No images? Click here
Framework first: US-Iran deal
leaves core terms open
17 June 2026
On President Trump’s 80th birthday on Sunday, the United States and Iran digitally signed a memorandum of understanding to potentially end their fighting. With the deal not yet published, both sides are spinning this as a victory. Like most deals under Trump 2.0, rather than a detailed and concrete agreement, a framework has been announced and they will need to negotiate most specifics later.
The Trump administration said the full MoU will be made public by the end of the week, but administration officials are downplaying the importance of the text of the document itself. Whether the deal is a net positive or net negative for the United States and Iran will depend on key factors, including:
Nuclear weapons
At a G7 press conference, President Trump answered questions about the Iran deal saying, “The main thing is that Iran won’t have a nuclear weapon, they’ve fully agreed to that.” Iran has repeatedly promised this in the past (including in the JCPOA). Vice President JD Vance highlighted one key difference: the deal includes a two-path option. If Iran does not take steps towards nuclear proliferation, sanctions will be lifted, previously sanctioned funds will be released and Iran may be able to access a US$300 billion development fund. However, if they pursue nuclear weapons, Vance says, “this deal ensures they will never have the resources in order to do that.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu broke with President Trump over the deal’s failure to address the nuclear weapons issue. Continued fighting between Israel and Lebanon is one of the biggest risks to derailing the deal.
Ballistic missiles
Early in the war, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, “The United States is conducting an operation to eliminate the threat of Iran’s short-range ballistic missiles.” This objective has been repeatedly cited, especially amidst mixed messages about the state of Iran’s nuclear capabilities and whether they posed an “imminent threat” or were “obliterated” after the June 2025 bombings. So far in discussions about the new deal, no details have been released about Iran’s ballistic missile program.
Strait of Hormuz
The United States and Iran have agreed the Strait of Hormuz will be opened. President Trump said the strait will be “permanently toll-free”, but Iran is discussing charging fees “in exchange for the services that are provided.” Whether a fee differs from a toll is a reminiscent
semantic debate to whether a tariff is a tax. Ultimately, whether ships can pass through the strait may come down to whether they can secure insurance.
In his press tour to discuss the deal, Vice President JD Vance emphasised that this MoU, more than anything else, resets the US-Iran relationship. Critically, the agreement is for 60 days, with the intention that outstanding issues will be resolved by then. The JCPOA took nearly two years to negotiate, but the success of this relationship reset and negotiations will be most evident in any agreement that emerges at the end of 60 days, or the absence of one.
Mari Koeck
Director of Engagement and Impact
Lead image: President Trump exits Air Force One en route to attend the G7 Leaders'
Summit in France on 15 June 2026 (photo by Anna Moneymaker for Getty).
"They fully agree to that with strong policing powers, and they won't have a nuclear weapon, which is what it was all about."
Recent content
REPORTMeeting the moment: How the Quad can deliver in a new strategic eraIn this outcomes report, Senior Research Associate Ava Kalinauskas, Senior Research Associate Samuel Garrett and Research Director Jared Mondschein reveal themes from the second Quad Track 1.5 Leadership Dialogue held in Sydney, Australia in February 2026 |
COMMENTARYWhy Muskism is not just post-Fordist — it is post-humanistProfessor Brendon O'Connor analyses "Muskism", comparing it to "Fordism" and analysing the broader impacts in this op-ed for ABC Religion and Ethics. |
In the news
ABC | Locals affected by Ireland's AI data centre boom share 'cautionary tales'
USSC Research Associate Johanna Lim spoke with ABC News, saying that while Australia was not on the same trajectory as Ireland regarding data centres, bringing enough renewable energy generation and storage to offset data centre demand should be part of federal government policy.
The Australian | US and Iran hover between peace and war as doubts swirl over Trump’s deal claims
Ahead of the confirmation of the MoU between the United States and Iran, USSC CEO Dr Michael Green spoke with The Australian about Iran's objectives in any deal saying, "The Iranian strategic goal is to impose a cost on the United States for starting the war."
SBS | The US-Iran peace deal may be Donald Trump's gain — and Benjamin Netanyahu's problem
USSC Associate Professor David Smith spoke with SBS News about the Iran deal, noting that, "This deal will be an improvement on the current situation for the US, but overall, the US is worse off than they were before the war began."
Sky News | ‘Still early days’: Analyst warns multiple factors could ‘derail’ US-Iran peace deal
USSC Director of Research Jared Mondschein spoke with Sky News about the US-Iran deal, warning there are a number of factors that could derail it, saying, "It still is early days at this point."
Manage your email preferences | Forward this email to a friend
United States Studies Centre
Institute Building (H03)
University of Sydney NSW 2006