No images? Click here 2 November 2022Nuclear-capable bombers mask deeper trend toward alliancesThis week, the rotation of up to six US nuclear-capable B-52 bombers through an Australian Defence Force base in Darwin has been making waves, though as United States Studies Centre (USSC) experts, including Research Fellow Tom Corben point out, it is a continuation rather than new initiative and was foreshadowed at last year’s Australia-US Ministerial (AUSMIN) meetings. That discussion indicates the broader trajectory of the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific. Following the lead of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the US strategy to counter Chinese coercion has been through strengthening alliances and partnerships to firm up regional resilience. My latest article in Foreign Affairs is out now. In it I share that this is now the US grand strategy:
Last week, USSC released polling showing 27 per cent of Australians would like to see an increase in the number of US troops with access to defence facilities in Australia, compared to 45 per cent who would like the number to remain the same. Only 17 per cent of respondents wanted to either decrease or remove US troops altogether. One week out from the US midterm elections, I and many in the foreign policy community in the region will be closely watching who heads the congressional Armed Services and Appropriations committees. This will provide the best indication of what this might mean for both the footprint of US troops in Australia and their approach to countering China. Sincerely NEWS WRAPPelosi target of kidnapping attempt
PUBLIC FORUMDanger Zone: The coming conflict with China with author Hal BrandsIf the rest of the 21st century will be defined by strategic competition, Professor Hal Brands posits the 2020s will be the most intense and definitive decade. As the US-China rivalry hits fever pitch, China’s aggression toward Taiwan, economic coercion and military escalation will only escalate during this critical period, which Brands and co-author Michael Beckley label the “Danger Zone.” Join the United States Studies Centre for an event featuring Professor Hal Brands, author of Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China in conversation with USSC's Senior Lecturer in US Politics and Foreign Policy Dr Gorana Grgic to discuss these issues. WHEN COST ANALYSISA Republican midterm win will boost US China strategyDr Michael Green, CEO, United States Studies Centre The growing polarisation on display ahead of the US midterm elections next week does not bode well for the Biden administration. If Republicans gain a majority in the US House of Representatives, as polls suggest, they will unleash a torrent of debilitating partisan attacks on the administration. The Jan. 6 committee will be disbanded; US President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, will be investigated; Biden could face impeachment proceedings; and the wing of the Republican Party beholden to Fox News host Tucker Carlson and his adulation of the Kremlin will threaten to block funding for Ukraine. Although increased congressional scrutiny on some issues will be welcome—for example, to examine the administration’s botched Afghanistan withdrawal—much of it will be painful for the White House and unnerving for US allies concerned about US leadership. But as far as competition with China is concerned, divided government could be just what is needed to unite Americans around the administration’s strategy. This is because Republicans tend to push Democratic administrations to deliver on defence and trade—two critical pillars of competition with China. At the same time, any potential divisiveness will be tempered by the fact that the US Congress and average Americans agree on confronting the China challenge more than they agree on just about anything else. Sceptics will argue that the pro-defence, pro-trade Republican Party no longer exists—that it was destroyed when Donald Trump was elected president in 2016. It is true that the Republican base has become more skeptical of trade agreements, and dangerously isolationist voices have emerged within the party’s “Make America Great Again” wing. But there is also more bipartisanship in Congress on competition with China than ever before. Indeed, this is one of the few areas of consensus in Washington these days. It was a bipartisan coalition that pushed through the CHIPS and Science Act in August, which will arm the administration with $50 billion to revitalise the US semiconductor industry, attract allied investment to the United States, and maintain the free world’s edge over China in the race to dominate emerging technologies like artificial intelligence. The original author of that bill was Sen. Todd Young, a Republican from reliably conservative Indiana, and the bill was co-sponsored by liberal stalwart Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York. The China threat makes for strange bedfellows indeed. This is an excerpt from A Republican midterm win will boost US China strategy, first published in Foreign Policy. ![]() The [Indo-Pacific] region has faced increasing tensions. I know that, since I served [as US ambassador] in Japan. But America has ... supported peace and stability throughout this region. We do it through diplomacy, we do it through dialogue, we do it through deterrence… we work with our allies and partners to make this safe. Ambassador Caroline Kennedy at ABC News Melbourne | 31 October, 2022 BY THE NUMBERS Strong Australian support for US access to military facilitiesIn the recent US midterms 2022 polling, an overwhelming majority (72 per cent) of Australian respondents wanted US access to Australian military facilities to stay the same or increase. Twenty-seven per cent wanted to see an increase in US access and 45 per cent wanted it to stay the same. This is in stark contrast to the 10 per cent who wanted the access to decrease and seven per cent who wanted to remove US military access altogether. The support was bipartisan, although a strong 40 per cent of Coalition voters wanted to see an increase, compared to 18 per cent of Labor voters. However, even for Labor voters, only 11 per cent said they wanted to decrease access. This is an excerpt from US midterms 2022: The stakes for Australia and the alliance by Director of Research Jared Mondschein and Research Associate Victoria Cooper VIDEOUS Midterms 2022 with Jane Coaston and Annabel CrabbWhat US issues are the biggest concern for US and Australian voters? What is the state of play going into the midterms? What do the midterms tell us about what to expect in the 2024 US presidential election? To explore these topics, USSC hosted a special US midterms event featuring The New York Times' Jane Coaston, ABC's Political commentator Annabel Crabb, and USSC's CEO Dr Michael Green. Catch more podcast and video analysis on the United States here. Manage your email preferences | Forward this email to a friend United States Studies Centre |