No images? Click here 26 JanuaryPutin tries to trump Indo-PacificAmerica’s Indo-Pacific allies — Australia chief among them — got a stark reminder of one of the constants of contemporary international relations: that the competition for US strategic and tactical attention is global, unrelenting and filtered through US domestic politics. Ukraine is simply not a high strategic priority for the United States, but most certainly is for Putin and Russia. But after the poorly managed Afghanistan pull-out and allies seeking reassurance about US steadfastness, it would not take much for the Biden administration to be drawn into countering Putin’s designs on Ukraine. Biden’s flagging approval ratings at home — and a Biden-esque gaffe in last week’s two-hour press conference — created additional momentum towards US engagement. Biden implied that Europe and the United States may accept a “minor incursion” by Russia into Ukraine. A few days later, some 8,500 US troops are now on high alert for a possible deployment to Eastern Europe while the US Government, along with the Australian Government and others, urged their citizens to evacuate Ukraine immediately. The mobilisation of US forces is a marked escalation from the previous strategy of arming Ukraine while imposing ever more severe economic sanctions on Russia. As I told Sky News on Monday, every hour and every dollar the US spends on Ukraine is attention and resources diverted away from issues and regions of direct consequence to Australian national interests. Ukraine threatens to overshadow the long-awaited release of the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific Strategy. The critical next few weeks will set the trajectory for the administration’s actual – rather than aspirational – priorities for the year ahead. Chief among these aspirations is an economic strategy for the Indo-Pacific, with still no clarity on the administration’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. This too is especially delicate work, balancing the strategic risks accompanying China’s accretion of wealth and influence with the economic gains from trade. Indeed, new research from the US Studies Centre concludes that the conventional wisdom that US economic engagement with China has hurt the United States is flawed, according to USSC’s Dr Stephen Kirchner. He warns in his new report out this week From ‘China Shock’ to deglobalisation shock, that the “'China shock’ delivered net benefits to the US economy; while growing US economic disengagement with the rest of the world over the past 20 years poses the bigger threat to the dynamism of the US economy.” Uncertainty in the global arena now appears omnipresent. Yet some of this can surely be mitigated if the Biden administration makes clearer how it will approach the region instead of merely how it will respond to it. Sincerely, NEWS WRAPEyes on Eastern Europe
In the face of challenges brought by the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change, our friendship stands steadfast and resolute. I congratulate Australia on this occasion and wish all Australians a safe and joyous Australia Day. ANALYSISThe world's oldest democracy debates how it functionsVictoria Cooper Biden’s fiery speech in Atlanta, Georgia on 11 January saw him resuscitate his focus on protecting the “heart and soul” of American democracy in a city Biden called “a cradle of civil rights.” So, what prompted this renewed energy for voting rights? The experience of voting in the United States is starkly different to Australia, being both more difficult and more varied from one state to another. While all states have election day on a Tuesday in early November, the way voting occurs, who gets on the electoral roll and how, where polling happens, and the process of counting votes are all at the discretion of individual states. Since the November 2020 presidential election, which saw the greatest voter turnout since 1900 — 66.9 percent of eligible voters — the use of discretion by individual states is getting a lot more attention. As President Biden’s Atlanta speech outlined, recent state-led voting rights reforms saw Georgia’s state legislature, and several other Republican-led state legislatures, undermine voting rights by limiting voting access. Memorably, Georgia drew the ire of Democrats last year with the passage of its Election Integrity Act, which, among other measures, took the punitive step of preventing the distribution of food and water to voters in lengthy polling queues. While Georgia is an important case study in its recent passage of restrictive voter laws, the concern for the future of voting rights is nationwide. According to the progressive-leaning Brennan Center for Justice at the New York University Law School, all 50 US states introduced election-related bills in 2021. While 62 of these new election-related laws sought to “protect” voting rights by advancing measures that made it easier to vote, the Brennan Center has said that 34 new laws made voting more difficult in 19 states. Although many of these restrictions are concentrated in Republican-led states, one of the more misleading impressions left after Biden’s speech is that this is an issue exclusive to majority-red states. It’s not. In 2021, 12 Democratic-led states introduced bills and passed legislation considered to be "restricting" of voting rights. Even Biden’s Democrat-led home state of Delaware is by no means a model of accessible voting. Delaware has some of the most restrictive early voting and absentee ballot options in the United States, with early voting only available for 10 days before elections. The national average is 23 days. In contrast, Georgia’s Election Integrity Act expanded the time for which voters could cast ballots early and in-person to 17 days and made voting available for an additional Saturday before election day. This is an excerpt from an article first published by The Australian Institute of International Affairs BY THE NUMBERSInflation highs December 2021 saw the Consumer Price Index (CPI) grow seven per cent in the United States year on year, the highest rate since June 1982. In Australia, CPI increased by 3.5 per cent in December, the highest rate for the country since June 2014. One major area of political sensitivity is the fact that US gasoline prices of all types increased by 49.6 per cent year on year whereas in Australia fuel prices increased by 6.6 per cent. Read more By the numbers analysis here VIDEOWhat to expect in US politics and policy 2022Did you miss last weeks webinar? To kick off 2022, the United States Studies Centre hosted a webinar event with politics experts, Senior Lecturer in US Politics and Foreign Policy Dr Gorana Grgic, Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe and Senior Research Fellow Jared Mondschein in conversation with CEO Professor Simon Jackman where they discussed Biden's first year in office and what to watch for in 2022. Catch more analysis on the United States on the USSC YouTube channel. Manage your email preferences | Forward this email to a friend United States Studies Centre |