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Five years on, AUKUS support remains, but understanding is slipping
16 September 2026
Five years ago, all but a small group of insiders in DC, Canberra and London were surprised by the announcement of AUKUS, one of the biggest defence announcements in Australian history. USSC has been closely analysing all things AUKUS since the initial announcement starting with this explainer, published on 16 September 2021 (we had an internal debate at the time over whether it should be spelled AUKUS or AUUKUS), through the Optimal Pathway announcement and continuing this week.
USSC has included AUKUS questions in every poll since the announcement, and a few key themes have emerged:
- Support for AUKUS continuously outweighs opposition.
- There has been a persistent gender gap with men more supportive of AUKUS than women.
- There used to be an age divide with AUKUS support increasing with age; however, this has now levelled out, with support rising fastest in Australians under 35 (see more on this in the By the numbers article below).
- Despite more support than opposition for AUKUS, only 23% of Australians agree the government has properly explained the rationale for AUKUS – a drop from 27% last year.
All three countries have changed government since AUKUS was first announced and it has been reviewed by the US and UK governments, with continued trilateral support. As USSC Senior Defence Strategy Adviser Prof. Peter Dean said on our recent USSC Briefing Room episode:
“If you gave a map of Australia to any admiral in the world and asked them to design a modern navy for Australia…the first thing any admiral would do was write at the top of that piece of paper, 'nuclear-powered submarines.'”
Five years into a plan expected to last five decades, public support has remained relatively stable, however, the fact that the number of Australians who understand the government case for AUKUS is dropping signals a messaging gap. The governments are on board, people are broadly on board, and it hasn’t become a political football. However, short of a crisis in this region, if the government does not secure buy in for AUKUS, long term trust may erode. Ultimately, more information and messaging from government may be one of the most significant actions that could shape the long-term trajectory of AUKUS.
Mari Koeck
Director of Engagement and Impact
Lead image: President Joe Biden announces AUKUS from the White House on 15 September 2021, joined virtually by Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
(Photo by Kent Nishimura via Getty Images)
"AUKUS represents a generational investment in Australia's security, workforce and industrial capability."
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PODCASTUSSC Briefing Room | AUKUS at five: Full steam ahead?With Prof. Peter Dean, Dr Zack Cooper and Mari Koeck |
COMMENTARYWhat has AUKUS Pillar II achieved over five years?By Kester Abbott and Tara Luckock |
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By the numbers
The age gap on AUKUS submarines is narrowing
Two years ago, USSC described AUKUS as a "case study in generational politics". At the time, younger Australians were far less likely than older Australians to support nuclear-powered submarines, raising questions about the long-term public and workforce support for a project designed to stretch across decades. The latest polling suggests that divide is becoming much less pronounced.
At the national level, remarkably little appears to have changed. Support for nuclear-powered submarines has hovered around half of Australians since 2023, moving from 49.6% to 47.9% over four surveys. But beneath that steady headline, the age profile of support has shifted substantially.
In 2023, support among Australians aged 65 and over exceeded support among 18–34-year-olds by 28.6 percentage points. By 2026, that gap had narrowed to under 10 points, becoming considerably less distinct.
The change has come from both directions. Support among Australians under 35 rose from 33.6% in 2023 to 46.3% in 2026, increasing in each successive survey. Older Australians remain the most supportive group, but their backing has softened from its 2024 peak. Meanwhile, the 2026 estimates for Australians aged 18–34 and those aged 35–64 are now almost level.
This is an excerpt of By the numbers | The age gap on AUKUS submarines is narrowing by USSC intern Abdulrahman Ababneh.
Abdulrahman Ababneh
USSC Intern
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Almost all advanced technology today depends on critical minerals. Rare earths, in particular, are necessary for a range of applications, including powering electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, industrial motors, and defence systems. Yet the supply chain behind them is highly concentrated. China accounts for over 90% of the world’s rare earth refining and permanent magnet production, leaving the global economy exposed to a single point of failure.
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To answer these questions, please join us for a discussion with Dr Naoise McDonagh, MBA Director and Senior Lecturer in Geopolitics and International Business at the School of Business and Law at Edith Cowan University, and author of the upcoming report The Missing Market: Why US and allies’ rare earth derisking needs a demand-side strategy. Dr McDonagh is joined by Genna Lehman, USSC Non-Resident Fellow in Economic Security and Sir Roland Wilson Pat Turner Scholar, and moderated by USSC Director of Economic Security, Hayley Channer.
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30 September 2026
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WHERE
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SISF agenda announced
The agenda for the 2026 Sydney International Strategy Forum has now been announced. To explore the theme of "Alliances in an age of disorder," topics of discussion for the day include:
- America debates the world
- Are adversaries gaining the initiative?
- Are alliances and partnerships holding?
- Are we ready for the big shocks?
- DEBATE | The Alliance at 75: Does Australia need a plan B?
- Does Australia have the right strategic settings to lead in this new era?
View the full agenda and list of speakers on our website.
DATE AND TIME
23 September 2026
8.00am–5.00pm AEST
WHERE
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