No images? Click here 20 OctoberThe paralysing politics of climate changeIn July 2019, survey research by the United States Studies Centre (USSC) found clear majorities of Americans and Australians assessing that not only is climate change occurring but that it is driven by human activity at least as much as natural processes – a belief reported by 69 per cent of Americans and 75 per cent of Australians. Almost identical proportions in both countries go on to say they would support plans to reduce fossil fuel use, dropping to 54 per cent in the United States and 65 per cent in Australia if taxes on emissions are part of the plan. Despite majorities in both countries in favour of action to reduce emissions, the politics of energy and climate are at best delicate, at worst paralysing. In both the United States and Australia, the problem is for parties of government to put together legislative majorities in support of policies lowering emissions. For President Biden and Congressional Democrats, there are simply no votes to lose in a US Senate split 50-50. Joe Manchin, Democratic Senator from West Virginia — a state that split 69-30 for Trump in 2020 — is the pivotal vote on climate and energy policy. His opposition has thus far led Democrats to drop most of the climate and energy-facing provisions of Biden’s expansive infrastructure plan. Democrats are scrambling to find a “Plan C”, which frankly, will be whatever Manchin wants it to be. A centre-right government in Australia faces its own "coalition management" challenge with the right-flank of the governing coalition the potential veto players. Cabinet solidarity and parliamentary government will see the politics of climate play out differently in Canberra than in Washington. Nonetheless, both countries are having their own political science textbook moments, demonstrating a telling lesson in the ways a representative government often limits the translation of majority opinion into policy. The next moves in both countries are also likely to be strikingly similar, as veto players extract concessions for their support of proposals edging both countries towards net-zero emissions targets. Simon Jackman NEWS WRAPDigging in heels
Leadership is solving problems. The day soldiers stop bringing you their problems is the day you have stopped leading them. WEBINAR | 21 OctoberBiden's Indo-Pacific strategy: The state of playThe Indo-Pacific is the new global centre of strategic rivalry. President Biden has sought to shore up alliances in the region and ease strained relationships caused by his predecessor. Even so, questions remain, especially about the ability of the United States to compete effectively in Southeast Asia and to craft an economic strategy for the region following its 2017 withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement. Join us in the leadup to the region’s “summit season” to discuss these issues with Richard Maude, Executive Director of Policy at Asia Society Australia, Ashley Townshend, Director of Foreign Policy and Defence at the United States Studies Centre, Susannah Patton, Research Fellow in the Foreign Policy and Defence Program at the United States Studies Centre, and Elina Noor, Director of Political-Security Affairs and Deputy Director, Washington DC Office at the Asia Society Policy Institute. This event will be moderated by Emma Connors, South-east Asia correspondent for the Australian Financial Review. WHEN: You can also subscribe to have event invitations and reminders sent straight to your inbox, so you never have to miss an event! ANALYSISContempt for Congress and the Supreme Court threatens a crisis in governanceBruce Wolpe In his first press conference as president back in March, Joe Biden said “We have to prove democracy works” by proving that the institutions of government work. This week, two branches of the government of the United States face clear and present dangers – actions of contempt – that threaten the rule of law in the United States. WILL CONGRESS BE DENIED OVERSIGHT OF THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH?The House of Representatives this week will begin the process of seeking criminal prosecution of Stephen Bannon, a former counselor to President Trump who continued to serve as an unofficial advisor in the last years of Trump’s term. Bannon was with President Trump and in conversations with him in the days leading up to the deadly insurrection on January 6, the ultimate purpose of which was to stop Congress’ certification of the November 2020 presidential election and thereby prevent the peaceful transfer of power to the election’s winner, Joe Biden. The insurrection failed. The House of Representatives established a bipartisan Select Committee to investigate all aspects of those events: what happened, who was responsible, what plans were in place to protect the Capitol, what was the chain of command and steps taken to send forces to put down the violence and clear the Capitol. The Select Committee also wants to know what the president did that day, who he talked with and what was said, what decisions were made and what his intentions were. Bannon’s testimony is crucial to understanding the events of that day and what Trump did. Bannon is refusing to testify, citing orders from Trump that he not cooperate, with Trump citing “executive privilege”: the ability of a sitting president to shield officials and documents from investigation in order to prevent superfluous litigation from overly burdening a president’s already full agenda. However, the United States has but one president at a time. The only president who can assert executive privilege is the one in the Oval Office. And President Biden has waived any assertion of executive privilege for the purposes of the Select Committee’s work. Bannon is happy to talk to the media – and to authors of books about Trump – and is free to give them his account of what he knows of what Trump was doing to overturn the election. But he will not comply with a subpoena from the House committee to give evidence. The Select Committee will find Bannon in contempt for refusing to testify. The House will vote a resolution seeking action by the Justice Department to enforce the Committee’s subpoenas to Bannon through a criminal prosecution for his contempt. BY THE NUMBERSSchool's out Sarah Hamilton As New South Wales and Victorian pupils return to school after months of home learning, American children have faced some of the longest school closures globally since pandemic-related closures began in March 2020. This varies significantly between each state: all California schools were closed for 353 days with another 151 days where some schools were required to be closed; Maine, on the other hand, had just 158 days with all schools closed and 25 days with some school closures. THE ALLIANCE AT 70 | The evolution of the AllianceInnovative nations The following is an excerpt from The Alliance at 70, a contribution by John Berry, US Ambassador to Australia (2013-16) and President of the American Australian Association (2016-) The anvil of the Second World War forged an entirely new and unbreakable bond between Australia and the United States made manifest in the ANZUS Treaty 70 years ago. That still holds true today. This Treaty and bond ‘strengthen the fabric of peace’ in the Pacific for all and ensure each of our nations need never stand alone against any aggressor. It cements our deepest values: freedom, human rights and the rule of law as a bulwark against the storms of time. My father learned of this bond under fire with his Australian mates during the battles of Guadalcanal and the terrible progress up the Indonesian island chain. His unit, the First Division of the US Marine Corps, still honours this bond with their fight song ‘Waltzing Matilda’ to this very day. I learned of it at his knee and during my service as the US Ambassador to Australia. As someone who lives only two blocks away from the World Trade Center Memorial in New York City, I regularly say a prayer for the Americans and Australians killed during that attack on September 11 with a profound thanks for the fearless leadership of former Prime Minister John Howard, who formally invoked the ANZUS Treaty on that terrible day. That single exercise of our Treaty will never be forgotten. Happily, the Treaty has accomplished far more than the important defence described above. It has fostered economic development that is fast approaching US$2 trillion between our innovative nations. It has deepened respect for our Indigenous people and embraced cultural and artistic exchanges that have enriched the whole world. We have helped develop leaders for the future through scholarly exchanges between our nations and joint medical research to advance human health around the globe. Together we continue to explore beyond the lands we live, to the Moon, Mars and beyond. VIDEOIntegrated deterrence in the Indo-PacificDid you miss last week's webinar? The United States Studies Centre and Pacific Forum hosted the launch of “Integrated deterrence in the Indo-Pacific: Advancing the Australia-United States alliance", a new policy brief by Jane Hardy, Visiting Senior Fellow with the USSC and a former Australian Consul-General in Hawaii. Joining her for this in-conversation webinar was Ashley Townshend, Director of Foreign Policy and Defence at USSC, and David Santoro, President of Pacific Forum, both founding convenors and co-chairs of the Track 1.5 US-Australia Indo-Pacific Deterrence Dialogue. Manage your email preferences | Forward this email to a friend United States Studies Centre |