19 August 2026

The 60-day deadline on the memorandum of understanding to negotiate an end to the Iran war passed on Monday. Given the intermittent resumption in hostilities and lack of progress on substantive negotiations, this milestone largely passed with a whimper. However, one of the most significant developments this week has not been threats from the United States towards Iran, but towards US partner, Oman.

Iran and Oman flank the Strait of Hormuz and have recently been in discussions around management of the strait. But in a fiery Oval Office exchange, President Trump threatened to “bomb the ****” out of Oman if they interfere with US negotiations. While Trump insists the Iranians are keen to make a deal, there is little to show after nearly six months of war.

While attempting to navigate a solution in the Middle East (including sending son-in-law Jared Kushner to Egypt and Israel to progress the Gaza ceasefire with Hamas and Israel) Trump faces growing resistance at home. This week, multiple outlets covered concerning living conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, which was sent to the Middle East in January, from the South China Sea, after leaving California in November. Reports emerged of some sailors attempting to jump ship and family members have expressed concern over food shortages, broken plumbing and more.

The USS George Washington is now en route to relieve the crew (leaving no US aircraft carriers in the Western Pacific). However this news, coupled with the stories of shrinking US munitions stockpiles, signals mounting pressure on the US position. In response, Iran seems to be settling in for the long haul. Experts are increasingly drawing parallels to the Iranian hostage crisis in 1979, saying Iran may now be settling in to wait out the war through the US midterm elections, or longer. Whether President Trump can change trajectory or find a diplomatic off-ramp remains to be seen. However, Oman has long played a central role in backchannel negotiations with Iran. If the United States cannot work with Oman, they will significantly limit their pathways towards reaching a final Iran deal.

Mari Koeck
Director of Engagement and Impact

Lead image: A US Army air defence artilleryman conducts maintenance on an MIM-104 Patriot missile system in the Middle East, 1 June 2026. Source: US Army

"There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect."

President Trump on Truth Social | 18 August 2026

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