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Paxton win may be a
loss for Republicans
27 May 2026
A runoff primary election usually is not international news. However, ahead of this year’s fraught midterms, where every seat counts, the Republican Senate runoff in Texas is significant both for the future of the GOP and the future of the Senate. Embattled Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton won today with more than 60% of the vote against incumbent Senator John Cornyn. The primary battle had been neck-and-neck until just over a week ago, when President Trump endorsed Paxton.
Cornyn is the latest victory for Trump in opposing people in his own party who he thinks have undermined his mission. While not as vocally opposed to President Trump as Rep. Thomas Massie, President Trump took to Truth Social to say Cornyn was “VERY disloyal to me.”
This now sets up a Senate race between Paxton and his opponent, James Talarico, a Texas state representative. While Texas has not elected a Democrat to a statewide office since 1994, two key factors may have a compounding effect on the final results.
Ken Paxton’s scandals | Paxton was impeached by the Texas Senate in 2023 for a range of issues including bribery, misappropriation of funds, obstruction of justice and dereliction of duty, among other charges (read them here). He was also indicted on felony securities fraud, which Trump said was a “bogus witch hunt.” And he is going through a very public divorce “on biblical grounds.”
James Talarico’s values | This stands in stark contrast to the progressive, seminary-trained Talarico, who shares about his Christian faith in nearly every media appearance. Since coming into the national spotlight when he joined dozens of Democratic lawmakers in breaking quorum to block the vote on Texas’ redistricted map in 2025. He has become a media darling on popular podcasts and talk shows, and the prominence of his faith may win over Texas voters who would not normally vote for a Democrat.
It does not look like Texas is changing from a Red state to a Blue state any time soon, but Talarico currently holds an edge in the polling over Paxton. When President Trump’s name is not on the ballot, turnout for the midterms may be the deciding factor. If Texas voters can’t bring themselves to vote for Paxton, they may stay home, which may end up being the deciding factor in the balance of the Senate.
Mari Koeck
Director of Engagement and Impact
Lead image: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican candidate for the US Senate, speaks during a campaign rally on 19 May 2026, in Allen. President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton over Senator John Cornyn (Photo by Elías Valverde II/The Dallas Morning News via Getty Images).
"I'm not going to vote with the party if they're going to bankrupt this country."
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