26 February 2025

As the third anniversary of the war in Ukraine was commemorated this week, the United States continued its tumultuous path toward negotiations, breaking from its stance since the war began and in opposition to its European allies and partners. After President Trump called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator” and blamed him for causing the war in Ukraine, the United States joined with Russia, North Korea and Israel in voting against a UN resolution calling for a “just and lasting peace in Ukraine.” Later, a US resolution was passed by the UN Security Council calling for peace, but without mentioning Russia.

French President Emmanuel Macron met with President Trump at the White House to discuss Ukraine and the focus was largely on both European and US support for Ukraine to date and how (and whether) they may recoup that money. Macron even interrupted Trump to correct him for calling European support a “loan.”

Most of the public engagement between Trump and Zelenskyy has been over a critical minerals deal, which President Trump says will compensate the United States for the billions of dollars it has provided Ukraine in military, financial and humanitarian aid. After initially rejecting the deal, White House and Ukrainian sources now say that Zelenskyy is willing to accept a deal and is flying to Washington later this week to negotiate.

Much like DOGE’s maximalist cost-cutting measures across the bureaucracy with a ‘do now, ask for forgiveness later’ approach, the Trump administration’s volatile approach to Ukraine is energising parties on all sides of the conflict to engage and negotiate.

Mari Koeck
Director, Engagement and Impact

Image: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

"The cost and burden of securing the peace must be borne by the nations of Europe, not alone by the United States."

President Trump in a press conference with President Macron | 24 FEBRUARY 2025

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By the numbers

Military, financial and humanitarian aid for Ukraine
As percentage of 2021 GDP

Source: Kiel Institute for the World Economy

As President Trump discusses the end of the war in Ukraine with European allies, a recurring theme in his messaging is that Europe is not doing enough. The United States has allocated more than any other country to supporting Ukraine through military (US$69 billion), financial (US$50 billion) and humanitarian (US$3.7 billion) aid. However, as a share of GDP, the United States ranks 12^th for total bilateral allocations to support Ukraine. Allocations are the funds countries have either disbursed or committed to spend in their budgets.

As Dr Gorana Grgic pointed out in the USSC Briefing Room episode on the war in Ukraine, analysis by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy shows that Europe is now spending more than the United States on aid for Ukraine(€132.3 billion vs €114.2 billion). If you include committed spending (spending that is pledged, but not yet disbursed or allocated in a country’s budget), European spending is more than double US spending (€247.4 billion vs €119.04 billion).

In January, then President-elect Trump said European countries should boost defence spending to 5% of their GDP and US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth reiterated this in his speech at the Ukraine Defense Contract Group on 12 February. European countries are responding to this with talks about new targets for defence spending. The amount of money allocated towards supporting Ukraine ranges from 0.01% to 2.2% of GDP for the 31 European countries who have contributed. If this money was instead allocated to their defence spending, they would be significantly closer to reaching a 5% target.

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