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19 January
One year on, what's changed?
Tomorrow marks one complete year of the Biden administration, which is as good a time as ever to look back on how the administration has fared so far.
Before assuming office on 20 January 2021, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris said they had five immediate priorities: COVID-19, racial equity, climate change, immigration and the economy.
The Biden administration proudly points to 63 per cent of Americans being vaccinated, redoubled efforts addressing voter suppression and climate change, the passing of economic stimulus measures which saw US child poverty decrease by nearly 30 per cent and more jobs added in the first year of this administration than any prior.
Critics, on the other hand, point out more Americans died from COVID-19 in 2021 than in 2020, the path forward for civil rights and environmental legislation looks uncertain at best, many of the Trump administration’s immigration restrictions remain in place, and inflation and supply chain concerns have Americans far more pessimistic about the economy in 2022 than they were when the Biden administration began. Biden’s approval rating has fallen close to the record lows recorded by Trump at the same stage of his presidency.
Meanwhile, Republicans look increasingly likely to regain control of the US House of Representatives, and possibly the Senate too, in November’s midterm elections. Trump’s hold over the GOP is as strong as ever. The 2024 Republican presidential nomination appears to be Trump’s for the taking. Across the United States, numerous Republican-controlled state legislatures are passing laws that purport to help secure elections, but are making voter registration and turnout more burdensome, with effects widely expected to fall disproportionately on Democratic voters.
We’ll be discussing all this in our first webinar of the year tomorrow: What to expect in politics and policy in 2022. In addition to a survey of where US politics is going in 2022, we will also examine what lies ahead on policy matters of vital importance to Australian national interests, including US defence spending, the nomination of Caroline Kennedy as Ambassador to Australia and progress on implementing AUKUS. We hope you can join us.
Sincerely,
Prof Simon Jackman
CEO, United States Studies Centre
NEWS WRAP
Thinking ahead
- Omicron nearing end? | New York, one of the states hit earliest and hardest by COVID-19, seems to be “turning a corner” according to New York Governor Kathy Hochul. The rolling seven-day average in New York City is now 28,000, down from 40,000 average cases. The state's positivity rate has dropped from 23 per cent in the first week of January to 16.3 per cent. But while cases may be dropping in several states, the number of hospitalisations continue to overwhelm healthcare workers across the country. READ MORE HERE
- The incoming storm in Ukraine | Bad weather may have stalled the 100,000 Russian troops stationed along the Ukraine border, but it has not slowed down US diplomatic negotiations, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken set to continue talks later this week. Putin’s next move is uncertain, but cyberattacks on the websites of several Ukrainian ministries, the hacking of several power grids across the North Atlantic, and requests to move US nuclear weapons reveal just how far-reaching the consequences of Putin’s plans might be. READ MORE HERE
- A new path for voting rights | After a year where Democrat-sponsored voting rights reforms failed to get a vote in the Senate, looking for a way forward Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) might amend an unrelated bill to evade the filibuster and pass voting rights legislation with a simple majority. While this strategy has no guarantees, the idea of reforming the 1887 Electoral Count Act might be a more effective alternative, garnering support from 12 members on both sides of Congress. READ MORE HERE
- How to win the next election | Republican Glenn Youngkin was sworn in as Virginia’s governor, replacing Democratic governor Ralph Northam. Echoing President Biden’s executive order blitz on his first day in office, Youngkin wasted no time in issuing 11 executive orders on everything from critical race theory to mask mandates. But his election hinged on a new GOP playbook appealing to moderates while welcoming Trump supporters. This success in Virginia sets the tone for swing state battlegrounds in the November midterms. READ MORE HERE
5G grounded | CEOs of major US airlines warned, “the vast majority of the travelling and shipping public will essentially be grounded,” due to concerns the 5G rollout on Wednesday could disrupt frequencies needed for aircraft landing. In response, wireless companies AT&T and Verizon agreed to limit installations of 5G towers near airports until security issues were resolved, but it has raised questions about similar impacts in other countries around the world. READ MORE HERE
We are going to debate voting rights. We are going to debate it, and, in the Senate, you know we need 60 votes to break a Republican filibuster ... but since we only have 50 Democrats in our razor-thin majority, the only path forward on this important issue is to change the rules to bypass the filibuster
Remarks by Senator Chuck Schumer | 18 January 2022
WEBINAR | 20 January 2022
What to expect in US politics and policy in 2022
On the one-year anniversary of President Biden’s inauguration, experts from the United States Studies Centre will give their take on what to expect in US politics and policy in 2022. President Biden’s supporters posit that, in passing the American Rescue Plan Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, he has already accomplished more first-year legislative wins than any president in generations. Yet amid questions of competence following the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal, inflation rates the highest in decades, the prospect of the most significant changes in abortion law in nearly half a century, and ever-worsening poll numbers potentially foreshadowing a GOP takeover in the midterms, President Biden and the Democrats are undeniably on the defensive.
What are the issues likely to dominate US politics and the midterm elections in 2022? What comes of the Biden administration’s policy agenda if Republicans take back control of Congress? What issues should Australians keep an eye on?
To discuss these issues, please join us for a webinar discussion with USSC politics experts, Senior Lecturer in US Politics and Foreign Policy Dr Gorana Grgic, Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe and Senior Research Fellow Jared Mondschein in conversation with CEO Professor Simon Jackman.
WHEN:
SYDNEY | Thursday, 20 January 2022 | 9:00-10:00am AEDT
WASHINGTON DC | Wednesday, 19 January 2022 | 5:00-6:00pm EST
COST:
Free but registration is essential.
You can also subscribe to have event invitations and reminders sent straight to your inbox, so you never have to miss an event!
ANALYSIS
Caroline Kennedy brings White House closer
Stephen Loosley,
AM
Non-Resident Senior Fellow, United States Studies Centre
It was prime minister Bob Menzies who told president Lyndon B. Johnson bluntly but accurately what the simple requirement happened to be for an effective US ambassador to Australia. The ambassador had to have the ability, Menzies told LBJ, to pick up the phone and talk directly to the US president. After all, under the US system, ambassadors represent their presidents and serve at their discretion.
LBJ understood Menzies’ advice. His chosen ambassador to Australia was one Texan, Ed Clark, known colloquially within the Austin political establishment as “Mr Ed”. The Australian media tended to regard Clark as something of a yokel. After all, didn’t the folksy ambassador turn up at the opening of Pine Gap carrying one peppercorn to pay the annual rent? But Clark was very significant in LBJ’s political universe and more than once he had literally carried the bag of campaign cash for Johnson during his congressional and presidential campaigns. He enjoyed the president’s absolute confidence.
This had been tested during one campaign where the future ambassador left his briefcase under the table in a remote Texas roadhouse in the early hours of the morning. Returning to the road, Clark realised his mistake and frantically drove back to find the briefcase intact. It contained $50,000.
Australia has been well served by US ambassadors in Canberra...
But the main current problem for the US diplomatic service is the appallingly slow process by which nominees are confirmed or rejected by the US Senate. Delaying tactics are practised by both sides of the aisle in Washington, but it has assumed disturbing proportions of late as Senator Ted Cruz (Rep-TX) holds up nominations until he can strike a deal on an issue of concern to him. At the end of last year, some 30-odd nominees were released from Senate gridlock after majority leader Senator Chuck Schumer (Dem-NY) agreed to bring to a vote Cruz’s opposition to the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. In Washington DC, it is sometimes called the Molotov-Ribbentrop pipeline to register maximum distaste. But Cruz won the point.
It’s appalling at a time when the United States is required to demonstrate greater political and diplomatic leadership its Senate treats the appointment of its representatives abroad with such cavalier disdain. Such capricious indulgence is a stain upon Washington DC.
These are excerpts from an article published by The Australian.
BY THE NUMBERS
COVID peaking in NY and NSW?
Health experts in both New York and New South Wales are cautiously optimistic that Omicron cases appear to be peaking based on the number of test results returning positive cases. Last week New South Wales recorded a seven-day average of 32 per cent of positive tests - the highest percentage throughout the pandemic.
New York's latest outbreak looks to be slowing with the highest seven-day average rate of positive tests recorded on 5 January at 22 per cent, the highest percentage seen since 2020 in the state.
Read more By the numbers analysis here
VIDEO
A conversation with author David Kilcullen
In June 2020, the United States Studies Centre hosted a webinar event featuring Dr David Kilcullen, author of The Dragons and the Snakes: How the Rest Learned to Fight the West, in discussion with USSC CEO Prof Simon Jackman.
Dr Kilcullen shared his perspective that the risk of organised, civil violence in the United States was far more widespread and potentially more dangerous than commonly thought, especially in the lead up to the 2020 Presidential election. The January 6 insurrection would surely prove him right six months later.
You can watch the webinar with Dr Kilcullen here, and catch more analysis on the United States on the USSC YouTube channel.
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Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006
