NEWS WRAP

Still work to be done

• Signed, sealed… | President Biden signed the US$1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill into law on Monday, marking a major victory for the president’s first year in office. In addition to renewing a range of programs set to expire, the legislation provides US$550 billion of new federal spending for the nation’s infrastructure. But on the back of a month where US inflation hit a new 30-year high, and with the social spending proposals stuck in Congress, this critical legislative success has not boosted Biden’s approval rating. READ MORE HERE
   
• “Phase down” | At the eleventh hour of the two-week COP26 climate conference, the pledge to “phase out” coal was pared back to “phase down” causing angst among several countries and an emotional reaction from summit chair Alok Sharma. However, many argue the inclusion of an explicit mention of fossil fuels for the first time in the summit agreement is an even bigger victory, with US climate envoy John Kerry defending the wording as the only way to get an agreement. READ MORE HERE
   

• Kamala's damage control | Vice President Kamala Harris met with French President Emmanuel Macron this week for a “good and productive” trip to remedy and strengthen bruised diplomatic ties with the United States’ oldest ally after the AUKUS controversy. The meeting comes among growing speculation over Harris’ chances for presidency in 2024, a potential rift between the VP and the White House and accusations of dysfunction among the Harris team.  READ MORE HERE
   

• Taking down the Biden regime | Charged with contempt for defying a congressional subpoena, former Trump White House advisor Stephen Bannon surrendered to the FBI on Monday before warning he was “taking down the Biden regime”. Dozens of Trump aides have now been subpoenaed over their involvement in the January 6 insurrection with Bannon being among the most high profile.  Congressional Republicans are under pressure to support the former Trump team members under investigation.  READ MORE HERE 

ANALYSIS

In the case of conflict with China, check your Cold War analogies

Dr Charles Edel
Non-Resident Senior Fellow, United States Studies Centre

David O. Shullman
Senior Director of the Global China Hub, Atlantic Council

Nevertheless, the Cold War analogy shadows much of today’s discussions of Sino-American relations. Perhaps the most important question in this debate is whether China poses an ideological challenge akin to the one once presented by the Soviet Union.

It is rare that a debate over a historical analogy sits at the centre of contemporary foreign policy. And yet this not simply an academic dispute. Rather, the question carries significant implications for American national security.

The claim that China is less driven now than the Soviet Union was then to impose an ideological model on other countries has helped justify arguments that Beijing poses less of a challenge to democracies and is therefore less deserving of full-fledged systemic competition to defend open societies and individual rights. On the other hand, the claim that today’s China has wholly adopted Moscow’s old Cold War playbook overstates similarities in their approaches to spreading Marxist ideology, misdiagnoses the threat to liberal democracy and obscures what Beijing is actually attempting to accomplish.

Cold War comparisons work only with a clear understanding of how the Soviet Union attempted to export its ideology and impose its system of governance on countries around the world. Armed with that history, democracies can accurately see how the Soviet Union mirrored — and departed from — today’s China and better respond to Beijing’s challenge.

The Soviet Union’s goal was remarkably consistent: the violent overthrow of existing capitalistic governments and their replacement with communist regimes. From the outset, this goal was grounded in a Marxist ideology that aspired to be global in its reach. As early as 1850, German philosopher Karl Marx declared that “it is our interest and our task to make the revolution permanent,” with workers conquering state power “not only in one country but in all the leading countries of the world.”

This is an excerpt of an article first published by The Washington Post

BY THE NUMBERS

30 year inflation high

In the United States, October 2021 brought the highest rise annual inflation in the last 30 years with the Consumer Price Index increasing by 6.2 per cent year-on-year. Last week, President Biden conceded that COVID stimulus cheques played a part in the increase in inflation with the supply chain disruptions also being touted as a major cause. 

While at present, Australia's inflation rate is still within the Reserve Bank of Australia's target band, rising three per cent year on year during the September quarter, both the European Union and Canada exceeded inflation expectations rising 4.1 and 4.4 per cent respectively. 

THE ALLIANCE AT 70 |  The evolution of the alliance

The following is an excerpt by USSC CEO Professor Simon Jackman from the soon-to-be-released The Alliance at 70

Broder, closer challenges

Another transition is underway today, perhaps the most profound in the history of the Alliance. Australia’s regional neighbourhood – the Indo-Pacific – is host to rapid geostrategic change, chiefly driven by China’s assertiveness, ambition and authoritarianism, a decline in American power relative to other nations since the post-war establishment of American primacy, and an openly fractious debate within the United States about bearing the costs of global leadership. These dilemmas are especially acute for Australia, driving urgent, vigorous and clear-eyed assessments of Australia’s strategic circumstances and opening a new chapter for the Alliance.

China is challenging the liberal, post-Second World War order in a manner fundamentally different to the sometimes-existential challenge posed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War. The United States didn’t record massive trade deficits with the Soviet Union at any point in the Cold War as it does now with China, and as it has for decades. Similarly, at no point in the Cold War did Australia count the Soviet Union as its largest trading partner, nor far and away the largest destination for Australian exports. This makes China’s ‘economic coercion’ of Australia at least a plausible lever of statecraft, while never realistic for the Soviet Union through the Cold War.

China’s ambitions are broad, aspiring not merely for military modernisation and capabilities to deter adversaries, but for continued economic growth, technological primacy and deference, driving competition with the developed democracies across multiple domains.

China’s displeasure with recent Australian policies and announcements is well known. In recent years, China has either imposed tariffs or imposed a mix of official and unofficial restrictions or bans on an array of Australian exports: barley, wine, beef and coal chief among them. Prices for some of these commodities have soared in China as a consequence, most notably for coal, a testament to its resolve and capacity to bear the costs of acting on its displeasure with Australia.

VIDEO

Sky News interview: US and China historic climate deal

United States Studies Centre CEO Professor Simon Jackman spoke to Sky News on Monday to discuss the surprising historic climate agreement between the United States and China ahead of the virtual meeting between President Xi and President Biden. 

Catch more analysis on the United States on the USSC YouTube channel.

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

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