Emerging themes from SISF 2025

17 September 2025

This morning, we kicked of Sydney International Strategy Forum 2025: Navigating disruption. Across the course of the morning we heard from leading experts from across the Indo-Pacific on three key questions: “America abroad, America at home: how much has changed?”, “Is China winning in the Indo-Pacific?” and “Are US alliances fit for purpose?”

America at home, America abroad: how much has changed?
Former US Deputy Secretary of State Dr Kurt Campbell highlighted the significance of a potential meeting between Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and President Donald Trump, saying, "I think it’s probably the most consequential meeting between an American and an Australian in living memory." He also spoke about heightened alarm in Washington at the moment, noting, "The animating worry in Washington right now is the idea of a 1941 bolt from the blue that China would do, without notice, across the Taiwan Strait."

In a panel discussion with former Special Advisor to the President and Senior Director for East Asia and Oceania Dr Mira Rapp-Hooper, Director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security Lisa Curtis, Senior Fellow and Director of Foreign and Defence Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute Dr Kori Schake and Executive Vice President for Research and Policy at the Institute of International Finance Clay Lowery, USSC Director of Research Jared Mondschein led the group in examining the state of play in the United States under Trump 2.0

Dr Rapp-Hooper noted, "What we have seen in the second Trump administration is the rapid administration of changes to systems and policies when it didn’t need to be that way."

Lisa Curtis also highlighted the impact of the cuts to foreign aid, "We are doing tremendous damage to ourselves when we cut US foreign aid so drastically. It’s the lowest level of foreign aid in nearly 80 years. This is going to have an impact. It’s going to impact US global power and influence and our ability to deter China."

Is China winning in the Indo-Pacific?
Avril Haines, former Director of National Intelligence joined via video link and noted, "It’s absolutely fundamental to work with allies and partners...we have to be extremely diligent in pushing back against the aggression."

This was followed by a lively discussion featuring former Commandant of the US Marine Corps General David Berger (Ret’d), former Permanent Secretary with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Singapore Bilahari Kausikan, Executive Director of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation Prof. Nobukatsu Kanehara and Dr Rapp-Hooper in conversation with Foreign Affairs and National Security Correspondent for the Sydney Morning Herald Matthew Knott to look at the power balance in the Indo-Pacific from a range of perspectives.

General Berger (Ret'd) framed the situation from a military perspective, saying, "From a purely military perspective, for context, I think it’s important for us to remember that both sides are moving, it’s not static. Both sides are also making adjustments, learning. So, it’s another dynamic. We’re trying to preserve something. They’re trying to fracture it."

Bilahari Kausikan broadened the perspective and commented that, "I think there is a bigger point. You are going to see the US and China is the central axis, but it’s not the only axis. They are not the only two powers that matter."

Are US alliances fit for purpose? AUKUS, the Quad, and the future of security cooperation
This led in well to a conversation with USSC Director of Foreign Policy and Defence Dr Lavina Lee, USSC Senior Adviser for Defence Strategy Prof. Peter Dean and Lisa Curtis with Chief International Correspondent for The Australian Cameron Stewart. They discussed the AUKUS review, the future of the Quad and gave a prognosis for US alliances.

Speaking about reported US demands for clarity around Australia’s role in a Taiwan contingency, Prof. Peter Dean said, "They can’t give an answer to the same questions that they’re asking."

Dr Lavina Lee looked at the Quad and said that, in spite of recent tensions between the United States and India, she did see a pathway forward and even said, "I think its time for the Quad to consider including closer defence cooperation."

The day is still going strong. In the afternoon, we are set to discuss:

• Navigating disruption in trade and finance
• Leading on economic security: AI and critical minerals
• Can allies shape US strategy?

If you missed out on the forum this year, stay tuned to our YouTube channel where we will publish the recordings and subscribe to our research alerts so you will receive a link to the conference outcomes report when it is published.

Lead photo: Former US Deputy Secretary of State, Dr Kurt Campbell speaks with USSC CEO Dr Michael Green at the 2025 Sydney International Strategy Forum, 17 September 2025. 

"Australia really is the leading middle power globally and the country with more impact and influence on the United States than any other power."

Dr Kurt Campbell at Sydney International Strategy Forum 2025  |  17 September 2025

Recent content from us

In the news

By the numbers

Kirk assassination the latest in series of politically motivated attacks

Source: CSIS | The Rising Threat of Anti-Government Domestic Terrorism: What the Data Tells Us

Last year, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a brief analysing trends in anti-government domestic terrorism in the United States. Their research showed that, while there were peaks and troughs in the number of domestic terrorist attacks and plots over the 30-year period from 1994-2023, there was a significant uptick in politically motivated attacks from 2016-2023. This data does not include the assassination attempts on President Trump in 2024, the killing of the Minnesota state legislator and her husband in June this year or the recent killing of right-wing activist Charlie Kirk, all of which show a continued trend in increasing political violence.

From 1994-2015, the researchers found the overarching motivation in political attacks was general anti-government sentiment. But from 2016 onwards there has been a significant shift towards partisan motivation, largely driven by online conspiracy theories.

Authorities are still investigating the motive for Tyler Robinson, Charlie Kirk’s suspected killer. Utah Governor Spencer Cox has said that Robinson had a “leftist ideology” and also noted Robinson’s involvement in “deep, dark internet, the Reddit culture.” The messages on the bullet casings have prompted speculation about their meanings from meme and game culture, with some pointing to potential online extremist meanings. The clearest indication about motive so far came in text messages shared in court documents filed on Tuesday, where Robinson said, "I had enough of this hatred" in response to the question about why he shot Kirk.

While the motivation behind Robinson’s actions is unclear, Kirk’s assassination has driven an even larger wedge between the political parties in the United States. President Trump has blamed the “radical left group of lunatics” while a moment of silence in the House of Representatives for Charlie Kirk devolved into a shouting match between Republicans and Democrats. Legislators like Senator Bernie Sanders have called for an end to political violence and exhorted people to “welcome and respect dissenting points of view.” However, until something major changes on the national stage, it does not look like there will be a shift away from the politically motivated attacks in the United States.

Manage your email preferences  |  Forward this email to a friend

United States Studies Centre
Institute Building (H03)
University of Sydney NSW 2006

​www.ussc.edu.au  |  us-studies@sydney.edu.au