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28 February 2024

Biden's re-election stakes made clear in Michigan

By Victoria Cooper, Research Editor 

Michigan will be a critical battleground in the 2024 presidential election, and as Americans hit the primary polls today, the stakes for President Biden were made  abundantly clear.

Donald Trump’s path to the Republican nomination and a second shot at winning Michigan in 2024 is increasingly smooth after the former president wrapped up the majority of the delegates available in today’s primary and beat Nikki Haley in her home state of South Carolina with 60 per cent of the primary vote over the weekend.

A Trump v. Biden match up might seem reassuring for Democrats. Democrats had an unbroken six-election streak of winning Michigan until Trump’s shocking and marginal (0.23 per cent, approximately 11,000 votes) win in 2016, and had promising results in both the 2020 presidential election and the 2022 midterms. But, past performance is not a great indicator of future results. Biden’s Michigan victory over Trump in 2020 (by about 150,000 votes) paled in comparison to pre-election polling expectations and the Democrats’ previously safe wins in the state between 1992 and 2016.

The president might have safely won today’s primary but a surge of “uncommitted” votes, spurred on by a grassroots campaign from Michigan’s Arab Americans and 30 elected state leaders protesting the president’s handling of the war in Gaza, presented a warning for President Biden: a handful of voters in Michigan, including some of the 145,000 Michigan Muslims who voted in 2020, are enough to disrupt the course for Biden’s re-election hopes.

With so much at stake, understanding the latest developments has never been more important. Join us for a deeper dive into the Super Tuesday contest and what could be President Biden’s final State of the Union address next week, at a live panel discussion with our special guest from popular ABC television program Planet America, Chas Licciardello, on Friday 8 March, 6-7.30pm.

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NEWS WRAP

Cautious optimism for Gaza ceasefire 

  • Biden’s hopes for Gaza | President Biden has expressed cautious optimism about the possibility for a ceasefire in Gaza by next week. Negotiations in Paris among US, Israeli, Qatari and Egyptian officials indicate progress toward a ceasefire before Ramadan on 10 March, but Israeli and Hamas officials have downplayed Biden’s hope for an imminent ceasefire. READ MORE HERE  
     

  • Friday funds-day | Funding for several US government programs will dry up beginning Friday 1 March if the remaining four appropriations bills are not finalised. Spending talks have continued to break down in Congress, with Democrat leaders urging their Republican counterparts to reach a compromise that will avoid the looming partial government shutdown. READ MORE HERE  
     

  • Frozen embryos in legal limbo | A ruling in the Alabama Supreme Court last week determined frozen embryos should fall under the legal equivalent of children. The ruling has implications for the protection of frozen in-vitro fertilisation (IVF) access, as Alabama state lawmakers and the White House seek to pass legislation that might protect access to infertility treatments. READ MORE HERE 
     

  • Sweden welcomed to NATO | After 18 months of stalling, Hungary’s parliament voted to approve Sweden’s accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). The timing coincides with the two-year anniversary of Russia’s illegal invasion in Ukraine and comes after Finland’s successful bid in April last year. READ MORE HERE   

 

"My national security advisor tells me that we're close, we're close, we're not done yet. My hope is by next Monday we'll have a ceasefire."

President Joe Biden in NBC Interview | 27 February 2024  

 

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Did you USSC?

  • EVENT | Election Watch 2024: Super Week with Planet America's Chas Licciardello​
    Join us for a live panel discussion with special guest from ABC's Planet America Chas Licciardello and USSC experts as we break down the latest developments from next week's Super Tuesday contest and what could be Biden's final State of the Union address. MORE INFORMATION HERE
  • PODCAST | USSC Briefing Room |  Four Quad think tank experts walk into the briefing room…
    Research Editor Victoria Cooper discusses the latest developments and questions about Quad cooperation between Australia, Japan, India and the United States with think tank experts from the four countries. LISTEN TO THE EPISODE
     
  • COMMENTARY | Has Donald Trump peaked? Let’s take a closer look at his numbers
    USSC Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe weighs in on Trump's chances at beating Nikki Haley and then Biden in The Sydney Morning Herald, writing that both Biden and Trump cannot win as they are right now. READ MORE HERE
     
  • EXPLAINER | A guide to the 2024 presidential election: from primaries to president
    The Politics, Society and Culture team provide an overview of the US election and impacts of the Trump trials, conventions and swing states. READ MORE HERE
 

BY THE NUMBERS

Ukraine aid by the numbers: Australia and the United States compared 

By Georgia Edmonstone, Research Associate, Economic Security

On 13 February, the US Senate passed a US$95 billion foreign aid package which included US$60 billion in aid for Ukraine. The United States has provided ongoing military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion in February 2022. However, this particular aid package and several others have stalled in the Republican-controlled House, part of a broader trend among Republicans reconsidering providing aid to Ukraine. Last week, Australia committed a further A$50 million in military aid to Ukraine with much less fanfare.

Both Australia and the United States have provided military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. According to the Kiel Institute, the United States has been the single largest supplier of military aid, contributing A$70 billion since 2022, while Australia has donated A$800 million. However, as a proportion of GDP, Estonia, Denmark and Lithuania have contributed the most, with the United States ranking 16th and Australia 24th for their contributions. 

READ MORE HERE
 

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The United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney is a university-based research centre, dedicated to the rigorous analysis of American foreign policy, economic security, emerging technology, politics, society and culture. The Centre is a national resource, that builds awareness of the dynamics shaping America , their implications for Australia – and critically – solutions for the Alliance.


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