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3 November
Methane is the new black
The G20 meeting wrapped with a pledge for member countries to stop financing new coal-burning power-plants without abatements (e.g., carbon capture and storage technology), but no commitments to phasing out coal as an energy source.
With a coal phase-out seemingly off the table, the United States and EU have pivoted to methane as a rallying point at COP26. Methane gets far less press than CO2, but molecule for molecule, has orders of magnitude times more global warming potential (GWP). Today, 60 per cent of atmospheric methane is from human sources: agriculture, mining and energy production, and waste the largest sources. Quite simply: without curbing methane emissions, we will not keep global warming within the IPCC targets.
While President Biden and his EU counterparts pledged to cut 2030 methane levels by 30 per cent relative to 2020, Australia, Russia, China and India did not agree to the pledge.
Methane, of course, is the dominant component of natural gas (about 90 per cent by volume); leaks from wells, pipelines and transfer points are a growing source of atmospheric methane, dampening the potential of gas as an energy source with less GHG emissions than coal. Burning coal and petro-chemicals also releases methane, but agriculture is the single largest human source of atmospheric methane.
With the Coalition delicately adopting a 2050 net-zero target — and carefully managing National Party scepticism — little wonder that Australia would not join the 2030 methane pledges. It would seem a new front has opened up in the climate tensions between Australia and the United States.
But these differences have not seen as much press as the less-than-diplomatic exchanges between Biden, Macron and Morrison. In response to The Australian’s article claiming President Biden “threw Scott Morrison under the bus” regarding tensions with France after tearing up the multi-billion dollar sub deal, I told Sky News yesterday, as Biden seeks to repair the relationship with President Macron, his word choice is calculated and, given the strength of the US-Australia bilateral relationship, Biden bets that “the Aussies can take a word or two like ‘clumsy.’”
Domestic political considerations abound in all these matters. Macron and Morrison both face elections soon. Biden is under extreme pressure as his signature legislative agenda has yet to be ratified (even with his party’s majority in Congress) and his approval ratings now mirror former President Trump’s at this stage in his presidency. Suffice it to say, their speeches and statements at the G20 and COP26 are targeted at least as much – if not more – to their audiences at home.
Professor Simon Jackman
CEO, United States Studies Centre
NEWS WRAP
Swing state showdown
- GOP winning in Virginia | In the first major swing state election since 2020, the Virginia gubernatorial election was a virtual dead heat in polling. However, Trump-endorsed Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin triumphed over Virginia Democrat candidate Terry McAuliffe. With its status as a swing state — Biden bested Trump by 10 points in 2020 — Virginia acts as a forecast for midterm elections and a ‘pub test’ of the president’s first few months in office. By this measure, should Democrats be worried heading into 2022? READ MORE HERE
- COP-OUT26? | Biden and EU leaders pivoted to new methane reductions as the crowning achievement of COP26, but Russia, China, India and Australia were not on board. Biden voiced disappointment with Russia and China’s absence from the in-person meeting. The two countries, along with India, have not set net-zero targets for 2050. READ MORE HERE
- To ban or not to ban | In the US Supreme Court, a verdict may arise sooner than expected with Justices Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett seemingly sympathetic to the oral arguments of abortion providers in Whole Woman’s Health v. Jackson. The challenges have argued that the Texas Heartbeat Act (SB 8) uses a loophole (private enforcement) to deliberately evade federal judicial review and abortion providers should be allowed to sue Texas to block the law until its constitutionality is resolved. Justice Kavanaugh, who previously upheld two emergency appeals, has now raised concern with the precedent private enforcement could set for other rights, including gun ownership. READ MORE HERE
- COVID: Bad news, good news | The world passed five million recorded COVID-19 deaths this week, with disparity increasing between vaccine rich and vaccine poor nations. However, in hopeful news, the US FDA has authorised Pfizer and BioNTech vaccines for 5-11 year old children. Continuing with the “warp speed” trajectory established by Trump, the White House is set to roll out 15 million vaccinations by next week. READ MORE HERE
Right now, we’re still falling short. There’s no more time to hang back or sit on the fence or argue amongst ourselves
Remarks by President Biden at the COP26 Leaders Statement | 1 November 2021
ANALYSIS
Congress constraints mean the US and Australia aren’t so far apart on climate after all
Professor Simon Jackman
CEO, United States Studies Centre
Imagine that Donald Trump had won re-election in 2020 and was still president of the United States, which remained withdrawn from the Paris climate accords and almost surely sitting out the Glasgow climate conference.
In this scenario, would we have seen the Morrison government spend 2021 crabwalking towards a net-zero 2050 target and making its announcement this week? Absent the spotlight that the Biden administration has put on climate change, what position would Australia be taking to Glasgow this weekend?
This is not to say that the Australian Government has acted so as to head off criticism from the United States; rather, the change in the US position would have seen a recalcitrant Australia increasingly isolated internationally, and the strong public signals from the Biden administration have almost surely nudged Australian public opinion and business leaders further towards acceptance of net-zero.
Nonetheless, the “Australian way” is unlikely to satisfy US critics. The absence of an explicit 2030 target and the lack of detail about how Australia intends to get to net zero have been rounded on in US media. Australia goes to Glasgow with data on emissions per capita pegging us at about 140 per cent of US levels and at 150 per cent of America’s greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP.
Over the last year, coal generated 63 per cent of power in Australia’s national electricity market but just 19 per cent in the United States, with gas supplying 40 per cent and nuclear power 20 per cent. Gas is now the single largest source of electricity in the United States, producing about 50 per cent the CO2 emissions of coal per unit of electricity generated, and a big part of the reason why its economy has become less carbon intensive. Easing US dependence on gas will be no trivial thing. But the country is much further down the decarbonisation runway.
Joe Biden’s presidential campaign made it obvious that climate and energy were likely to become a source of tension in what is an otherwise extremely close relationship. Upon his swearing in, the Morrison government saw Australia’s most important international partner vault from being on its right to its left on the most significant and challenging global issue of our time.
For many Democrats, global leadership on combating climate change exemplifies a restoration of the United States as a force for good and hence is a source of national pride and purpose, repudiating Trump’s “America First” hostility towards multilateralism and Maga-nation’s rejection of science substantiating anthropogenic climate change.
On his first day in office, Biden recommitted the United States to the Paris climate agreement and set a goal of a 50 to 52 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, with a special emphasis on decarbonising electricity generation. His appointment of Barack Obama’s secretary of state John Kerry as special envoy on climate further heightened anticipation that climate and energy would become delicate matters in the Australia-US bilateral relationship. Rarely does a change of administration in the United States produce such policy discontinuity on an issue of such significance to Australian interests.
This is an excerpt of an article first published by The Guardian.
BY THE NUMBERS
Independents reverse on Biden
Sarah Hamilton
Research Associate for Data Insights
While President Biden's approval ratings continue to drop across the board, the change in sentiment from independent voters has been most stark. At the start of his presidency, 61 per cent of independents approved Biden, slightly ahead of the overall 57 per cent approval rating. Since mid-year however, they have turned on Biden and dropped by nearly half to 34 per cent approval as of last week.
In comparison, at the start of Trump's presidency in 2017, his approval rating from independent voters was 42 per cent. In 10 months it dropped only nine points to 33 per cent.
If this trend continues, Biden's support from independents is on track to fall below Trump's by the end of next week.
THE ALLIANCE AT 70 | The Indo-Pacific
Unparalleled networks of treaties, allies and partnerships
The following is an excerpt from The Alliance at 70 from The Honourable Julie Bishop, Minister for Foreign Affairs (2013-18)
During the five years I served as Australia’s Foreign Minister, it was a recurring theme in many parts of the world that notwithstanding an increase in great power competition, there was a desire for greater engagement with the US Government and its private sector.
Investment from US companies is regarded highly in the vast majority of countries and particularly in developing nations. There is a huge well of goodwill towards the United States and the role it continues to play internationally. It is vital that is maintained through ongoing high-level engagement globally.
Esteemed former US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has regularly called for a greater focus on diplomacy as the best way to peacefully resolve tensions internationally.
The great strength of the United States is not only economic and military power, but also its unparalleled global networks of treaties, allies and partnerships.
There is concern among some nations that the United States is showing signs of potentially retreating to an isolationist posture of past eras.
That narrative can be countered with a resurgence of sustained high-level engagement from US leaders and officials and importantly from US private-sector investors.
Nations seeking to grow their economies and develop their physical and human capital will continue to seek mutually beneficial international relationships, and the United States can continue to be the bedrock of their development and success.
VIDEO
The fate of President Biden's legislative agenda in Congress
Last week the United States Studies Centre hosted a discussion featuring Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe and Chair of the Department of Political Science at Miami University (Ohio), Professor Bryan Marshall, who recently published the second edition of The Committee, an authoritative study of Congress during the Obama administration.
Together with Sarah Storey, most recently the Minister Counsellor (Congressional) at the Australian Embassy in Washington DC, where she managed the Embassy's strategic engagement with Congress, Wolpe and Marshall discussed Biden's legislative agenda as it moves to climactic votes that will define his legacy.
Catch more analysis on the United States on the USSC YouTube channel.
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Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006
