28 February 2025

USSC CEO on key takeaways from the early days of the Trump administration

The first month of Trump 2.0 has left much of Washington stunned and disoriented and allies from Europe to Asia unsettled. The president and Elon Musk are following the American football strategy of "flooding the zone", where the offence sends everybody downfield at once to overwhelm and disorient the defence. It can work well...but not for the whole game. Veteran Republican strategists like Karl Rove are warning the administration to slow down before it breaks itself. Veteran Democratic strategists like James Carville are advising Democrats to stand by because the Trump administration will eventually crash and burn. 

Public opinion polls show that a majority of Americans started out liking the boldness of Trump's early moves, which they saw as a contrast to President Biden's diminishing presence towards the end of his term. And most observers expected that a Republican administration would naturally reprioritise policies and cut government programs. What few saw coming was that Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) would put technicians inside the government to pause payments to multiple departments and non-profits before any official review could even be conducted.

The first 100 days of most presidents are called the "honeymoon period" when Congress and the public give the new administration time to get started, but we have never seen a start quite like this. Can it continue? Opinions vary but five headwinds are worth watching.

Since we do not know what this disruption means in the longer term, it is critical to have objective, historically informed analysis and a focus on achieving policy outcomes even when the political grounding underfoot is shaking. The United States Studies Centre (USSC) is configured to do that – independent, connected and informed. In this and all of our other work we will endeavour to bring that clarity in the months and years to come.

Upcoming events

News

JADE delegation visits Japan

In early February, Dr Michael Green and Prof. Peter Dean led a delegation of four Australian Japan-Australia Dialogue and Exchange (JADE) fellows and two foreign policy experts from the USSC to Tokyo. The JADE program is delivered in partnership with the Japan Foundation and, while in Tokyo, the foundation hosted a workshop and networking reception. The delegation was welcomed by the President of the Japan Foundation, Mr Shinya “Billy” Kurosawa. The Australian and Japanese fellows shared their research findings and views on the future of Australia-Japan relations.

The delegation had key meetings with the Parliamentary Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs, Rep Arfiya Eri; Commandant of Yokosuka District VADM Tomohiko Madono; Australian Ambassador Justin Hayhurst; and representatives of the Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and multiple NGOs.

Key outcomes from these discussions were about how Australia has become Japan’s most important partner after the United States and how further bilateral collaboration through people-to-people exchanges and on issues of information security, cybersecurity, defence industry and technology are paramount.

American Studies raises the roof at Welcome Week

In mid-February, USSC hosted one of the liveliest tents at welcome week – a county fair themed booth, complete with a petting zoo and lawn games. Many students stopped by to learn about how they could study in the United States, add an American Studies course to their degree or complete a Masters with the USSC.

Rising to the challenge: Delivering Australia’s nuclear-powered submarine program

USSC convened a mix of government officials, defence and technology representatives and experts from the higher-education sector for a 1.5 Track dialogue focused on navigating key challenges in turning AUKUS Pillar I into a reality. The discussion looked at issues from nuclear power capabilities to workforce requirements and the civil-military relationship.

This conference was made possible through generous support from Bechtel, HII and Babcock.

First visiting fellow of 2025: Kevin Wolf

USSC welcomed our first visiting fellow of 2025 this month, Kevin Wolf, who is a Partner at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP and former Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Export Administration, Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) under the first and second Obama administrations. He specialises in export controls and provided helpful analysis of current US-China competition – particularly in relation to AI, chips and export controls.

While he was in Australia, he held a public forum and ran a workshop with USSC’s NextGen fellows. He also had briefings and a roundtable in Canberra to discuss these issues in detail.

Geopolitics and Business Sprint – final days to enrol

With geopolitical risks being one of the most significant concerns facing businesses today – USSC has teamed up with Sydney Executive Plus to release a two-week microcredential to support leaders through these challenges.

Led by USSC experts, in partnership with specialists from KPMG’s Geopolitics Hub, the Geopolitics and Business Sprint will help you turn the complex geopolitical landscape into opportunity. 

Across 5 modules, the sprint will take you deep into economic security approaches around the world; US and Australian supply chain policies; how regional conflicts impact firms; emerging market forces in APAC; and how business leaders can anticipate and interpret these shifts.

The next course starts on 20 March. It is delivered online so you can join from anywhere in the world. Enrol now to secure your spot.

As a Fulbright Scholar, Alice will examine the modernisation of the Australia-US alliance and the implementation of the AUKUS partnership on nuclear-powered submarines.

“My Fulbright project will explore Australia-US defence cooperation efforts in an increasingly contested Indo-Pacific. The focal point of my research will be assessing the domestic dynamics surrounding implementation of the AUKUS partnership – our most complex and ambitious joint effort – and understanding its impact on the fabric of our alliance.”

USSC looks forward to the impact of her research and wishes her every success in this next chapter.

Trump 2.0 briefing at Parliament House

On 13 February, a panel of experts from USSC spoke to a group of senior government representatives and officials and representatives at Parliament House in Canberra. CEO Dr Michael Green, Director of Foreign Policy and Defence Professor Peter Dean, Director of Economic Security Hayley Channer, Senior Economic Adviser Dr John Kunkel and Director of Research Jared Mondschein shared their insights on what to expect in the new Trump administration, key administration officials for Australia to work with and pathways for continued cooperation between Australia and the United States.

Geopolitical trends to watch in 2025

Shortly after President Trump’s inauguration on 20 January, CEO Dr Michael Green and Director of Economic Security Hayley Channer provided a briefing on the geopolitical trends to watch in 2025. They discussed the impacts of Trump’s economic, trade and technology policies on Australian businesses and key international watch points for Australia.

The event was standing-room only, but if you missed out, you can still watch the event replay here.

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