soldiers. The hostages have been an ongoing point of negotiations in both the ceasefires and in President Trump’s current peace plan.
Since the start of fighting, 148 hostages have been released or rescued, the bodies of 58 hostages have been returned or recovered, 20 hostages are still believed to be alive and 28 are confirmed or presumed to be dead. This week, the United States has brokered negotiations around the potential peace deal and Hamas has indicated they will agree to some of the points, particularly around the release of hostages.
President Trump is pushing hard to leverage any momentum to land this deal, which is also occurring the same week the Nobel Peace Prize will be announced (for which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nominated President Trump in July). Speaking to Axios about his phone call with Netanyahu, Trump said, “He’s got to be fine with it. He has no choice.” As for Hamas, he warned they face “complete obliteration” if they do not agree to the terms and relinquish power in Gaza. This week, both Netanyahu and Trump expressed signs of optimism about the plan and Trump said there was a “really good chance” of a peace deal resulting from these negotiations.
Whether an agreement can be reached remains to be seen, but these negotiations happen as the US government shutdown enters its second week, with little sign of progress. The latest funding proposals have failed and with no significant negotiations agreed, government agencies are settling in for the long haul. Polling is still slightly more positive for Democrats, but President Trump is confident Republicans are “winning” the budget battle.
In both Israel and Washington, the stakes are high for President Trump and his reputation as “dealmaker in chief.”
Mari Koeck
Director, Engagement and Impact
Lead photo: US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu deliver remarks during a joint news conference at the White House on 29 September 2025. (Getty)
"Literally every country in the world has supported the plan."
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Upcoming events
Weaponising words: Russia's global influence playbook
Russian disinformation and foreign influence campaigns have increasingly become defining features of today’s information landscape. Their reach extends beyond Ukraine, shaping debates around the globe, including in the United States, Southeast Asia and Australia. Please join us for expert remarks and a panel discussion featuring Ukrainian Ambassador to Australia Vasyl Myroshnychenko, ex-career diplomat and strategic communications specialist Natalia Solieva, and University of Sydney Senior Lecturer in Digital Cultures Dr Olga Boichak. This discussion will be moderated by USSC Director of Strategic Technologies, Olivia Shen.
16 October 2025
6.00-7.30pmThe Michael Spence Building (F23) at the Corner of Eastern Avenue and City Road, The University of Sydney NSW 2006
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United States Studies Centre
Institute Building (H03)
University of Sydney NSW 2006