NEWS WRAP

US support for Ukraine in doubt at critical phase 

• Europe doubts US Ukraine support | As NATO members urge the United States to maintain its support for Ukraine, pressure is mounting on Congress to successfully action the White House’s proposal of US$61.4 billion of Ukraine aid. While the upcoming Senate vote on the funding is expected to succeed and the administration predicts funding will be secured by the end of the year, getting the funding proposal through the House of Representatives remains doubtful. READ MORE HERE
   

• Chauvin stabbed | Former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin was stabbed by a fellow inmate in an Arizona prison while serving his sentence for the murder of George Floyd. Floyd’s brutal treatment by Chauvin during an arrest in Minneapolis in May 2020, and subsequent death, sparked global Black Lives Matter protests and renewed attention on police brutality in the United States. READ MORE HERE
   

• Biden to skip COP28 | President Biden will not attend the COP28 climate summit in Dubai this year, with the president focused on the Israel-Hamas conflict. The president has attended the previous two summits, using his attendance in Egypt last year to tout the US passage of the Inflation Reduction Act as evidence of his administration’s efforts towards emissions reductions. READ MORE HERE
   

• Trump takes on Obamacare again | Former president Trump via Truth Social has vowed to “never give up” on replacing the Affordable Care Act (ACA), known as Obamacare. Republicans failed to repeal ACA in 2017, and the attempt to cut health insurance funding was frequently blamed for the significant Republican losses in the 2018 midterms. READ MORE HERE
   

• Retail therapy soothes cost of living concerns | American shoppers have broken previous holiday online spending records this year, spending US$12.4 billion (9.6 per cent more than last year) in the five days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday. The statistics defy uncertainty over shoppers’ willingness to spend amid cost of living concerns and high inflation. READ MORE HERE​​

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

• REPORT | Defence Industry Roundtable Series | Report on Series 2: The Defence Strategic Review and the Defence Industry Development Statement
  Foreign Policy and Defence Research Associate Sophie Mayo and Research Fellow Tom Corben unveil13 key findings from roundtable discussions with Australia's defence industry representatives on the implications of the Defence Strategic Review for Australia's defence industry. READ FULL REPORT
   
• COMMENTARY | Polls say Trump has a strong chance of winning again in 2024. So how might his second term reshape the US Government?
  As former president Trump maintains his lead in the Republican primaries, Associate Professor David Smith writes in The Conversation about the impact a second Trump term might have on the US Government. READ MORE HERE
   
• COMMENTARY | Space as a critical enabler: Australia's strategic imperative
  In The Australian, member of the USSC Board of Directors The Honourable Kim Beazley says the space domain cannot be an afterthought in Australia's warfare strategy and that Australia's space capabilities are integral to its partnership, interoperability and collective defence initiatives with the United States. READ MORE HERE
   
• PODCAST | USSC Briefing Room | Live from Sydney International Strategy Forum 2023
  This week, the USSC Briefing Room podcast is releasing a special series of recordings from the four panel discussions at the USSC's inaugural Sydney International Strategy Forum. Discussions on US-China confrontation, US politics and de-risking, disruption and emerging technology are now available. FIND MORE EPISODES

EVENT

Taiwan's upcoming election: The implications for Australia

Although global attention is focused on the upcoming US presidential election in November 2024, a key regional election looms much sooner — the Taiwanese presidential election on 13 January. The contest to succeed the term-limited President Tsai Ing-Wen has already seen intrigue and drama, with four candidates vying for Taiwan’s highest office and, at one stage, two of them mulling a joint bid to unseat the ruling Democratic Progressive Party. Frontrunner and current vice president William Lai's views on independence have been the source of much discussion and, with high tensions in the Taiwan Strait and belligerent rhetoric from Beijing, the results of the election will hold significant implications for the entire region.

How might the election affect cross-strait relations? What are the possible implications of the election for Australia? How could the election shift Taiwan policies in Washington and other allied capitals?

To answer these questions, please join us for a live panel discussion with Lowy Institute Senior Fellow for East Asia Richard McGregor, USSC Non-Resident Senior Fellow Dr Lavina Lee and USSC CEO Dr Michael Green in conversation with USSC Research Director Jared Mondschein, with opening remarks from Taiwanese Representative to Australia Douglas Hsu.

TYPE
Public event

WHERE
Auditorium, The Michael Spence Building (F23),
Corner of Eastern Avenue and City Rd, 
University of Sydney, Camperdown NSW

WHEN
7 December 2023, 6.00pm-7.30pm AEDT

BY THE NUMBERS

Does American foreign policy isolationism persist?

By Victoria Cooper, Research Editor

Polling by the United States Studies Centre (USSC) in 2023 reveals a mixed picture about Americans’ attitudes toward potential greater US military involvement in world affairs, but more resounding support for US foreign policies not involving its military. 

The plurality of Americans (45 per cent) support the United States reducing its military presence in allied nations, while 34 per cent oppose a reduction. Surprisingly, despite former president Trump’s more transactional approach to alliances and increased isolationist rhetoric in the Republic Party as well as President Biden’s championing of alliances, nearly half (48 per cent) of Trump voters oppose reducing the US troop presence in allied nations (only 38 per cent support a reduction), showing greater support for US military presence overseas than Biden voters at 42 per cent. 

Another finding shows more Americans agree (35 per cent) than disagree (26 per cent) with sending US forces to defend Taiwan if it were attacked by China. The margin of difference between those who agree rather than disagree has grown by seven percentage points since last year, where only two per cent more agreed (33 per cent) than disagreed (31 per cent) with sending US troops. However, at the same time, the percentage of Americans who don’t know how the United States should respond (16 per cent) to a Chinese attack on Taiwan has increased by nine percentage points since 2022. 

By contrast, when it comes to non-military foreign policies alongside like-minded countries, Americans are more resoundingly in agreement and support. In the same Taiwan contingency, 58 per cent of Americans agree with economically isolating China – 23 per cent more than those who agree with military involvement. Similarly, asked about other non-military foreign policies, such as US involvement in supporting developing democracies to hold democratic elections in Asia, 61 per cent of Americans support the idea, and when asked about holding China to account on human rights alongside like-minded countries, an even greater, 75 per cent agree. 

You can read the full findings from the USSC’s latest polling here: One year from the 2024 US presidential election: The stakes for Australia and the alliance. 

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

#HappyThanksgiving