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4 May 2022

Voters trust Republicans to manage inflation

Six months out from the midterms new polling paints a dire picture for Democrats. President Biden’s approval rating reached a new low of 42 per cent, but the new news is that the economy and inflation emerge as the top two issues for voters. On these two issues, Republicans hold a two-digit advantage over Democrats when it comes to voters' views of their handling of the economy and inflation. 

Republicans, in general, are in pole position heading into the midterms, leading Democrats (47 per cent to 44 per cent) according to the latest Marist poll. However, which version of Republicans will be on the ballot was tested today in the Ohio primaries. Several candidates courted Trump, but (despite the name flub on the weekend), JD Vance successfully secured Trump’s endorsement, boosting his standing with Ohio voters overnight. Trump's appointment sealed the deal for Vance and sets the stage for what might happen in other primary races ahead of November. Based on today's victory, Trump's influence on the Republican party looks set to take precedence in both 2022 and 2024.

 

NEWS WRAP

End of Roe v. Wade?

  • Leaked Supreme Court draft opinion could overturn Roe | A draft majority opinion, penned by Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito, says, "Roe and Casey must be overruled." While far from a final, formal majority opinion, it indicates the court intended to vote in favour of the anti-abortion Mississippi law in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. READ MORE HERE
     

  • Trump's endorsement seals the deal for Vance | In Ohio's Republican Senate primary, former President Trump's endorsement of JD Vance, best known for authoring Hillbilly Elegy helped him secure a victory as Senator Rob Portman's potential replacement. Vance will face off against Democratic Congressman Tim Ryan in a state won by Trump by eight points in 2020. READ MORE HERE
     

  • Pelosi concludes secret visit to Ukraine | Speaker Nancy Pelosi has concluded a secret visit to Ukraine this weekend, becoming the highest-ranking US official to visit the war-ravaged country since the Russian invasion began in February. The group met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other top officials in Kyiv, the country’s capital. READ MORE HERE
     

  • White House correspondents’ dinner returns | The US President and the jokes were back at the White House correspondents’ dinner in Washington last weekend. Joe Biden poked fun at his slumping poll ratings, took sly digs at predecessor ­Donald Trump and accepted a roasting from Daily Show host Trevor Noah at the glitzy party mixing Washington politics, media and Hollywood. READ MORE HERE
     

  • Direct Sydney to New York flights | Qantas has unveiled details of the ultra-long-haul aircraft it plans to run on non-stop flights from Sydney and Melbourne to New York by the end of 2025. The wide-body planes will be able to carry 238 passengers and will feature “wellbeing zones” for passengers to move about in the cabin as a way to break up the ultra-long-haul flights that will reach up to 20 hours. READ MORE HERE

 

VIDEO

Resilience, relationships and rules: Australian foreign policy in an uncertain world

The United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney hosted an address by Senator the Hon Marise Payne, Minister for Foreign Affairs. On the eve of the 70th anniversary of the ANZUS Treaty entering into force, Minister Payne spoke on Australian foreign policy in an uncertain world. She shared remarks, followed by Q&A with incoming-CEO Dr Mike Green.

Catch more analysis on the United States on the USSC YouTube channel.

 

WEBINAR | 10 MAY

Congress, the White House and democracy at a crossroads: A conversation with Larry Sabato

As we approach the November midterm elections, Joe Biden's presidency, the control of Congress and the future course of America's democracy are all at a crossroads. What is the outlook for both parties in the midterms, and what is at stake for President Biden and the balance of his first ​term? What are the prospects for a Republican-controlled Congress and what will be their agenda? What could all this mean for the 2024 presidential and congressional elections? What should Australians look for as the United States votes?

To discuss these issues, please join us for a United States Studies Centre webinar featuring Dr Larry Sabato, one of America's most distinguished political scientists and founder and director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics in conversation with USSC's Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe and Research Associate Victoria Cooper.

WHEN:
SYDNEY | Tuesday, 10 May 2022 | 11:00am-12:00pm AEST
WASHINGTON DC | Monday, 9 May 2022 | 9-10:00pm EDT

COST:
Free but registration is essential.

You can also subscribe to have event invitations and reminders sent straight to your inbox, so you never have to miss an event!

REGISTER NOW
 

A special thanks to the 42 per cent of you who actually applauded. I’m really excited to be here tonight with the only group of Americans with a lower approval rating than I have.

President Biden at White House Correspondents' Dinner | 30 April 2022

 

ANALYSIS

The white-haired risk to US democracy

Victoria Cooper, Research Associate

Young Americans have given up on politics. Not to sound too much like my fellow young folk, but this isn’t exactly tea (or, ‘new news’, for the boomers at the back).

At first glance, it’s obvious that young Americans don’t see themselves in their white-haired representatives. The 117th Congress is the oldest in US history, with more than a dozen octogenarians and an average age of 59. There’s only one representative across the whole Congress born in the 1990s.

The age gap is not a new phenomenon. What’s novel is just how out of touch both parties appear to young Americans. This week the Harvard Institute of Politics (HIOP) revealed in its 43rd biannual polling that a plurality of the 18- to 29-year-olds surveyed think President Biden (37 per cent), the Democrats (39 per cent) and the Republicans (51 per cent) are more inclined to care about the interests of the elite than people like them.

In one poll after another, young Americans say that addressing climate change should be a top priority and think the US government isn’t doing enough. They are also seriously concerned about their country’s mental health ‘crisis’ and the economy. They think education is more important to America’s future global strength than the military.

Yet Congress has largely failed to deliver on any of these fronts, with much of the Biden administration’s lofty ambitions on everything from climate change to health care locked in the jaws of Democrats’ in-fighting; plans to cancel student loan debt (now averaging nearly US$40,000 per graduate) also hangs in the balance.

 

This is an excerpt from a commentary written by Research Associate Victoria Cooper.

READ MORE HERE
 

BY THE NUMBERS

Interest rate hikes to combat inflation

In efforts to combat raising inflation and cost of living pressures, both the US Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia have announced increases to their interest rates. While in the United States, the rate was last increased in 2018, in Australia the announcement yesterday marked the first rate increase in more than 11 years. The US Federal Reserve is expected to raise US interest rates by another half percentage point again tomorrow after it had approved a 0.25 per cent increase earlier in March.

READ MORE BY THE NUMBERS ANALYSIS HERE
 

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University of Sydney NSW 2006

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The United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney is a university-based research centre, dedicated to the rigorous analysis of American foreign policy, economics, politics and culture. The Centre is a national resource, that builds Australia’s awareness of the dynamics shaping America — and critically — their implications for Australia.

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