No images? Click here
Summary
The outlook for November 2026 to January 2027 is for above median rainfall for the South West Land Division (SWLD). The wetter outlook is partly associated with warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, which can provide additional moisture to spring and summer weather systems. Both daytime and night-time temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal for November 2026 to January 2027 and December 2026 to February 2027 (summer).
Recent conditions
Rainfall across the SWLD was average to below average in October. However, rainfall during the last week of October and into November has delayed harvest in some locations.
October maximum temperatures were average to above average, while minimum temperatures were average across the SWLD.
The soft finish to the season resulted in considerably fewer days above 30°C during August to October than the 2000–25 average across most of the SWLD. DPIRD weather station Buntine West recorded 9 fewer days above 30°C than average. The highest temperature recorded was 38.4°C at Binnu. In contrast, some parts of the SWLD experienced more nights below 2°C than the 2000–25 average, with Wickepin North recording 24 more nights below 2°C than average. The lowest temperature recorded was -6.6°C at Wickepin North.
Sea surface temperatures across much of the Australian region are forecast to warm over the coming months, particularly to Australia's west and in the Coral Sea. Warmer ocean temperatures can enhance atmospheric moisture and energy, potentially fuelling storms and rain systems and increasing the risk of high-intensity rainfall.
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has established in the Indian Ocean and is likely to decay in December with the onset of the Australian monsoon. As the positive IOD has developed late in the year, it is unlikely to significantly influence rainfall or temperatures in the SWLD.
The El Niño in the Pacific Ocean is forecast to persist until autumn 2027. An El Niño over spring/summer can increase bushfire risk, increase the number of heatwaves, while reducing the number of tropical cyclones.
- Global climate models generally have lower skill during summer (December to February), when localised thunderstorms are more common. These thunderstorms are difficult to forecast as their small spatial scale is finer than the grid resolution of global climate models
Outlook summary
Rainfall summary
Rainfall from April to October 2026 was variable across the SWLD. The Bureau’s weather station at Walpole has recorded 956 mm of rain (decile 3), while, in contrast, the DPIRD weather station at Pindar South recorded only 138 mm (decile 4). The rainfall decile map, which compares this season’s rainfall with the 1975–2025 period, shows the variation in rainfall across the SWLD, with decile 1-3 for the majority of the SWLD and decile 8-9 for South East Coastal forecast district.
Figure 1. Rainfall (mm) totals for 1 April to 31 October 2026 in the SWLD. Walpole recorded the highest total of 956 mm and the lowest total was Pindar South with 138 mm.
Figure 2. Rainfall decile map for 1 April to 31 October 2026 in the SWLD, indicating decile 1-3 for half of the SWLD.
Number of nights below 2°C in August-October
The number of nights below 2°C provides an indication of frost risk. These maps are generated using data from 332 Bureau of Meteorology and 175 DPIRD stations. Both sets of weather stations measure air temperature in a shaded enclosure (usually a Stevenson Screen) at a height of approximately 1.2 m above the ground. A temperature of 2°C at 1.2 m is equivalent to 0°C at ground level, which is cold enough to cause significant damage to cereal crops.
In August to October 2026, the DPIRD weather station at Wickepin North had the highest number of nights below 2°C, with 40 which is 24 more nights than the 2000-25 average. This station also recorded the lowest minimum at -6.6 °C. The Bureau weather station at Southern Cross had 10 nights less than the average.
Figure 3. Difference in the number of nights below 2°C in August to October 2026 from the 2000-25 average for the SWLD. Wickepin North had 24 nights more, while Southern Cross had 10 nights less than the average.
Number of days above 30°C in August-October
During flowering, high temperatures can severely affect crop yield with high temperatures reducing pollen fertility and grain or pod development. Highest temperature recorded in August to October was at the DPIRD weather station at Binnu with 38.4°C, the most number of days above 30°C was 16 days recorded at Yuna NE. In general, there were less days above 30°C than average, with Buntine West 10 days less than the average, and Ravensthorpe 4 more days than the average.
Figure 4. Difference in the number of days above 30°C in August to October 2026 from the 2000-25 average for the SWLD. Ravensthorpe had 4 days more, while Buntine West had 10 days less than the average.
French and Schultz potential yield
The potential yield map uses seasonal rainfall and decile finishes, calculated from historical data, to determine the maximum possible wheat yield under ideal conditions, without any other constraints, including water logging. This map is a valuable tool in the seasonal decision-making. Potential wheat yield is estimated using the French and Schultz potential yield model, which is expressed as:
Yield (tonnes/ha) = WUE * (stored soil water + growing season rainfall - evaporation)
WUE stands for water use efficiency, and growing season rainfall is measured from April to October. The stored soil water at the start of the growing season is estimated as one-third of the summer rainfall.
The map generated utilises rainfall data from 1 April to 31 October, with a WUE value of 20 kg/ha/mm and evaporation rate of 110 mm. The lowest yield potential is 1.2 t/ha at Broomehill, Kukerin and Gnowangerup and the highest is 9.1 t/ha at Coomalbidgup (Esperance shire). You can use DPIRD’s potential yield tool to select up to 507 locations and change the WUE and evaporation values in the calculation to suit your farm averages.
Figure 5. Potential yield map using rainfall up to 31 October 2026 for the SWLD. This map uses French and Shultz calculation using water use efficiency of 20 kg/ha/mm and evaporation of 110 mm. The lowest yield potential is 1.2 t/ha at Broomehill, Kukerin and Gnowangerup.
Agri-Climate Australia Network (AgCAN)
The University of Southern Queensland has developed the Agri-Climate Australia Network (AgCAN), which provides information to help producers understand current climate conditions, including the ongoing El Niño, and make better use of seasonal forecasts. The latest information from AgCAN highlights that a strong El Niño does not automatically result in severe impacts and that different climate forecasts may sometimes provide differing outlooks. For more information about the program, please contact climate.weather@dpird.wa.gov.au.
Seasonal forecasts are decision-support tools designed to help producers understand how climate-related risks may change and consider actions that could be worthwhile if conditions develop as indicated. They are not intended to tell us exactly what will happen, but rather to help inform decisions such as feed planning and supplementation, stocking rates, drought preparedness, lambing and calving preparation, pasture management, water planning, the timing of mustering and livestock handling, and heat stress preparation. Climate information is most useful when combined with local knowledge, including current paddock conditions, available feed reserves, water availability, livestock condition, enterprise goals and local experience. A rainfall outlook alone cannot determine how long feed or water supplies will last, so forecasts should be considered alongside an understanding of the property and business. As forecasts can change when new information becomes available, AgCAN also recommends reviewing them regularly rather than relying on a single forecast issued several months earlier.
Rainfall outlooks
Three-month and single-month rainfall outlooks are derived from a range of national and international climate models. The outlooks are presented as the probability of rainfall being below, above, or neutral relative to the median rainfall. (Note: A neutral outlook suggests that extreme wet or dry events are less likely, and a wide range of rainfall amounts remains possible). To provide a more localised perspective, the SWLD has been divided into 2 regions, allowing for tailored rainfall outlooks specific to each area.
Figure 6. Rainfall outlooks are in 2 sections based on location in the SWLD ̶ the first group includes Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts, while the second group covers the Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts.
Rainfall outlooks for the Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts of the SWLD
Single-month
A summary of 14 national and international climate models shows that 12 models indicate above median rainfall for November 2026. This model consensus continues into December 2026. For January, February and March 2027, models indicate a neutral chance of exceeding median rainfall. A neutral chance does not mean average rainfall is expected; a wide range of rainfall amounts remains possible, although extreme wet or dry events are less likely. There is no model consensus for April 2027. It is important to note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Figure 7. Single-month model summaries of rainfall outlooks for the Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts of the SWLD up to December 2026. Model consensus is for above median rainfall for November and December 2026. Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Figure 8. Single-month model summaries of rainfall outlooks for the Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts of the SWLD up to April 2027. Model consensus is for neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall for January, February and March 2027. Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Three-month
A summary of 17 national and international climate models indicates that 12 models show above median rainfall for November 2026 to January 2027. There is no model consensus for December 2026 to February 2027. Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Figure 9. Three-month model summaries of rainfall outlooks for the Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts of the SWLD up to above median rainfall for November 2026 to January 2027. Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Rainfall outlooks for the Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts of the SWLD
Single-month
A summary of 14 national and international climate models shows that 12 models indicate above median rainfall for November 2026. This model consensus continues into December 2026. For February 2027, the models indicate a neutral chance of exceeding median rainfall. A neutral chance does not mean average rainfall is expected. A wide range of rainfall amounts remains possible, although extreme wet or dry events are less likely. There is no model consensus for rainfall in January, March and April 2027. It is important to note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Figure 10. Single-month model summaries of rainfall for the Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts of the SWLD up to December 2026. Model consensus is for above median rainfall for November and December 2026. Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Figure 11. Single-month model summaries of rainfall for the Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts of the SWLD up to April 2027. There is no model consensus for January, March and April 2027 rainfall, and neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall model consensus for February 2027. Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Three-month
A summary of 17 national and international models shows that 12 models indicate above median rainfall for November 2026 to January 2027. There is no model consensus for December 2026 to February 2027. Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Figure 12. Three-month model summaries of rainfall outlooks for the Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts of the SWLD up to December 2026 to February 2027. Model consensus is for above median rainfall for November 2026 to January 2027. Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Important disclaimer
The Chief Executive Officer of the Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development and the State of Western Australia accept no liability whatsoever by reason of negligence or otherwise arising from the use or release of this information or any part of it.
Copyright © State of Western Australia (Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development), 2026
