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November 2022
USSC News November 2022
As I argued in my latest piece for Foreign Policy, the results of the US midterms were, perhaps, the most optimal outcome for the Indo-Pacific, despite the uncertainties and polarisation of divided government. The deep division in US politics remains, but a Republican House will give the Biden administration’s hawks and realists a helpful boost.
Now that there is more certainty about control of the House and Senate, we can start to get an understanding of the committee chairs and their impacts on foreign policy and defence spending, particularly around AUKUS. This week we are delighted to host Vice President of Beacon Global Strategies Louis Lauter as a Visiting Fellow. Louis is a former legislative affairs official with the Pentagon and is able to give us an inside understanding of what these shifts in Congress mean for Australia. We hope you can join tonight's event with him.
This month we also published two foreign policy reports. This week we published Many hands: Australia-US contributions to Southeast Asian maritime security resilience. Research Fellow Dr Peter Lee was the lead author and worked with experts from Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam to identify opportunities for maritime security collaboration.
And, at the start of the Summit season, Research Associate Alice Nason released a report comparing the Biden administration’s diplomacy track record to those of former presidents Trump and Obama. As we close another impactful month for the United States Studies Centre (USSC), gratitude is front of mind as I just had my first Thanksgiving experience in Australia.
I have been profoundly moved by the warm and enthusiastic welcome we have received. We will continue shaping and driving our vision and mission with the involvement of many partners along the way and feel very fortunate to be working with such dedicated team members and supporters. We look forward to sharing more news about our research program next week.
Sincerely,
Dr Michael Green
CEO, United States Studies Centre.
NEWS
Student midterms watch party and trivia night
The final student event for the 2022 academic year, the USSC midterms watch party and trivia night, was held on 9 November at the Marlborough Hotel, Newtown. Hosted by Associate Professor David Smith, it was a fun evening analysing US politics over free food and drinks.
The night was equally informative and entertaining, with various competitive team trivia rounds, election results analysis, raffle draws, and many American-themed giveaways.
Report: Australia-US contributions to Southeast Asian Maritime security resilience
USSC released a new maritime security report, featuring experts from Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam on 28 November.
In Research Fellow Dr Peter Lee's latest report, Many hands: Australia-US contributions to Southeast Asian maritime security resilience, he outlines key initiatives that promote how Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam can work more effectively with Australia and the United States on maritime security issues in the South China Sea.
The report includes chapters on Indonesia by Ristian Atriandi Supriyanto from Universitas Indonesia and S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Philippines by Professor Renato Cruz De Castro from De La Salle University, Singapore by Dr Collin Koh from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies and Vietnam by Dr Lan-Anh Nguyen from the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam.
Bonnie Glaser's take on Taiwan
Following Chinese President Xi Jinping's recent sidelines discussions with President Biden, Prime Minister Albanese and Vice President Harris, the German Marshall Fund's Asia Program Director, Bonnie Glaser, joined USSC CEO Dr Mike Green to discuss the latest state of play regarding a potential Taiwan invasion.
She told attendees, "I see nothing in the political report of the 20th Party Congress that would lead me to conclude that there's greater urgency on the part of Xi Jinping and I was looking for it. I expected that we would see something and I did not. And I think that was deliberate."
Watch the full event here or listen to the USSC Live podcast episode here.
Report: Dedication or distraction in Indo-Pacific diplomacy?
In her first major report at USSC, Research Associate Alice Nason compared the US Indo-Pacific engagement under the Obama, Trump and Biden presidencies.
The report, Dedication or distraction in Indo-Pacific diplomacy?, found the Biden administration kept its promise to reinvigorate diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific region in its first 18 months in office. However, President Biden himself took 16 months to make his first visit to the Indo-Pacific, while he was a regular visitor to Europe throughout his first 18 months in office.
Importantly, President Biden’s digital engagement with regional heads of state was also subdued. President Biden made only 24 calls to Indo-Pacific counterparts over 18 months, where President Trump made 55 and President Obama made 21 calls.
USSC perspectives
The US midterm elections had significant implications for US foreign policy. USSC published a number of pieces analysing the results as well as deeper dives into the US midterms 2022 polling:
- US midterm results are a net plus for national security by Dr Michael Green, first published in Foreign Policy
- Trump remains a winner where it really matters by Victoria Cooper, first published in The Australian Financial Review
- ‘Red wave’ fails to materialise as Democrats perform above expectations in tight midterm race by Jared Mondschein, first published in The Conversation
- There’s a big Republican winner, and his name is not Trump by Bruce Wolpe, first published in The Sydney Morning Herald
In the news
The fallout from the 2022 midterms was a leading news story coming out of the United States, particularly the implications of the failure of the Republican Party to secure a 'red wave' of voter support. The midterms have ramifications for US foreign policy too, with some Republicans questioning the extent to which America continues to provide aid to Ukraine in its war with the Russian Federation.
Why Australia-China tensions are here to stay, despite a diplomatic reset
US President Joe Biden and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (albeit separately) met with Chinese President Xi Jinping amid the G20 summit happening in Indonesia on 15 November. CEO Dr Michael Green is quoted by TIME magazine on the importance of this meeting. READ MORE HERE
What will happen to Ukraine's weapons supply if Republicans control US Congress and stop the 'blank cheque' to Kyiv?
Under President Joe Biden, the US has been the biggest contributor of weapons to Ukraine, sending more than $US18.5 billion in military aid to the battlefield. But as Research Fellow Tom Corben notes in ABC News, the longer-term impacts of a Republican-controlled Congress remain unclear. READ MORE HERE
Is Donald Trump really in trouble? What the Republican blame game over the midterm elections suggests about 2024
Despite former US President Donald Trump's prediction of a "big, beautiful red wave" the electoral map revealed a relatively weak swing for the Republican Party. As Associate Professor David Smith notes for ABC News, "I think that we've now reached one of these inflection points when it looks like party elites could turn against Trump." READ MORE HERE
Donald Trump has announced he is running for US president in 2024. Here's
what we know
After months of speculation, the former president has officially announced he will be running for the Republican nominee in the 2024 US presidential election. Director of Research Jared Mondschein told SBS News the impeachments would only have impacted a future presidential run if Mr Trump had been convicted. READ MORE HERE
EVENTS
What does the new Congress mean for Australia?
While the broad bipartisan support for AUKUS and the Australia-US alliance is unlikely to change with the new Congress, budget constraints and priorities will likely shift in ways that present both new challenges and new opportunities for Australia. What will a Republican-controlled House of Representatives mean for US defence spending? Will the election results change the US approach to China? How and where can Australia work with the United States on the next steps for AUKUS?
To discuss these issues, please join us for an in-person event with Louis Lauter, a former Legislative Affairs official with the US Department of Defense and Vice President of Beacon Global Strategies in conversation with United States Studies Centre CEO Dr Michael Green.
WHEN
SYDNEY | Wednesday, 30 November, 6:00-7:30pm AEDT
COST
Free, but registration is essential
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
Event replays
The latest videos from our webinars and events are available on our YouTube channel. Catch up on these events through the USSC Live podcast and on YouTube. Here are the latest replays:
- Is a 2023 Taiwan invasion imminent or implausible? with German Marshall Fund's Bonnie Glaser and USSC's Dr Michael Green.
- A US-Australian agenda for climate change after the midterms with RMI's Lachlan Carey, Net Zero Emissions and Clean Economy Board's Megan McDonald and USSC's Dr Michael Green.
- Sharks and the US presidency: A conversation with bite with the University of Sydney's Dr Christopher Pepin-Neff and USSC's David Smith.
- Danger Zone: The coming conflict with China with author Hal Brands with John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies' Prof. Hal Brands and USSC's Dr Gorana Grgic.
Make sure to SUBSCRIBE to the USSC YouTube channel to get notifications as soon as new videos are uploaded.
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United States Studies Centre
Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006
