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26 July 2023
An alliance fit for purpose
The biennial Talisman Sabre military exercise began last weekend, bringing 30,000 troops to Queensland and northern Australia for the largest and most ambitious war games since the exercise’s first iteration in 2005. Now involving 13 countries, including several Pacific Island nations and Germany for the first time, what began as a joint activity between Australia and the United States to deepen defence ties has expanded, reflecting the heightened global attention on the changing security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. As the United States Studies Centre’s Director of Economic Security Hayley Channer told the ABC, the expansion of the exercise shows "a recognition that Australia needs more than just the United States, we need lots of partners across the Indo-Pacific region."
It is against this backdrop that the annual Australia-US Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN) will be held this week in Brisbane on 28 and 29 July, seeing US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin meet with their Australian counterparts, Penny Wong and Richard Marles. While the defence relationship is top of mind, the annual 2+2 meeting is an important forum to bolster bilateral cooperation across the entire alliance agenda.
NEWS WRAP
AUKUS meets America First
- Senate debates threaten AUKUS | Ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee Senator Roger Wicker ruled out language in the latest version of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) that would authorise the transfer of nuclear submarine technology to Australia under the AUKUS pact. While support for AUKUS remains high, the senator joins other Senate Republicans eager to ensure the United States has sufficient defence funding to be sure of its own nuclear submarine fleet before the first pillar of AUKUS is endorsed. READ MORE HERE
- Israel poses test for Biden | Israeli lawmakers passed judicial changes through Israel’s parliament on 24 July in a widely criticised and fiercely protested decision that is said to weaken the independence and oversight of the Israeli Supreme Court. With President Biden calling the decision “unfortunate” and expressing concern about the Netanyahu government in recent weeks, the close relationship between the United States and Israel poses a new test to Biden’s foreign policy. READ MORE HERE
- McCarthy floats impeachment idea | Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy floated the prospect of a Biden impeachment inquiry on Fox News, saying the House investigation into the business dealings of President Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, implies the president weaponised
the power of government to benefit his family and further investigative powers are needed. READ MORE HERE
- Recession risk recedes | As the latest inflation figures in Australia reveal another quarter of lower annual inflation, falling inflation and wage rises in the United States offer a potential soft landing for the US economy and a solid boost for President Biden as he looks to tout his effective leadership ahead of the 2024 presidential election. READ MORE HERE
#GoodbyeTwitter | Elon Musk has replaced Twitter’s iconic blue bird logo with an X, aligning the social media platform with other of the billionaire’s X-branded outfits like ‘SpaceX’ and ‘X.com’ (later PayPal) and pushing for the platform to become an “everything app” with new features. READ MORE HERE
"Our Alliance is continuing to evolve with our strategic circumstances. We are broadening AUSMIN to integrate new areas for cooperation in line with the region's priorities, including emerging technologies, the clean energy transition and the essential role of critical minerals."
Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong in statement ahead of AUSMIN | 19 July 2023
EVENT
Sydney International Strategy Forum: The United States, Australia and the contested Indo Pacific
Support for alliances is strong in Washington, as the ambitious AUKUS pact charts new territory in critical technologies and sovereign capabilities and diverse Indo-Pacific networks of bilateral, trilateral, and quadrilateral cooperation shape the regional balance of power. At the same time, US allies and partners are expressing concerns about the Biden administration’s industrial policy agenda and US-China trade and technology wars, underscoring the complexities of “friend shoring” and “de-risking” critical supply chains. On the US domestic front, a looming 2024 presidential race and the prospect of another Trump presidency also raises questions about the future of sustained US engagement in the world.
The United States Studies Centre invites you to the launch of its flagship conference, the Sydney International Strategy Forum, where these issues,
and the enormous risks and opportunities associated with each, will be tackled by prominent experts and thought leaders. Confirmed speakers include Michele Flournoy, Admiral Phil Davidson, Dr Evan Medeiros, Ryan Lizza and Olivia Nuzzi.
TYPE
Conference
WHERE
Four Seasons Hotel Sydney, 199 George Street, The Rocks NSW
WHEN
SYDNEY | Wednesday, 1 November 2023, 8.30am-4.30pm AEDT
COST
Early bird: A$499 (ends 31 July 2023)
Student: A$180
Full price: A$560
Book your tickets here
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
Did you USSC?
Podcast | Synthetic biotech, DARPA for intelligence and AI regulation with RAND CEO Jason Matheny
Emerging Technology Director Dr Miah Hammond-Errey is joined by Jason Matheny, CEO of RAND Corporation and founder of CSET to delve into the complexities of regulating emerging technologies. LISTEN TO THE EPISODE
Commentary | The right lessons to
take from Australia-Japan defence cooperation
Research Fellow Tom Corben writes in Nikkei Asia about the evolution of the Australia-Japan relationship amid new momentum. READ MORE HERE
Commentary | Why the
2024 election will likely be a choice between Biden and Trump again
Research Editor Victoria Cooper discusses the prospects of Biden and Trump going head-to-head in next year's presidential election. READ MORE HERE
BY THE NUMBERS
Trump's hectic 2024 calendar
By Victoria Cooper, Research Editor
Donald Trump’s numerous court appearances are set to overlap with key dates in the 2024 presidential primary calendar, prompting concerns from his campaign team about their potential interference with the former president’s third formal bid for the Oval Office.
Last week, Judge Aileen Cannon who is overseeing the 38 federal charges of alleged classified documents mishandling – the second of Trump’s two indictment cases – set a start date for the trial on 20 May 2024. The date is midway between the proposals submitted by the prosecution and Trump’s legal team, clearing the crucial Super Tuesday voting bloc and coming well in ahead of the expected announcement of the GOP candidate at the Republican National Convention in July 2024.
Yet, with three other trials set before this case is heard in May next year and two of them occurring before early primaries, Trump contends that the prosecution of so many cases around key campaign dates amounts to political persecution and that each of the legal cases is trying to tilt the scales of the next election in Joe Biden’s favour. This message seems to play well with Trump’s electoral base, maintaining high approval ratings among Republican primary voters. It also appears to boost
Trump's campaign funds, with a recent report showing spikes in the day-to-day contributions to Trump’s campaign coffers every time there has been a major legal development in the last six months.
President Trump may soon formally receive a third indictment having recently received a target letter from special counsel Jack Smith who is investigating his involvement in efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. Another criminal indictment may also soon arise through a state-based investigation of electoral interference in Fulton County, Georgia. This means Trump could face as many as six legal prosecutions while running for the highest office in the United States.
With dates so close together, the major question now is whether voters or juries will have the final say about Trump’s chances at the 47th presidency. Time will tell.
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Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006
