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16 November 2022
Xi meets world
Summit season 2022 is delivering a diplomacy treasure trove as Chinese President Xi Jinping held separate one-on-one sideline meetings with both US President Joe Biden and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for the first time since each took office. After his meeting, Biden said they were “very blunt with one another,” but, as United States Studies Centre (USSC) CEO Dr Michael Green told ABC, having a meeting at all represents a thaw in US-China relations.
For Australia, the head of State tête-à-tête was even more significant, as it was the first time the Chinese President has met with an Australian Prime Minister in six years. Albanese described the discussion as “very constructive”, which aligned with comments from Xi through the Chinese media outlet Xinhua.
USSC Research Associate Alice Nason wrote in a paper on US-Asian diplomacy, “By consistently attending annual summits at the right level, conducting sidelines outreach, and elevating advantageous minilateral groupings, the Biden administration has reintroduced stability to US regional multilateralism.” As these high-profile and productive sidelines have shown, in-person meetings make a difference.
NEWS WRAP
Trump officially announces 2024 run
Trump takes on 2024 | In a heavily foreshadowed announcement, former President Donald Trump announced his candidacy for president in 2024 at Mar-a-Lago. In a speech harkening back to his 2015 announcement, he emphasised illegal drugs crossing the US border and described American cities as “cesspools of violent crime.” After the weak GOP performance in the midterms, his candidacy will test Republican resolve to return to Trump or pivot to a new face like Ron DeSantis. READ MORE HERE
Biden says missiles in Poland "unlikely" from Russia | Poland convened emergency meeting with NATO allies following the death of two people in an explosion in Poland. While initial reports alleged the missiles came from Russia, President Biden has since spoken out saying this was "unlikely" based on the trajectory. READ MORE HERE
GOP recalibrating after midterms fizzle | Republicans voted to return Rep. Kevin McCarthy to the party leadership in the House following the midterms, but they have yet to secure an official majority; a slim majority hampers his chances of claiming the Speaker’s gavel. After the Democrats maintained their control of the Senate, Sen. Rick Scott is challenging Sen. Mitch McConnell to be minority leader in the Senate. READ MORE HERE
Biden and Xi boost COP27 | In his address to COP27, President Biden said world leaders “can no longer plead ignorance,” and that tangible outcomes from the summit have not met expectations. It s hoped that Biden and Chinese President Xi’s announcement of cooperation on climate change can kick-start COP27 progress in the home stretch of the two-week summit. READ MORE HERE
American votes on abortion ballot measures | Abortion measures were on the midterms ballot in Michigan, Kentucky, Montana, California and Vermont, and all voted to protect abortion rights. Following the Supreme Court’s decision to turn abortion issues over to the states, these results at the ballot box show states are consistently choosing to uphold abortion rights. READ MORE HERE
HYBRID EVENT
A US-Australian agenda for climate change after the midterms
The midterm elections are expected to see President Biden’s Democratic party lose control of the House of Representatives while experts expect minimal progress at this month’s international climate negotiations (COP27) in Egypt.
What sort of collaboration on climate change can we expect from the United States and Australia for the next two years and beyond? Can the alliance pivot to work on climate policy that touches on industrial policy and economic development? Should Australia be as concerned about the recent US climate legislation as the Europeans are?
To discuss these issues please join USSC for an event featuring Meg McDonald, a former senior diplomat now a board member of the NSW Net Zero Emissions and Clean Economy Board, the Foreign Investment Review Board and Environment Commissioner, Greater Cities Commission and Lachlan Carey, a former Australian Treasury official and senior associate at the Colorado-based RMI, where he leads work on US regional economic development through clean energy investment for a conversation with USSC CEO Dr Michael Green.
WHEN
SYDNEY | Thursday, 17 November, 6.00 pm - 7.30 pm AEDT
LOCATION
Auditorium, The Michael Spence Building (F23), Corner of Eastern Avenue and City Road, The University of Sydney, Camperdown NSW 2006
COST
Free, but registration is essential
ANALYSIS
America’s optimistic youth emerge as the Democrats’ great hope – and the nation’s
Victoria Cooper, Research Associate, United States Studies Centre
Lauded by Democrats as the party’s heroes in these elections and even prompting a special thank you from President Joe Biden, about 60 per cent of those aged under 30 voted for Democrat candidates.
This is not a new phenomenon. Youth turnout was essential to Democrats’ reclamation of the House in the 2018 midterms with a whopping 72 per cent of those aged 18 to 29 voting for Democrats. Biden also pulled 54 per cent of votes from this demographic in the 2020 presidential election. In fact, Democrats have won support among younger voters by wide margins in every US federal election since 2004.
Younger Americans not only represent a promising future for the Democrats’ political successes, but for the country’s political processes more broadly. According to exit polls, the level of turnout among voters under 30 was the second highest in 30 years, and at about 30 per cent of the total eligible youth population, it well exceeds the historical 20 to 25 per cent proportional turnout for federal elections from young voters.
Despite the precedent of 2018, the enthusiasm of America’s youth surprised many. Pundits warned ahead of election day that America’s youth were politically disengaged and showing serious apathy about casting a vote.
So what did we miss? Youthful optimism.
This is an excerpt from America’s optimistic youth emerge as the Democrats’ great hope – and the nation’s, first published in The Sydney Morning Herald on 16 November, 2022.
As the leaders of our two nations, we share a responsibility, in my view, to show that China and the United States can manage our differences, prevent competition from becoming anything ever near conflict, and to find ways to work together on urgent global issues that require our mutual cooperation.
Remarks by President Biden on meeting President Xi Jinping | 12 November, 2022
BY THE NUMBERS
Negative views of China have solidified
USSC polling in 2021 showed a dramatic increase in negative sentiments towards China among American respondents and our 2022 polling shows that negative view persists. Rising from 25 per cent in July 2019 to 36 per cent in December 2021, the same number (36 per cent) of Americans continue to describe China as an enemy. Where US political polarisation is severe, attitudes toward China are conspicuously aligned. Seventy-one per cent of Trump voters and 73 per cent of Biden voters share the view that China is either an enemy or unfriendly.
Levels of concern about China are remarkably similar across the United States, Australia and Japan, with 52 to 55 per cent of the three nations saying China is more harmful than helpful in Asia. At the same time, however, the level of optimism about China was highest in Australia, with 20 per cent of Australians, 13 per cent of Americans and only 10 per cent of Japanese respondents saying China was more helpful in Asia.
In light of this, when it comes to the US handling of China, the consensus across the three countries shows little support for a weakened posture.
This is an excerpt from US midterms 2022: The stakes for Australia and the alliance by Director of Research Jared Mondschein and Research Associate Victoria Cooper
VIDEO
Danger Zone: The coming conflict with China with author Hal Brands
If the rest of the 21st century will be defined by strategic competition, Professor Hal Brands posits the 2020s will be the most intense and definitive decade.
USSC hosted an event featuring Professor Hal Brands, author of Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China in conversation with USSC's Senior Lecturer in US Politics and Foreign Policy Dr Gorana Grgic.
Catch more podcast and video analysis on the United States here.
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Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006
