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27 September 2023
The GOP gets ready to rumble
By Victoria Cooper, Research Editor
The stage for the second Republican presidential debate is set, with seven of the eight candidates from the first debate ready to duke it out again on Wednesday night, US time. But the pursuant drama and witty sparring in this next debate could well be overshadowed by a number of other showdowns happening between Republicans.
Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy faces another week of tumult as the House leader attempts to advance must-pass spending bills and avoid a vote of no confidence from members of his own party. With the clock to government shutdown on 1 October fast running out, the Senate unveiled a bipartisan plan for a continuing resolution that would see the government funded to Thanksgiving and might win over hard-right House Republicans with pared back funding for Ukraine. The resolution is a risky strategy though, requiring the support of all 100 senators to speed the bill through the Senate this week despite no certainty that it will have enough support to pass the House.
Meanwhile, 2024 Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump was found liable for financial fraud by exaggerating his net worth to broker deals and attract financing. The partial summary judgement by Judge Arthur Engoron will dramatically shorten the trial of a New York state civil lawsuit, pursued by New York Attorney General Letitia James, due to start trial next week. Engoron additionally cancelled the New York business certificates of companies owned by Trump and two of his sons, marking a major setback for the former president’s real estate business in the state.
It’s not hard going for just Republicans though with Democrat Senator Robert Menendez and his wife facing charges for federal bribery and corruption. So far, the senator has refused to resign and his party is split in their response, with over a third of his Democratic Senate colleagues calling for his resignation and still others, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, defending Menendez until he faces trial.
NEWS WRAP
Competition ramps up in the Pacific and the 50 states
- Biden hosts Pacific Islands leaders | In the second meeting of its kind in a year, President Biden hosted 18 Pacific Islands leaders to strengthen and highlight US ties to the region. Biden announced the beginning of formal diplomatic relations with Niue and the Cook Islands, with these new steps adding to the administration’s diplomatic
efforts in the region as US-China competition intensifies. READ MORE HERE
- Michigan on the mind | With both 2024 election frontrunners appearing eager to prove their devotion to blue-collar workers, Michigan will see two high-calibre visits this week. President Biden joined the United Auto Workers strike at General Motors in Detroit a day before Donald Trump had planned to visit. Both leaders have won the state once before, with Trump in 2016 becoming the first Republican to carry Michigan since 1988, and Biden reclaiming the state for Democrats in 2020. READ MORE HERE
- Biden’s son claims “total annihilation” of privacy | The president’s son, Hunter Biden, has sued Rudy Giuliani for the “total annihilation” of his digital privacy, alleging Giuliani attempted to use his laptop and personal data for political purposes. Both Giuliani and Biden face extensive legal trouble, with Hunter Biden seemingly now on the offensive – this being the latest in a suite of lawsuits – as his father faces House impeachment investigations. READ MORE HERE
- End scene for Hollywood strike | After 148 days on strike, television and movie writers aligned with the Writers Guild of America are expected to end their historic strike, reaching a tentative three-year contract agreement with Hollywood studios. Since May, approximately 11,500 members took to striking seeking better pay and job security amid threats from new technologies like artificial intelligence. READ MORE HERE
"Like our forebearers during World War Two, we know that a great deal of the history of our world will be written across the Pacific over the coming years. And like them, we owe it to the next generation to help write that story together..."
President Biden remarks before Pacific Islands leaders | 25 September 2023
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
Did you USSC?
- EXPLAINER | AUKUS status update: Checking in on the advancement of Pillar II
Research Associates Tom Barrett and Sophie Mayo look at the progress made on the other half of the AUKUS agreement - the eight areas of advanced technology and development that make up Pillar II. READ MORE HERE
- PODCAST | Technology and Security (TS) podcast
In the latest episode of TS, Director of Emerging Technology, Miah Hammond-Errey sits down with Kara Hinesley, Canva's global Head of Public Policy and Government Affairs, to discuss her experience at Twitter after the livestreamed 2019 terrorist attack in New Zealand, the complex relationship between artists and AI, as well as what differentiates Australian and American tech companies and culture. LISTEN TO THE EPISODE
- PODCAST | USSC Briefing Room | Launch of Women in the Alliance
Research Editor Victoria Cooper brings to you a special podcast episode to celebrate the launch of the USSC's Women in the Alliance (WITA) initiative. The episode features a live panel discussion with pioneering women in the Australia-US relationship and gives more information about the initiative, including the inaugural network. LISTEN TO THE EPISODE
LATEST UPDATES | Before the next Republican presidential debate, be sure to check out our analysis of the 'other' candidates and their positions on Australia and the world. Research Associates Samuel Garrett and Ava Kalinauskas regularly update the tracker to include the latest developments, spanning the full gambit of foreign policy issues from trade and alliances to China and climate change.
EVENT
UPSCALE report launch
We are excited to launch a new United States Studies Centre (USSC) major report – UPSCALE: Using Private Sector Capital for the Alliance.
Drawing lessons from the US experience, this report tackles the pressing issue of how to finance Australia's national security capabilities. It includes policy recommendations to address the challenges faced by Australian small and medium enterprise, private equity and venture capital, and government.
USSC CEO, Dr Michael J. Green, will host the event featuring a keynote address by Mr Doug Beck, dialling in virtually from the United States. Mr Beck is the Director of the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU), part of the US Department of Defense. The DIU targets the adoption of commercial technology for military purposes. Mr Beck was previously Vice President at Apple and is a Captain in the US Navy Reserve.
Following the keynote address, join ABC's defence correspondent, Mr Andrew Greene, for a discussion and Q&A with UPSCALE report authors, Ms Hayley Channer and Dr John Kunkel.
WHERE
Dawes Point Rooms, Pier One Sydney Harbour,
11 Hickson Road Walsh Bay, NSW 2000
WHEN
SYDNEY | 6 October 2023, 8.30am - 10am AEDT
Working breakfast provided between 08.30 - 09.00, with the keynote to commence at 09.00 sharp.
COST
Free, but spaces are strictly limited
BY THE NUMBERS
If Trump will win anyway, why debate?
By Victoria Cooper, Research Editor
When it comes to the Republication presidential debates, it appears you don’t need to be in it to win it. While he wasn’t on stage for the first debate, Donald Trump, of all the Republican candidates, has experienced the greatest bump in national polls (+3.5 per cent) since 24 August. It is a remarkable feat considering the former president had his mugshot taken the very next day.
Few other candidates have experienced any compelling change to their chances since their first showdown, according to national polling averages, with Nikki Haley being the only other candidate to gain notable ground in the last month and ‘non-Trump’ pack leader Ron DeSantis slowly declining in popularity.
All this might lead to the question of whether these debates really accomplish much at all for the vying candidates’ chances at securing the top spot. Some might think it would be even better for the 2024 hopefuls to sit this one out and allow the remaining candidates to risk a gaffe or to weather each other’s insults (Chris Christie saying Ramaswamy “sounds like ChatGPT” was a particularly memorable blow in the first debate).
If Donald Trump is going to win the nomination anyway, or so it seems, why bother showing up for the debate at all?
Donald Trump might have an intimidating and consolidated lead over the rest of the candidates, but until voters go to ballot boxes and the other candidates withdraw, the race is not over yet. Trump’s lead in early states, like Iowa, sits beneath 50 per cent – his support amongst Republicans in these states is not quite as significant as national polls (currently above 60 per cent) would imply....
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University of Sydney NSW 2006
