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13 April
US life expectancy falls fast
US life expectancy dropped for the second year in a row, according to a new study that also suggested low vaccination rates and reduced pandemic precautions may have driven the continued decline. Over the two years of the pandemic, US life expectancy saw a net loss of 2.26 years bringing the estimated life span in 2021 to 76.6 years – down from 76.99 in 2020 and 78.86 in 2019. The study was published on the preprint server medRxiv, which means it has not been peer-reviewed.
With a brief exception in the summer of 2021, COVID-19 has consistently been one of the top three causes of death for the past two years in the United States, an analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation shows.
The estimated overall drop in US life expectancy for 2021 was driven almost entirely by increased deaths in the white population, according to a study author. The 2021 drop also widened the gap in life expectancy between the United States and other wealthy countries, and researchers attributed this to lower US vaccination rates. Life expectancy only dropped by about a half a year in 2020 in countries like England, France and Germany, and then actually increased by about a third of a year in 2021, according to the analysis.
The United States rapidly approaches one million deaths due to the pandemic, while in Australia, cases continue to soar as New South Wales recorded one million COVID-19 cases in under two months meaning 12 per cent of the state have tested positive in only 75 days. With new subvariants leading to surges across the globe, it is clear these grim markers do not signify the end of the pandemic.
NEWS WRAP
Biden calls out 'genocide' in Ukraine
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Caroline Kennedy reveals Australian priorities | Former US ambassador to Japan - and daughter of former US president John F Kennedy - Caroline Kennedy has told the US Senate what her top priorities would be as US ambassador to Australia. Ms Kennedy identified key issues ranging from China and AUKUS, to climate change and strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific. READ MORE HERE
COVID-19 cases hit Washington's political elite | More than a dozen guests who attended the prestigious Gridiron Club dinner in Washington last week have tested positive for COVID-19 causing concern among high-ranking officials who are restarting their traditional political social whirl after a two-year pause. Adam B. Schiff (Democrat from California), Joaquin Castro (Democrat from Texas), Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and Attorney General Merrick Garland announced they were positive. READ MORE HERE
Suspect identified for New York subway shooting | Police in New York City say they have a suspect in relation to an attack on a rush-hour subway train in Brooklyn in which at least 10 people were shot. This attack follows the Biden-Harris administration announcing six initial actions to address the gun violence public health epidemic one year ago. READ MORE HERE
[Australia has] stood firm and I think they've managed to come together with a bipartisan foreign policy, and I think a greater and deeper partnership with us in the security and diplomatic areas — as well as across the board — will serve their country and our country well
Caroline Kennedy in front of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee | 7 April 2022
ANALYSIS
2024 presidential candidates compared
Dr Shaun Ratcliff and Sarah Hamilton
Honorary Associate and former Research Associate at USSC
One year after the 2020 presidential election, Democratic presidential candidates maintain a small advantage in public support with both American and Australian audiences.
USSC tested presidential vote intentions by providing US respondents with three head-to-head electoral contests that randomly paired one of three potential Republicans versus one of three potential Democratic candidates for the 2024 presidential election. Despite the steadily declining approval rating of Democratic President Joe Biden - now lower at this point in his first term than any other modern president, except Donald Trump - most respondents still preferred the Democratic candidate, regardless of which Republican they faced. However, in most scenarios the margin was small.
Overall, there is little partisan movement from the November 2020 presidential election. Ninety-nine per cent of respondents who voted for Donald Trump at the 2020 presidential election said they intend to vote Republican in 2024, even if Florida Governor Ron DeSantis or former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley replaced Donald Trump as the candidate. Similarly, almost all (97 per cent) of those who voted for Biden in November 2020 still planned to vote for a Democrat in 2024, even if the head of the ticket was replaced with Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren.
Trump remains the preferred candidate for the 2024 presidential election for 95 per cent of Republicans. While the House Select Committee on the January 6 attack continues to close in on Trump’s inner circle, he still appears to be the Republican favourite for 2024. In general, voter sentiment about the Republican Party, and the former president himself, has recovered from prior lows.
Despite President Biden’s falling approval rating and Trump’s post-election sentiment recovery, more American voters still prefer a Democratic presidential candidate, regardless of which Republican they faced.
Despite the apparent preference for Democratic candidates, in most scenarios the margin was small. In seven of the nine possible scenarios, the Democratic candidate was estimated to win the two-party popular vote. The exceptions to this were Elizabeth Warren versus Donald Trump, and Kamala Harris against Nikki Haley. In both cases, the Republican candidate’s lead was not statistically significant, suggesting caution in inferring too much from these results. In most scenarios, the Democratic lead was also often small and within the margin of error.
This is an excerpt from Ratcliff and Hamilton's contribution to the Centre's State of the United States report published in March 2022
BY THE NUMBERS
Life expectancy changes from 2019-2021
US life expectancy dropped for the second year in a row, according to a new study published in medRxiv and the authors suggest that low vaccination rates and reduced pandemic precautions may have driven the continued decline. While US life expectancy declined by 2.26 years from 78.8 in 2019 to 76.6 in 2021, countries with higher vaccination rates experienced dips, but on a much smaller scale.
Life expectancy in England and Wales dropped to 80.8 years in 2020 from 81.7 years in 2019 but rose back to 81.0 years in 2021. The average life expectancy for New Zealanders was 82.0 in 2021, a fall from 2020 (82.3 years) but a rise from 81.6 years in 2019.
VIDEO
Caroline Kennedy's US ambassador role in Australia | Stephen Loosley
The US Studies Centre’s Stephen Loosley has praised the nomination of Caroline Kennedy to be US Ambassador to Australia as “very important” for both nations.
Ms Kennedy hails from American political royalty, as the daughter of former US President John F. Kennedy and Jackie Kennedy. Although Ms Kennedy struggled to answer questions on AUKUS and the role of China in the Indo-Pacific at a US Senate hearing, Mr Loosley conceded her performance was “fine”.
“Her track record is very impressive … her political judgement is outstanding,” Mr Loosley said. "She is a very effective operator in the American system, she has considerable skills beyond politics. The Kennedy name retains magic in American politics, and that’s a reality.”
Catch more analysis on the United States on the USSC YouTube channel.
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Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006
