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Iran, Russia and the aspirational 'peacemaker-in-chief'
4 February 2026
The United States has entered into talks with Iran to attempt to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities while still building up a “massive armada” in the region. President Trump has warned that if a resolution is not agreed, “probably bad things would happen.”
The US intervention comes in response to the thousands of anti-government protesters who have been killed. The estimated number of deaths varies greatly with the Iranian government acknowledging more than 3,000 protesters have been killed, while activist groups say the number is more than 30,000. Protesters in Iran are pleading for US intervention and writing, “President Trump please help” on walls around the country.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned that any US strike may trigger a “regional war” and has renewed threats to strike Israel should Iran be attacked. On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded to these threats saying Israel was “ready for any scenario.”
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is in the Middle East for negotiations with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to try and de-escalate the situation. Witkoff is juggling these negotiations with his efforts to end the Ukraine conflict. While trilateral talks to end the war with Ukraine are planned in Abu Dhabi this week, Russia attacked energy facilities in Ukraine, despite President Trump asking Russian President Vladimir Putin for a temporary pause in attacks.
As the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the fate of the Donetsk region is the “one remaining item” in peace negotiations. Ukraine still controls Donetsk, but since the peace talks started this has been a core demand of Russia. Rubio has said “it’s still a bridge we have to cross,” but he did not clarify what options would be on the table for the talks in Abu Dhabi. As the latest drop of the Epstein files and ongoing ICE protests make waves in the United States, President Trump’s attention is once again pulled to international issues as he seeks to secure a legacy as “peacemaker-in-chief”.
Mari Koeck
Director of Engagement and Impact
Lead photo: Demonstrators, protesting the deadly crackdown in Iran, rally near the White House in Washington DC, on 17 January 2026 (photo by Amid Farahi via Getty Images).
"Right now, we're talking to them, we're talking to Iran, and if we could work something out, that'd be great. And if we can't, probably bad things would happen."
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Upcoming events
PUBLIC FORUM
Australia-Taiwan relations: What are the policy options and priorities for engagement?
Join us for the launch of a USSC major report on the Australia-Taiwan relationship, examining its scope, limits, and opportunities across the economic, diplomatic and defence domains.
Panellists:
- Rachel Noble PSM, former Director General, Australian Signals Directorate
- Professor Nick Bisley, Pro Vice-Chancellor (Research) and Professor of International Relations, La Trobe University
- Professor Caitlin Byrne, Pro Vice Chancellor (Business), Griffith University
- Professor Peter Dean, Senior Adviser for Defence Strategy, United States Studies Centre and Professor of Strategic Studies, Australian National University
Moderated by Professor Bec Strating, Director of the La Trobe Centre for Global Security and Professor of International Relations, La Trobe University.
5 February 2026
5:30-8:00pm AEDTAustralian National University, Canberra Theatre 2 (T2), Upper Level, Lowitja O'Donoghue Cultural Centre, Tangney Rd, Acton ACT 2601
Cost: Free, but registration is essential
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