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23 February

Reinvigorating allied responses beyond Europe

Russia’s unlawful encroachments into Ukraine dominate the news this week, along with the televised spectacle of President Putin browbeating Russia’s security and political leadership into publicly endorsing his plans. If there was any doubt as to what an alternative to the rules-based, liberal international order looks like, look no further.

A question we’re asking at the US Studies Centre is what the Western alliance’s response to the Ukraine crisis means for the Indo-Pacific.

Despite decades of regional defensive collaboration and deep familiarity with the challenge Russia poses, it remains difficult for NATO allies to form a unified response to Russian aggression. How, then, might more nascent formations like the Quad or the network of bilateral alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific react to a contingency?

The closest hypothetical analogy of most direct relevance for the United States and its Indo-Pacific allies would be an attempted annexation of Taiwan by the People’s Republic of China. But in this scenario, there is no NATO and no decades-long history of regional, multilateral defensive collaboration. Only recently has the United States and its Indo-Pacific allies and partners expanded joint military exercises. And only recently has the challenge Xi Jinping’s China poses become more widely familiar.

Rebuilding NATO's collective Cold War muscle memory is very much a work in progress. But an even less developed alliance network in the Indo-Pacific highlights the urgent need to build institutions and working relationships beyond Europe.

Sincerely,
Prof Simon Jackman
CEO, United States Studies Centre

 

NEWS WRAP

Justice for Ahmaud

  • Vigilantes brought to justice | The three men who fatally shot unarmed black man, Ahmaud Arbery, in February 2020 were found guilty of committing federal hate crimes and violating civil rights, with a jury finding their pursuit of Arbery to be inspired by racial hate. Convicted of murder in November 2021, the men now each face additional life sentences. Meanwhile, ex-police officer Kim Potter who killed black teenager Daunte Wright in April 2021 after allegedly mistaking her taser for her gun was sentenced to two years in prison. READ MORE HERE
     

  • Up and up | US inflation climbed to 7.5 per cent (a forty-year high) with the consumer price index rising 0.6 per cent throughout January, spurred by surges in the cost of petrol, used cars and meat. Senate Democrats facing re-election in November look unlikely to support further spending related to Biden’s Build Back Better agenda, which Republicans argue would worsen inflation. The Senate also voted (65-27) to pass a bill in order to extend the funding of federal agencies until 11 March, averting a government shutdown. READ MORE HERE
     

  • Can’t handle the truth | A year on after his ban from Twitter, former President Donald Trump launched the test phase of his ‘Truth Social’ social media app. After suffering some technical glitches, Truth Social climbed to first place on the App Store’s top free apps. The former president’s enduring influence in US political conversation is also on display as Trump’s endorsements continue in the lead up to the midterms, having endorsed 98 candidates so far. READ MORE HERE
     

  • A defining month for AUKUS | The third meeting of the joint steering group of senior Australian, US and UK defence officials working to secure eight nuclear-powered submarines for the Royal Australian Navy is expected in Adelaide this week, Vice Admiral Jonathan Mead told the Australian Senate estimates last week. The meeting comes at the end of what Mead, head of the Nuclear-Powered Submarine Task Force, said was a "defining" month for AUKUS. READ MORE HERE

 

So, Putin is now saying, 'It’s independent,' a large section of Ukraine. I said, 'How smart is that?' And he’s gonna go in and be a peacekeeper. That’s the strongest peace force -- we could use that on our southern border...Here's a guy who's very savvy.

Remarks by Former President Trump on The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show   22 February 2022

 

WEBINAR | 1 March

Preview of Biden's first State of the Union Address

The US Constitution mandates the president “shall from time to time give Congress information of the State of the Union”, which has now become an annual address from the sitting president. This is an opportunity for the president to make their case – celebrating successes so far and setting the policy trajectory for the year ahead. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi invited President Biden to give his first State of the Union Address on 1 March 2022.

Facing dwindling poll numbers and an acrimoniously divided country, can President Biden’s address win him much needed political capital ahead of the November 2022 midterm elections? How much will the Indo-Pacific or other foreign policy feature in his address? What should Australia listen out for?

To discuss these issues, please join us before President Biden’s address for a webinar event with USSC politics experts Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy David Smith, Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe and Research Associate Victoria Cooper in conversation with CEO Professor Simon Jackman.

WHEN:
SYDNEY | Tuesday, 1 March 2022 | 10:00-11:00am AEDT                              WASHINGTON DC | Monday, 28 February 2022 | 6:00-7:00pm EST

COST:
Free but registration is essential.

You can also subscribe to have event invitations and reminders sent straight to your inbox, so you never have to miss an event!

REGISTER NOW
 

ANALYSIS

If Putin triumphs, Xi may copy that playbook in Taiwan: The high stakes for Biden

Bruce Wolpe
Non-Resident Senior Fellow, United States Studies Centre

When a foreign policy crisis first hits, presidents generally benefit from Americans instinctively standing with their leaders to face the challenge – even when news is one of failure. John Kennedy in the Bay of Pigs in Cuba, Jimmy Carter in the attempt to rescue the American hostages in Iran, George W Bush in the aftermath of September 11: all received a bump in approval as the country moved to unite and see the crisis through. When there is unvarnished success, a president’s standing can soar, as with George H W Bush in the first Gulf War.

When Russian missiles, troops and tanks invade Ukraine, will Americans rally to Biden’s call for condemnation and resolve, or will there be a bitter debate about “who lost Ukraine?” – with the President in its crosshairs.

America’s political culture has degraded over many years, most especially under Donald Trump’s presidency. Partisanship has metastasised and the cancer is everywhere. Even though there has been a degree of bipartisan dialogue on the core components of Biden’s efforts to deter Putin from invading Ukraine – punishing sanctions, beefing up NATO’s troop presence on the eastern front, and arming the Ukrainians with weapons to fight off the Russians – leaders in the Senate could not agree on sanctions legislation.

And there is significant sentiment among “America First” Trumpist Republicans that Ukraine is not America’s fight and there is no need to mess with Putin – even as he messes with the future of Europe and all the Western allies.

This is an excerpt from an article published by The Sydney Morning Herald

READ MORE HERE
 

BY THE NUMBERS

Only 16% of Americans support mandatory voting

USSC polling conducted in December 2021 indicates the idea of mandatory polling remains unpopular with the US public. Respondents were asked whether they thought "voting in elections should be mandatory for adult American citizens, like jury duty" or not. In total, just 16 per cent of respondents agreed voting should be mandatory.

There was, however, a significant partisan gap with nearly a third (27 per cent) of Biden voters agreeing compared to 8 per cent of Trump voters. 

Read more By the numbers analysis here

 

VIDEO

NATO Expert Talks | Australia's relationship with NATO

As part of the jointly presented USSC and NATO expert talks series, guest speaker James Mackey (NATO’s Director for Security Policy and Partnerships Directorate, Political Affairs and Security Policy Division) weighed in on the value of the NATO-Australia relationship, how it's progressed and how it continues to develop.

Catch more analysis on the United States on the USSC YouTube channel.

 

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University of Sydney NSW 2006

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The United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney is a university-based research centre, dedicated to the rigorous analysis of American foreign policy, economics, politics and culture. The Centre is a national resource, that builds Australia’s awareness of the dynamics shaping America — and critically — their implications for Australia.

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