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23 March
Australia to follow US Space Force example?
Defence Minister Peter Dutton told the United States Studies Centre (USSC) last week at the launch of our second-annual State of the United States report, the “prophesied ‘End of History’ has turned out to be a ‘Return to History’”.
With the minister’s launch of Australia’s first ever Defence Space Command this week, his comments to the USSC about history proved timely. After all, the focus on the stars harkens back to President John F. Kennedy’s storied moon-shot ambitions. In 1961, President Kennedy famously announced that the United States would endeavour to land a man on the moon and return him to earth by the end of the decade. On 20 July, 1969, the entire world watched – thanks to Australian assistance – as Apollo 11 fulfilled Kennedy’s ambition.
Yet Kennedy’s ambitions for the “new frontier” did not begin or end in space. Before his famous goal to “go to the moon in this decade”, Kennedy spoke of a broader frontier at the Democratic National Convention in 1960 saying, “we must prove all over again to a watching world, as we said on a most conspicuous stage, whether this nation, conceived as it is with its freedom of choice, its breadth of opportunity, its range of alternatives, can compete with the single-minded advance of the Communist system.”
Such remarks reverberated when President Biden went off script after a speech – which was largely focused on US efforts supporting Ukraine – to say the world at large is at “an inflection point” that “occurs every three or four generations.” President Biden posited that “now is a time when things are shifting…there’s going to be a new world order out there, and we’ve got to lead it and we’ve got to unite the rest of the free world in doing it.”
It is clear the United States is not, and cannot be, alone in its efforts leading the free world. Australia’s space ambitions do not merely support US ambitions, they also support allied objectives and interests of the free world in, what Kennedy called, “this frontier at a turning-point of history”
NEWS WRAP
US army joins Marines in Darwin
US military boost for Australia | Hundreds of US Army personnel will be deployed to Darwin, joining the annual US Marine rotational force for the first time. The 2022 force will be comprised of about 2,200 military personnel. Meanwhile, US Indo-Pacific commander Admiral John C. Aquilino revealed this week that China has fully militarised at least three of several islands it built in the South China Sea, arming them with anti-ship, anti-aircraft missile systems and fighter jets. READ MORE HERE
Biden meets world leaders in Europe | President Biden and several other world leaders hope to unveil a package of new measures to punish Russia, help Ukraine and demonstrate Western unity following a string of emergency summits in Europe this week. Russia’s attack has forced nearly 10 million people in Ukraine to flee their homes. READ MORE HERE
Fed rises rate first time since 2018 | The US Federal Reserve hiked interest rates for the first time since December 2018 as the US central bank moves to stem the pain of rising inflation. The increase was just 25 basis points, but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell projected that the interest rate would hit between 1.75 per cent and 2 per cent by the end of 2022. READ MORE HERE
Clarence Thomas admitted to hospital | Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas was admitted to a Washington hospital late last week "after experiencing flu-like symptoms" though the court's public information office said he did not have COVID-19. The Supreme Court is also front of mind as the Senate Judiciary Committee commences high-profile confirmation hearings for Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson, the first Black woman ever nominated to the US Supreme Court. READ MORE HERE
Australia to launch Space Force | Defence Minister Peter Dutton flagged the possibility of Australia developing a US-style Space Force in the future. Justification for the new program was partly put down to recent hostile acts by Russia and the rapid advancement of Chinese military capability. READ MORE HERE
Your report gives a realistic assessment of the administration's limitations - they are real. They remind us that the US is no longer the sun god, it's not the omnipotent great power that's going to solve all problems and give us what we need. The US is a limping giant trying to stay upright. We have to do more for ourselves.
Remarks by Sydney Morning Herald Political and Foreign Affairs editor Peter Hartcher at USSC SOTUS Conference | 16 March 2022
ANALYSIS
US more divided than anytime since the civil war
Professor Simon Jackman
CEO United States Studies Centre
US President Joe Biden came to office more than a year ago promising to “build back better”, declaring America was back and returning to its role as the leader of the democratic world. How’s that working out? And not just for the US but for Australia?
On Wednesday the US Studies Centre [released] its annual State of the United States report, providing assessments based on survey research, trade and investment data, historical comparisons and consultations across our networks spanning the US political and policy establishment, but with a particular focus on implications for Australian interests.
Like the Biden administration, the US sits at a delicate moment. COVID continues to ravage the US with a per capita death toll more than four times seen elsewhere across the G20. Inflation and crime are back at the top of the US domestic political agenda, issues not experienced at such levels since the 1970s. Biden’s approval rating languishes at Trump-like levels, the bulk of his legislative agenda is stalled and Republicans are all but assured of taking the House of Representatives in midterm elections in November.
Still, the Biden administration has enjoyed success. More than 200 million Americans have been vaccinated against COVID-19. Record numbers of new jobs and economic growth followed the passage of a US$1.9 trillion ($2.65 trillion) COVID recovery package and Democrats legislated a US$1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill. A 40 per cent reduction in child poverty is one of the legacies of the COVID relief measures. Biden took the United States back into international climate change forums but has been, and will be, unable to secure legislation to help meet emissions targets. And critically for Australian interests, under Biden we saw the announcement of the AUKUS security pact and an expansion and deepening of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue’s remit.
For now, the United States and the Biden administration are managing the Ukraine crisis as well as they can, rallying the democratic world with sanctions and military aid.
But of more consequence are trends we identify within the United States, which are confronting for all democratic allies of America and especially Australia. Quite simply, the United States is a house divided and partisan disagreements run deeper than ever measured. We must reach back to the Depression or the Civil War to find periods of US history where the country has been more divided. Isolationism is at levels unseen in 70 years of scientifically rigorous survey research.
Sixty per cent of Americans say their nation’s “best days are in the past”, with even 40 per cent of Biden voters agreeing – roughly the same levels Democrats recorded during Donald Trump’s presidency. America’s levels of polarisation leave Australia’s division in the shade.
This is an excerpt from an article published by The Australian
WEBINAR | 23 March
NATO Expert Talk Series: NATO and the challenges to the rules-based international order
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and brazen aggression represent the worst military aggression in Europe for decades. It is also the most blatant breach of international law and state sovereignty on the European continent in a generation, which has, in turn, highlighted the importance of NATO’s core task of defence and deterrence. The aftermaths of the 24 February invasion will have irrevocable consequences for transatlantic security and priorities. Yet, even before this, there were multiple growing challenges to the existing security architecture and institutions that were set up in the wake of the Second World War.
What challenges and threats is NATO facing given the current security crisis on their eastern border? How will this impact the upcoming release of the new Strategic Concept? How can these issues be addressed both at the level of the Alliance and in cooperation with partner countries, such as Australia?
To discuss these issues, please join us for a webinar event with NATO's Head of Engagements Mr Nicola de Santis in conversation with United States Studies Centre's Senior Lecturer in US Politics and Foreign Policy Dr Gorana Grgic.
WHEN:
SYDNEY | Wednesday, 23 March 2022 | 6:00-7:00pm AEDT BRUSSELS | Wednesday, 23 March 2022 | 8:00-9:00am CET
COST:
Free but registration is essential.
You can also subscribe to have event invitations and reminders sent straight to your inbox, so you never have to miss an event!
BY THE NUMBERS | STATE OF THE UNITED STATES
Pessimism in the US
In USSC’s December 2021 survey, the proportion of Americans reporting that “America’s best days are in the past” rose to 60 per cent, comfortably more than a majority viewpoint, and an increase of about 15 percentage points, or a third, from July 2019. This rise is not just a sour grapes response on the part of Trump voters, with 75 per cent of them giving the “best days in the past” response. Democrats have become more pessimistic even while they have a Democratic president, with almost 50 per cent providing the “in the past” response, their pessimism rising to levels they were reporting when Trump was president in USSC’s 2019 and 2020 surveys.
This is adapted from Pessimism about America's future by Prof Simon Jackman in this year's State of the United States report.
VIDEO
NATO Expert Talks | The global challenge: Building resilient citizens in an age of disinformation
The United States Studies Centre and the NATO Public Diplomacy Division present joint NATO Expert Talks. NATO and Australia relations date back over a decade with Australia being one of the most important contributors to NATO’s missions and operations. Today, NATO and Australia face a new set of global security challenges — from systemic competition, authoritarian powers and non-state actors — that challenge the rules-based order. These occur through cyber threats and the malicious use of new technologies, as well as, other asymmetric threats.
This first panel discussion brought together NATO Assistant Secretary General for Public Diplomacy Ambassador Baiba Braže and USSC Non-Resident Fellow Dr Jennifer Hunt to explore how disinformation and propaganda, pursued by state and non-state actors, aims to erode the trust and credibility of democratic institutions and systems. The discussion was moderated by USSC Lecturer and NATO Defense College Partners Across the Globe Fellow Dr Gorana Grgic.
Catch more analysis on the United States on the USSC YouTube channel.
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United States Studies Centre
Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006
